NFL Net Yards Per Play: Buffalo Bills Still A Super Bowl Contender?

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL Net yards per play NYPP Week 11

Ahead of NFL Week 11 action, the entirety of NFL observers seem to be down on the Buffalo Bills. Their odds to make the NFL playoffs have plummeted to well below 50/50. However, NFL yards per play data still looks incredibly bullish on the bereaved Bills. We’ll look at how their recent weeks have shaken out, as well as the prognosis of an AFC South team that looked in a cozy position a week ago.

While you’re handicapping NFL Week 11 odds, you may be searching for a new tool to apply to your step-by-step process. If so, NFL yards per play (YPP) should be near the top of your checklist. Net yards per play — the difference between offensive and defensive performance on a per-play basis — gives a solid look at a team’s overall strength.

This report will be updated following each week of action and contains each team’s yards per play results on offense and defense, respectively. The “last three weeks” column captures the teams’ current form. If you see fit, one could be worth investing in for futures. You’ll want to look for undervalued teams whose per-play strength isn’t reflected in their final scores due to luck or other factors.

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NFL yards per play Explained

Yards per play — or YPP — is a handy metric for NFL bettors since it eliminates unpredictable variables, including turnovers, botched kicks, and scores via special teams. Ignoring randomness is a critical part of handicapping any sport. Therefore, yards per play on both sides of the ball helps indicate where a team is in the short term. Generally speaking, you will rarely find a below .500 team in the upper echelon of these rankings.

But like EPA, teams may be overvalued in the betting market if their YPP surges positively over a small sample size. You will see that various units — offensively, defensively, or both — benefited from playing weak competition in their first affair of the 2023 campaign. In turn, their output could be mis-contextualized.

Conversely, a team outperforming expectations against a presumably elite opponent is likely a sign of a positive trajectory.

NFL Yards Per Play: Offense, Defense And Net

Here are the current yards per play numbers before Week 11 action. Conventional wisdom says dividing the net yards per play difference by 0.15 gives an approximate spread between two teams.

Furthermore, keep in mind that the more or fewer plays a team runs/defends, these numbers could wind up skewed in either direction. This table is sortable by clicking on the headers.

TeamYards Per PlayYPP AllowedNet YPPLast 3 Weeks NYPP

Bills Still NFL Yards Per Play Monsters

Another week, another crushing defeat for the Buffalo Bills. This time, they lost at home to a non-contending Denver Broncos team. Talking heads across the country are burying this team. It’s been quite a fall for a team that, about 15 months ago, was a consensus Super Bowl favorite and near-unanimous pick for the team with the best roster in football.

And yet … the Bills outgained the Broncos by a whopping 2.9 YPP. That would imply a nearly 20-point win via the formula above.

In fact, not only has the Bills’ collapse coincided with a +1.4 NYPP margin over their past three weeks, but their overall number still ranks in the top 10. EPA/play metrics rank the offense third in the NFL.

Turnovers have sunk the offense. And while one might be tempted to ascribe the turnovers to a Josh Allen-led team and say it’s a fatal flaw, PFF’s grading tells another story. Their (admittedly subjective) numbers have Allen tied for the seventh-lowest rate of turnover-worthy plays of any high-volume QB.

If the Bills are to turn this around, they’ll have to do it against a bear of a schedule. In addition to the gauntlet below, the Bills still play the Cowboys, Chargers, and Dolphins. The latter two take place on the road.

So, the road to a comeback will be grueling. But, if the Bills can pull it off and make a push, they’ll be dangerous against anyone, as their NFL yards per play metrics illustrate.

Buffalo Bills Upcoming Schedule

Arizona Cardinals 4 – 13 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Miami Dolphins 11 – 6 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 12, 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – 8 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 23, 2024

Bills Week 11 Odds

Bills Futures & Week 11 Props

Buffalo Bills Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles

Will Jaguars Holds Off Texans?

A week ago, it looked like the Jaguars had a hammerlock on the division. They were multiple games up on the Texans, with the only fly in the ointment being the home loss that gave the Texans a looming chance to sweep the season series.

Still, as long as the Jaguars took care of business against an easy schedule and Houston kept playing .500 football, there was little cause for concern in Duval County.

Well, Week 10 may have created cause. Not only did Houston beat would-be contenders Cincinnati on the road, but Jacksonville got utterly obliterated by the 49ers at home.

And the results were anything but flukeish. CJ Stroud destroyed the Bengals’ defense for 7.4 YPP. Only an ugly but out-of-character late turnover let the Bengals make it a game. Meanwhile, the 49ers so thoroughly dominated the Jaguars (7.3 YPP to 4.1) that they literally spent a late red-zone possession shamelessly trying to game up a touchdown for Christian McCaffrey to keep his record-tying streak alive (it didn’t work).

It was the continuation of a season-long trend of Jacksonville underperforming its talent level and having metrics that don’t match its record. Despite high preseason expectations and a still fairly lofty NFL power ranking of No. 11 from the staff here, the Jags haven’t had a convincing season. Even their big win over Buffalo came with an unprecedented travel/body clock advantage.

With Houston now on their tails, the AFC South looks far from decided.

Jaguars Texans Upcoming Schedule

Miami Dolphins 11 – 6 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Cleveland Browns 11 – 6 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Buffalo Bills 11 – 6 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 23, 2024

Jaguars Week 11 Odds

Jacksonville Jaguars Futures & Week 11 Props

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles

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