NFL Net Yards Per Play: Packers, Texans Surge After Underdog Wins

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL yards per play

Two of the teams showing the strongest recent form are two of the teams the market least expected to reach this point. Both the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans, powered by star young QBs, sprung upsets in the wild card playoffs. They posted eye-opening NFL net yards per play stats and have found the type of recent form that intrigues longshot bettors.

While you’re handicapping NFL playoffs odds, you may be searching for a new tool to apply to your step-by-step process. If so, yards per play (YPP) should be near the top of your checklist. NFL net yards per play — the difference between offensive and defensive performance on a per-play basis — gives a solid look at a team’s overall strength.

This report will be updated following each week of action and contains each team’s yards per play results on offense and defense, respectively. The “last three weeks” column captures the teams’ current form. If you see fit, one could be worth investing in for futures. You’ll want to look for undervalued teams whose per-play strength isn’t reflected in their final scores due to luck or other factors.

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NFL NET yards per play Explained

Yards per play — or YPP — is a handy metric for NFL bettors since it eliminates unpredictable variables, including turnovers, botched kicks, and scores via special teams. Ignoring randomness is a critical part of handicapping any sport. Therefore, yards per play on both sides of the ball helps indicate where a team is in the short term. Generally speaking, you will rarely find a below .500 team in the upper echelon of these rankings.

But like EPA, teams may be overvalued in the betting market if their YPP surges positively over a small sample size. You will see that various units — offensively, defensively, or both — benefit from playing weak competition over arbitrary samples. In turn, their output could be mis-contextualized.

Conversely, a team outperforming expectations against a presumably elite opponent is likely a sign of a positive trajectory.

NFL Yards Per Play: Offense, Defense And Net

Here are the current yards per play numbers before NFL divisional action. Conventional wisdom says dividing the net yards per play difference by 0.15 gives an approximate spread between two teams.

Furthermore, keep in mind that the more or fewer plays a team runs/defends, these numbers could wind up skewed in either direction. This table can be sorted by clicking on the headers.

TeamYards Per PlayOpponent YPPNet YPPLast 3 Weeks NYPP
49ers6.651.61
Dolphins6.45.11.3-1.3
Ravens5.94.61.30.4
Chiefs5.54.70.81.4
Bills5.75.10.6-0.1
Cowboys5.65.20.40.1
Lions5.95.60.3-0.3
Vikings5.55.20.30.1
Rams5.75.40.30.3
Texans5.55.20.31.3
Packers5.75.40.32.1
Falcons5.250.20.7
Browns4.84.70.1-0.5
Seahawks5.55.500
Colts5.25.20-0.3
Eagles5.45.5-0.1-1
Patriots4.64.7-0.10.1
Saints5.15.3-0.2-1.4
Jaguars5.25.4-0.20.9
Bears55.3-0.3-0.2
Jets4.34.6-0.30
Buccaneers5.15.4-0.31
Titans4.95.2-0.3-0.4
Raiders4.95.2-0.3-0.2
Steelers55.4-0.4-0.1
Chargers5.15.5-0.4-0.6
Cardinals5.25.7-0.50
Broncos55.8-0.8-0.5
Bengals5.26-0.8-1.2
Panthers4.14.9-0.8-0.5
Commanders55.9-0.9-1.2
Giants4.55.6-1.1-0.1

Packers Crush Cowboys, Try To Continue Cinderella Run

The Packers have caught fire at the right time. Their +2.1 “last three games” advantage in NFL net yards per play leads the NFL by a large margin.

And all three came against something resembling respectable opposition, at least aside from the Vikings offense helmed by Jaren Hall for a half.

A Chicago team that has performed in the league’s top half for multiple months got turned to mincemeat by Jordan Love. The Packers did whatever they wanted on offense in that game (7.2 YPP), but red-zone flubs limited them to 17 points.

No such thing happened against Dallas. The Packers finished drives (4-for-4 red zone) and gained another 7.7 YPP. Limiting an explosive Dallas offense to 5.7 YPP meant they wound up a whopping +2 in a game where they closed touchdown underdogs.

Aaron Jones and the offensive line getting healthy have been key factors. Jones has ripped off four straight games with 100+ yards. He averaged at least 5 YPA in all four. Facing a 49ers team that ranks in the bottom 10 in both EPA/play and Success Rate allowed on the ground, Jones and the Packers must keep that streak if they hope to continue this run.

San Francisco has been something of a playoff dragon for Green Bay recently. They’ve eliminated them four times dating to 2013. However, relatively few Packers remain from the team that lost even just two years ago. The offense has been completely remade.

We’ll see if the new version of the Packers can do what others couldn’t: stop this menacing ground game.

Packers Playoffs Odds

Green Bay Packers Futures & Divisional Playoffs Props

Green Bay Packers Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
Jordan Love – QB 1764.2%4,159244.611.2321195.4
Sean Clifford – QB 2100.0%3718.537.000118.8
Player GP Games Played ATT Rushing Attempts YDS Rushing Yards YDS/C Yards Per Carry YDS/G Rushing Yards Per Game TDS Rushing Touchdowns
Aaron Jones – RB 111426564.659.62
AJ Dillon – RB 151786133.440.92
Jordan Love – QB 17502474.914.54
Patrick Taylor – RB 11321414.412.80
Jayden Reed – WR 161111910.87.42
Emanuel Wilson – RB 714856.112.10
Bo Melton – WR 53217.04.20
Christian Watson – WR 94112.81.20
Dontayvion Wicks – WR 15111.00.10
Sean Clifford – QB 23-2-0.7-1.00
Player GP Games Played TGTS Targets REC Receptions YDS Receiving Yards CTP% Catch Percentage YDS/R Yards Per Reception YAC/G Yards After Catch Per Game TDS Receiving Touchdowns
Jayden Reed – WR 16946479368.1%12.420.98
Romeo Doubs – WR 17965967461.5%11.47.98
Dontayvion Wicks – WR 15583958167.2%14.914.14
Christian Watson – WR 9532842252.8%15.111.75
Tucker Kraft – TE 17403135577.5%11.513.62
Luke Musgrave – TE 11463435273.9%10.415.41
Aaron Jones – RB 11433023369.8%7.824.61
AJ Dillon – RB 15282222378.6%10.115.40
Bo Melton – WR 5241621866.7%13.67.41
Malik Heath – WR 13241512562.5%8.32.71
Samori Toure – WR 111887844.4%9.81.60
Josiah Deguara – TE 158865100.0%8.12.60
Patrick Taylor – RB 1117114964.7%4.55.40
Emanuel Wilson – RB 7542380.0%5.84.30
Ben Sims – TE 17642166.7%5.31.11
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles
Rashan Gary – LB 1700229442321
Preston Smith – LB 1700208482820
Kenny Clark – DL 1700208442222
Karl Brooks – DL 170012420119
Lukas Van Ness – LB 170000432248
Quay Walker – LB 14100031185959
Kingsley Enagbare – LB 1700112352510
Jonathan Owens – S 1700111735221
Keisean Nixon – CB 1710011795821
Isaiah McDuffie – LB 1600001825230
Colby Wooden – DL 170000117107
Darnell Savage – S 1000000513516
Rudy Ford – S 1320010684424
De’Vondre Campbell – LB 1100010754629
Jaire Alexander – CB 70010028253
Eric Wilson – LB 170000020911
Brenton Cox Jr. – LB 400000000
Corey Ballentine – CB 1010000392712
Kristian Welch – LB 1400000000
Eric Stokes – CB 200000651
T.J. Slaton – DL 1700000492227
Carrington Valentine – CB 150001041329
Robert Rochell – CB 100000000
Devonte Wyatt – DL 300000110
Zayne Anderson – S 1000000000

Stroud, Texans Rout Highly-Rated Browns D

Only two teams (Ravens, Chiefs) allowed fewer than the 5.5 YPA the Browns conceded through the air in 2023.

So, what did CJ Stroud do in his playoff debut? Post a staggering 13 YPA dropping back. Stroud barely missed a perfect passer rating in one of the most emphatic playoff arrivals seen in years.

Keep in mind that a couple of things sully Houston’s numbers. For starters, the season opened with a couple of losses as Stroud got his feet under him. Second, the two-game stretch that Stroud missed in concussion protocol dragged the numbers down some. They still beat Tennessee in one of the games, but 4.8 YPA passing doesn’t do the stats any favors.

Houston is hitting its stride again on offense, but they do now face the aforementioned Ravens. Not only does the team enter well-rested off the bye, but they get more than a week to target what has become a pretty one-dimensional offense. The Texans don’t run the ball well at all, and thanks to injuries to pass catchers Tank Dell and Noah Brown, only a couple of high-value targets remain in Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz.

Can Texans Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik work more magic here? The Ravens have their own young mastermind behind the defense in Mike Macdonald.

On paper, this looks like a very difficult situation for Stroud. He’s going from playing indoors at home to outside in possibly bad NFL weather against a top-rated, rested defense. Bettors would do well to keep expectations in check here even after the tremendous showing. Many past wild card victors have faltered in this spot.

Texans Playoffs Odds

Houston Texans Futures & Divisional Playoff Props

Houston Texans Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
C.J. Stroud – QB 1563.9%4,108273.912.923596.0
Tim Boyle – QB 362.3%360120.07.51454.2
Case Keenum – QB 264.2%291145.58.61339.7
Davis Mills – QB 646.2%17328.89.62037.0
Player GP Games Played ATT Rushing Attempts YDS Rushing Yards YDS/C Yards Per Carry YDS/G Rushing Yards Per Game TDS Rushing Touchdowns
Devin Singletary – RB 172168984.252.84
Dameon Pierce – RB 141454162.929.72
C.J. Stroud – QB 15391674.311.13
Tank Dell – WR 1111514.64.60
Xavier Hutchinson – WR 165499.83.10
Dare Ogunbowale – RB 128354.42.90
Davis Mills – QB 6294.51.50
Nico Collins – WR 15177.00.50
Robert Woods – WR 14177.00.50
Tim Boyle – QB 3451.31.70
John Metchie III – WR 16144.00.30
Steven Sims – WR 3111.00.30
Case Keenum – QB 2210.50.50
Noah Brown – WR 101-1-1.0-0.10
Player GP Games Played TGTS Targets REC Receptions YDS Receiving Yards CTP% Catch Percentage YDS/R Yards Per Reception YAC/G Yards After Catch Per Game TDS Receiving Touchdowns
Nico Collins – WR 15109801,29773.4%16.236.68
Tank Dell – WR 11754770962.7%15.113.87
Dalton Schultz – TE 15885963567.0%10.817.35
Noah Brown – WR 10553356760.0%17.222.32
Robert Woods – WR 14754042653.3%10.79.01
Brevin Jordan – TE 14201721985.0%12.98.92
Devin Singletary – RB 17383019378.9%6.413.10
John Metchie III – WR 16301615853.3%9.95.30
Dameon Pierce – RB 14171310176.5%7.86.80
Xavier Hutchinson – WR 161989042.1%11.31.30
Teagan Quitoriano – TE 7323366.7%16.52.60
Steven Sims – WR 33325100.0%8.39.00
Dare Ogunbowale – RB 12721828.6%9.00.40
Eric Saubert – TE 103312100.0%4.00.60
Dalton Keene – TE 10000.0%0.00.00
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles
Jonathan Greenard – DE 15001013513516
Will Anderson Jr. – DE 1500007463016
Sheldon Rankins – DT 150011637298
Maliek Collins – DT 1600005411823
Jerry Hughes – DE 170010332239
Derek Barnett – DE 1400003221210
Blake Cashman – LB 14100121045549
Khalil Davis – DT 1500112321616
Christian Harris – LB 16001021006436
Teair Tart – DT 130000124177
Desmond King II – CB 700001462224
Denzel Perryman – LB 1200001784632
Jimmie Ward – S 1010000513318
Jalen Pitre – S 1500110815625
Tavierre Thomas – CB 700200472918
Adrian Amos – S 160000028235
Hassan Ridgeway – DT 300000615
Steven Nelson – CB 1740000634815
Neville Hewitt – LB 1600000101
Kris Boyd – CB 100000000
Brandon Hill – S 200000000
Derek Stingley Jr. – CB 1150000392811
Dylan Horton – DE 10000101275
Jake Hansen – LB 1400000761
Eric Murray – S 6001001165
Myjai Sanders – DE 700000743
McTelvin Agim – DT 100000202
Henry To’oto’o – LB 1500110573225
DeAndre Houston-Carson – S 1320010352510
Ka’dar Hollman – CB 500010624
D’Angelo Ross – CB 100000101
Kareem Jackson – S 1020000523715

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