NFL Net Yards Per Play: 49ers Finally Ascend To Top Of Board

, ,
Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL yards per play

San Francisco 49ers odds spent several weeks at the top of Super Bowl futures and NFL power rankings, looking like an absolute juggernaut since emerging from their bye and destroying the Jaguars in Jacksonville. NFL net yards per play data finally reflects that reality after they surpassed the Miami Dolphins. We’ll dive in on the 49ers and look at an NFC South team that may be playing better than recent results indicate.

While you’re handicapping NFL Week 15 odds, you may be searching for a new tool to apply to your step-by-step process. If so, yards per play (YPP) should be near the top of your checklist. NFL net yards per play — the difference between offensive and defensive performance on a per-play basis — gives a solid look at a team’s overall strength.

This report will be updated following each week of action and contains each team’s yards per play results on offense and defense, respectively. The “last three weeks” column captures the teams’ current form. If you see fit, one could be worth investing in for futures. You’ll want to look for undervalued teams whose per-play strength isn’t reflected in their final scores due to luck or other factors.

Click below to place a wager at the best sports betting sites. The prices below represent the best available in your state.

Play FREE Touchdown Bingo! Compete for prizes every NFL Sunday by picking touchdown scorers.

NFL NET yards per play Explained

Yards per play — or YPP — is a handy metric for NFL bettors since it eliminates unpredictable variables, including turnovers, botched kicks, and scores via special teams. Ignoring randomness is a critical part of handicapping any sport. Therefore, yards per play on both sides of the ball helps indicate where a team is in the short term. Generally speaking, you will rarely find a below .500 team in the upper echelon of these rankings.

But like EPA, teams may be overvalued in the betting market if their YPP surges positively over a small sample size. You will see that various units — offensively, defensively, or both — benefit from playing weak competition over arbitrary samples. In turn, their output could be mis-contextualized.

Conversely, a team outperforming expectations against a presumably elite opponent is likely a sign of a positive trajectory.

NFL Yards Per Play: Offense, Defense And Net

Here are the current yards per play numbers before Week 15 action. Conventional wisdom says dividing the net yards per play difference by 0.15 gives an approximate spread between two teams.

Furthermore, keep in mind that the more or fewer plays a team runs/defends, these numbers could wind up skewed in either direction. This table can be sorted by clicking on the headers.

TeamYards Per PlayOpponent YPPNet YPPLast 3 Weeks NYPP

49ers Finally The Efficiency Kings

For weeks, the 49ers could have been called the uncrowned kings of the NFL. They ranked as the top team in Super Bowl futures and topped market power ratings easily.

But, the head start the Miami Dolphins had engineered with results like a 70-20 over the Broncos had them in rarified yards-per-play air.

Following multiple weeks of dominant performances, though, the 49ers inched by them. This is the best offense in the NFL by some margin, especially considering the Dolphins no longer have a healthy Tyreek Hill.

The latest showcase came on Sunday against Seattle. The Niners posted a whopping 9.9 YPP, somehow only scoring 28 points in a no-doubter bad beat for team total over bettors. Only once since the team came out of the bye healthy have the 49ers tallied below 7 YPP on offense (the prior Seattle game at 5.8).

With the Cowboys-Eagles result from Week 14 also falling San Francisco’s way, the path has become clear for this team to secure the NFC No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Sure, San Francisco probably doesn’t rate as the toughest place to play, but still. Everything appears aligned for a 49ers Super Bowl run, with the only possible speed bump a home game against Baltimore in Week 16.

This looks like the year Kyle Shanahan finally puts past Super Bowl failures behind him. The price on 49ers odds certainly says so, but is there any value to be had on the clear-cut favorites?

49ers Upcoming Schedule

New York Jets 7 – 10 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 9, 2024
Minnesota Vikings 7 – 10 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Los Angeles Rams 10 – 7 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

49ers Week 15 Odds

San Francisco 49ers Futures & Week 15 Props

San Francisco 49ers Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles

Buy Falcons Low After Key Divisional Loss?

If NFL net yards per play is any judge, the Falcons should be close to celebrating their NFC South division crown.

Instead, they’re left scratching their heads and wondering how on earth they managed to lose to the Buccaneers at home with a monster +2 YPP differential (6.3 to 4.3). With a solid running game and defense a given, any game in which Desmond Ridder slings for 347 yards on 8.7 YPP should end in a Falcons victory.

Unfortunately for the Falcons, poor special teams (two missed kicks) and a cheapo 8-yard TD drive after a Ridder interception sank them.

Still, bettors may have a reason for optimism when looking at Falcons futures (see odds below).

The Saints got what appeared to be a dominant win against Carolina, but they actually played an awful game, gaining just 207 yards and skating by on turnovers, including a blocked punt for six. Derek Carr and this offense haven’t looked right in weeks.

And the Buccaneers have one of the worst NFL net yards per play differentials in the league.

No longer clear favorites, this may be an opportunity to buy low-ish on an Atlanta team that’s probably the best of this sad bunch in what’s currently a three-way tie headed by Tampa.

Falcons Upcoming Schedule

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – 7 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Philadelphia Eagles 11 – 6 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 16, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs 11 – 6 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Falcons Week 15 Odds

Atlanta Falcons Futures & Week 15 Props

Atlanta Falcons Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles

watch: beat the closing number

You can subscribe to the audio-only version of the show on AppleSpotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

NFL betting promos

If you’re in a state with legal sports wagering, TheLines has you covered with the best sportsbook promo codes. Just click on any of the following promos and bonus codes to get started.