NFL Net Yards Per Play: Chiefs, Eagles Slipping?

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
nfl net yards per play

The Eagles just keep winning, but in the middle of Week 13, they are shocking home underdogs. Do NFL net yards per play offer a hint as to why? We’ll go over the numbers there, as well as those of one of the teams the Eagles recently beat, the Kansas City Chiefs.

While you’re handicapping NFL Week 13 odds, you may be searching for a new tool to apply to your step-by-step process. If so, yards per play (YPP) should be near the top of your checklist. NFL net yards per play — the difference between offensive and defensive performance on a per-play basis — gives a solid look at a team’s overall strength.

This report will be updated following each week of action and contains each team’s yards per play results on offense and defense, respectively. The “last three weeks” column captures the teams’ current form. If you see fit, one could be worth investing in for futures. You’ll want to look for undervalued teams whose per-play strength isn’t reflected in their final scores due to luck or other factors.

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NFL yards per play Explained

Yards per play — or YPP — is a handy metric for NFL bettors since it eliminates unpredictable variables, including turnovers, botched kicks, and scores via special teams. Ignoring randomness is a critical part of handicapping any sport. Therefore, yards per play on both sides of the ball helps indicate where a team is in the short term. Generally speaking, you will rarely find a below .500 team in the upper echelon of these rankings.

But like EPA, teams may be overvalued in the betting market if their YPP surges positively over a small sample size. You will see that various units — offensively, defensively, or both — benefit from playing weak competition over arbitrary samples. In turn, their output could be mis-contextualized.

Conversely, a team outperforming expectations against a presumably elite opponent is likely a sign of a positive trajectory.

NFL Yards Per Play: Offense, Defense And Net

Here are the current yards per play numbers before Week 13 action. Conventional wisdom says dividing the net yards per play difference by 0.15 gives an approximate spread between two teams.

Furthermore, keep in mind that the more or fewer plays a team runs/defends, these numbers could wind up skewed in either direction. This table can be sorted by clicking on the headers.

TeamYards Per PlayOpponent YPPNet YPPLast 3 Weeks NYPP

Market Right To Doubt Eagles?

At 10-1, the Eagles would seem to be in the most plum situation possible. They sit with a two-game cushion atop the NFC for the bye and home-field advantage. They’re largely healthy, missing TE Dallas Goedert and possibly star RT Lane Johnson this week. And having already advanced to the Super Bowl last season, they have playoff experience and know-how.

However, advanced metrics have remained skeptical. DVOA has been unimpressed with the Eagles all season. And market ratings have notably not given the Eagles the respect that their record and the general public view would imply. To wit, they’re home underdogs against the 49ers in Week 13. They project as underdogs next week in Dallas. That would make three of four weeks in which the Eagles have a plus by their name at your sportsbook of choice.

NFL yards per play may offer a clue as to why. Now, facing off with teams like the Chiefs and Bills, one can easily give the Eagles a pass for their -0.2 net YPP the past three games. However, the +0.2 for the season tells a possibly more troubling story. This team simply isn’t dominating the opposition like a championship favorite should.

Now, facing a 49ers team that is dominating to a staggering degree out of its bye (+2.5 NYPP!), are the Eagles due for a fall? The market says yes.

Eagles Upcoming Schedule

Green Bay Packers 9 – 8 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 6, 2024
Atlanta Falcons 7 – 10 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 16, 2024
New Orleans Saints 9 – 8 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Eagles Week 13 Odds

Philadelphia Eagles Futures & Week 13 Props

Philadelphia Eagles Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles

Will Chiefs Earn Top Seed?

Where things are about to get a whole lot harder for the Eagles, the Chiefs find themselves in the opposite situation. They’ve played one of the more difficult schedules in the league — only Steelers opponents have a higher winning percentage — but now face one of the easiest closing stretches. Per Tankathon, only three teams face opponents with a lower winning percentage. Since one of those is the Bengals, that may even overstate the difficulty.

So, where does that leave the Chiefs?

Probably in quite a good position to cash AFC No. 1 seed odds. If Kansas City takes care of business as favorites this week in Green Bay, they’ll be tied with the Ravens (on bye) at 9-3.

Everything down the stretch favors the Chiefs. The Ravens have the most difficult closing schedule in the league, with the 49ers, Jaguars and Dolphins still remaining. And the Chiefs have a sizable tiebreaker edge with just one conference loss, while Baltimore has two.

And the teams chasing the Chiefs may be in even worse shape to overtake them. Both Jacksonville and Miami already lost to K.C., meaning the tiebreaker is cinched in the Chiefs’ favor.

At , the Chiefs may offer value to host yet another string of playoff games this January.

Chiefs Upcoming Schedule

Baltimore Ravens 13 – 4 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 5, 2024
Cincinnati Bengals 9 – 8 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Atlanta Falcons 7 – 10 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Chiefs Week 13 Odds

Kansas City Chiefs Futures & Week 13 Props

Kansas City Chiefs Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles

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