NFL Net Yards Per Play: Ravens A Buy-Low Candidate?
While you’re handicapping NFL Week 6 odds, you may be in search of a new tool to apply to your step-by-step process. If so, NFL yards per play (YPP) is one that should be near the top of your checklist. Net yards per play — the difference between offensive and defensive performance on a per-play basis — gives a solid look at a team’s overall strength.
This report will be updated following each week of action and contains each team’s yards per play results on offense and defense, respectively. The “last three weeks” column captures the teams’ current form. If you see fit, one could be worth investing in for futures. You’ll want to look for undervalued teams, ones whose per-play strength isn’t reflected in their final scores due to luck or other factors.
Ahead of NFL Week 6 action, the Ravens rank among the best teams in NFL yards per play despite the ugly loss in Pittsburgh. We’ll take a look at their prospects, as well as those of a couple of other teams, including the possibly ascendant Jaguars.
NFL yards per play Explained
Yards per play — or YPP — is a handy metric for NFL bettors since it eliminates unpredictable variables, including turnovers, botched kicks, and scores via special teams. Ignoring randomness is a critical part of handicapping any sport. Therefore, yards per play on both sides of the ball helps indicate where a team is in the short term. Generally speaking, you will rarely find a below .500 team in the upper echelon of these rankings.
But like EPA, teams may be overvalued in the betting market if their YPP surges positively over a small sample size. You will see that various units — offensively, defensively, or both — benefited from playing weak competition in their first affair of the 2023 campaign. In turn, their output could be mis-contextualized.
Conversely, a team outperforming expectations against a presumably elite opponent is likely a sign of a positive trajectory.
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NFL Yards Per Play: Offense, Defense And Net
Here are the current yards per play numbers before Week 6 action. Conventional wisdom says dividing the net yards per play difference by 0.15 gives an approximate spread between two teams.
Furthermore, keep in mind that the more or fewer plays a team runs/defends, these numbers could wind up skewed in either direction.
|Team||YPP||Opponent YPP||Net YPP||Last 3 Weeks NYPP|
Standout Teams In NFL yards per play
On the surface, the Ravens had one of the more poor performances in Week 5. They dropped a game on the road to the Steelers as -4.5 favorites.
However, digging a little deeper, the Ravens soundly outgained the Steelers, 5 YPP to 4.4. Drops and turnovers conspired to doom them.
Despite many injuries, Baltimore has maintained solid ratios on both sides of the ball. They could represent a buy-low opportunity as they continue to get healthier but languish with just an OK record.
That’s particularly true, with the rest of the AFC failing to run away from them and not looking quite as strong as many expected. The AFC North, in particular, has looked a bit rough. Baltimore has a very clear path to winning the division, with road wins already in the bank against Cincinnati and Cleveland. Pittsburgh has a negative point differential and terrible YPP numbers.
Even the No. 1 is not out of reach, with Kansas City and Miami the only 4-1 teams.
Other Teams Of Note
Another hopeful AFC contender, the Jacksonville Jaguars, banked a huge win in London against the Bills on Sunday. Should bettors be buying in that they’re turning their season around?
The signals appear mixed.
NFL yards per play numbers don’t really flatter them in the aftermath. Not only do their season-long numbers stink, but the Bills actually outgained them, 7.2 YPP to 5.8. At the same time, much of that came during desperation time, so we have to take those numbers with at least some salt.
A win over the Colts as favorites would give the Jags a massive leg up on the division, having swept Indy. Divisional odds of are worth a look if you like them in that spot.
Note the “last three weeks” number on the Chargers as well. With the Miami game off the ledger, LA now looks like one of the stronger teams in the league. However, keep in mind they’re not only working Austin Ekeler back from injury, but Justin Herbert also injured his non-throwing hand. Another poor performance from them could bring significant value to the table if the markets keep dropping.
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