NFL Net Yards Per Play: Packers, Texans Surge After Underdog Wins

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
NFL yards per play

Two of the teams showing the strongest recent form are two of the teams the market least expected to reach this point. Both the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans, powered by star young QBs, sprung upsets in the wild card playoffs. They posted eye-opening NFL net yards per play stats and have found the type of recent form that intrigues longshot bettors.

While you’re handicapping NFL playoffs odds, you may be searching for a new tool to apply to your step-by-step process. If so, yards per play (YPP) should be near the top of your checklist. NFL net yards per play — the difference between offensive and defensive performance on a per-play basis — gives a solid look at a team’s overall strength.

This report will be updated following each week of action and contains each team’s yards per play results on offense and defense, respectively. The “last three weeks” column captures the teams’ current form. If you see fit, one could be worth investing in for futures. You’ll want to look for undervalued teams whose per-play strength isn’t reflected in their final scores due to luck or other factors.

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NFL NET yards per play Explained

Yards per play — or YPP — is a handy metric for NFL bettors since it eliminates unpredictable variables, including turnovers, botched kicks, and scores via special teams. Ignoring randomness is a critical part of handicapping any sport. Therefore, yards per play on both sides of the ball helps indicate where a team is in the short term. Generally speaking, you will rarely find a below .500 team in the upper echelon of these rankings.

But like EPA, teams may be overvalued in the betting market if their YPP surges positively over a small sample size. You will see that various units — offensively, defensively, or both — benefit from playing weak competition over arbitrary samples. In turn, their output could be mis-contextualized.

Conversely, a team outperforming expectations against a presumably elite opponent is likely a sign of a positive trajectory.

NFL Yards Per Play: Offense, Defense And Net

Here are the current yards per play numbers before NFL divisional action. Conventional wisdom says dividing the net yards per play difference by 0.15 gives an approximate spread between two teams.

Furthermore, keep in mind that the more or fewer plays a team runs/defends, these numbers could wind up skewed in either direction. This table can be sorted by clicking on the headers.

TeamYards Per PlayOpponent YPPNet YPPLast 3 Weeks NYPP
49ers6.651.61
Dolphins6.45.11.3-1.3
Ravens5.94.61.30.4
Chiefs5.54.70.81.4
Bills5.75.10.6-0.1
Cowboys5.65.20.40.1
Lions5.95.60.3-0.3
Vikings5.55.20.30.1
Rams5.75.40.30.3
Texans5.55.20.31.3
Packers5.75.40.32.1
Falcons5.250.20.7
Browns4.84.70.1-0.5
Seahawks5.55.500
Colts5.25.20-0.3
Eagles5.45.5-0.1-1
Patriots4.64.7-0.10.1
Saints5.15.3-0.2-1.4
Jaguars5.25.4-0.20.9
Bears55.3-0.3-0.2
Jets4.34.6-0.30
Buccaneers5.15.4-0.31
Titans4.95.2-0.3-0.4
Raiders4.95.2-0.3-0.2
Steelers55.4-0.4-0.1
Chargers5.15.5-0.4-0.6
Cardinals5.25.7-0.50
Broncos55.8-0.8-0.5
Bengals5.26-0.8-1.2
Panthers4.14.9-0.8-0.5
Commanders55.9-0.9-1.2
Giants4.55.6-1.1-0.1

Packers Crush Cowboys, Try To Continue Cinderella Run

The Packers have caught fire at the right time. Their +2.1 “last three games” advantage in NFL net yards per play leads the NFL by a large margin.

And all three came against something resembling respectable opposition, at least aside from the Vikings offense helmed by Jaren Hall for a half.

A Chicago team that has performed in the league’s top half for multiple months got turned to mincemeat by Jordan Love. The Packers did whatever they wanted on offense in that game (7.2 YPP), but red-zone flubs limited them to 17 points.

No such thing happened against Dallas. The Packers finished drives (4-for-4 red zone) and gained another 7.7 YPP. Limiting an explosive Dallas offense to 5.7 YPP meant they wound up a whopping +2 in a game where they closed touchdown underdogs.

Aaron Jones and the offensive line getting healthy have been key factors. Jones has ripped off four straight games with 100+ yards. He averaged at least 5 YPA in all four. Facing a 49ers team that ranks in the bottom 10 in both EPA/play and Success Rate allowed on the ground, Jones and the Packers must keep that streak if they hope to continue this run.

San Francisco has been something of a playoff dragon for Green Bay recently. They’ve eliminated them four times dating to 2013. However, relatively few Packers remain from the team that lost even just two years ago. The offense has been completely remade.

We’ll see if the new version of the Packers can do what others couldn’t: stop this menacing ground game.

Packers Playoffs Odds

Green Bay Packers Futures & Divisional Playoffs Props

Green Bay Packers Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
Jordan Love – QB 1662.9%3,601225.112.5251491.7
Malik Willis – QB 774.1%55078.613.830132.5
Player GP Games Played ATT Rushing Attempts YDS Rushing Yards YDS/C Yards Per Carry YDS/G Rushing Yards Per Game TDS Rushing Touchdowns
Josh Jacobs – RB 183191,4104.478.316
Emanuel Wilson – RB 181065084.828.24
Chris Brooks – RB 16361835.111.41
Jayden Reed – WR 18201638.29.11
Malik Willis – QB 7201386.919.71
Jordan Love – QB 1627933.45.81
Bo Melton – WR 188546.83.00
Christian Watson – WR 154235.81.50
Tucker Kraft – TE 185163.20.90
MarShawn Lloyd – RB 16152.515.00
Player GP Games Played TGTS Targets REC Receptions YDS Receiving Yards CTP% Catch Percentage YDS/R Yards Per Reception YAC/G Yards After Catch Per Game TDS Receiving Touchdowns
Jayden Reed – WR 18795990374.7%15.322.26
Tucker Kraft – TE 18755573373.3%13.326.57
Christian Watson – WR 15532962054.7%21.49.92
Romeo Doubs – WR 14744861464.9%12.89.84
Dontayvion Wicks – WR 18824145450.0%11.17.85
Josh Jacobs – RB 18463938284.8%9.824.31
Bo Melton – WR 1820910745.0%11.90.40
Malik Heath – WR 1417109758.8%9.71.62
Chris Brooks – RB 1616137881.3%6.07.10
Emanuel Wilson – RB 1817127170.6%5.97.21
Luke Musgrave – TE 81074570.0%6.42.30
Ben Sims – TE 17544280.0%10.50.90
MarShawn Lloyd – RB 1113100.0%3.08.00
John FitzPatrick – TE 10112100.0%2.00.00
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles
Rashan Gary – DE 1800118502822
Kingsley Enagbare – DL 1800205421923
Brenton Cox Jr. – DL 8001041284
Karl Brooks – DL 1800124251510
Edgerrin Cooper – LB 1510114835132
Lukas Van Ness – DL 1800113342113
Keisean Nixon – CB 1810303906228
Quay Walker – LB 14000031107634
Eric Wilson – LB 1810102633231
T.J. Slaton – DL 1800001321715
Xavier McKinney – S 1880011906129
Kenny Clark – DT 1800021422220
Isaiah McDuffie – LB 18001011004555
Colby Wooden – DL 140000122913
Javon Bullard – S 1600010875928
Eric Stokes – CB 1800000412912
Zayne Anderson – S 1610000743
Evan Williams – S 1410100513219
Robert Rochell – CB 100010000
Jaire Alexander – CB 72001016151
Devonte Wyatt – DL 700000211
Nesta Jade Silvera – DT 700000826
Corey Ballentine – CB 900100220
Kitan Oladapo – S 1000000413
Ty’Ron Hopper – LB 1800000211
Carrington Valentine – CB 1420200351916

Stroud, Texans Rout Highly-Rated Browns D

Only two teams (Ravens, Chiefs) allowed fewer than the 5.5 YPA the Browns conceded through the air in 2023.

So, what did CJ Stroud do in his playoff debut? Post a staggering 13 YPA dropping back. Stroud barely missed a perfect passer rating in one of the most emphatic playoff arrivals seen in years.

Keep in mind that a couple of things sully Houston’s numbers. For starters, the season opened with a couple of losses as Stroud got his feet under him. Second, the two-game stretch that Stroud missed in concussion protocol dragged the numbers down some. They still beat Tennessee in one of the games, but 4.8 YPA passing doesn’t do the stats any favors.

Houston is hitting its stride again on offense, but they do now face the aforementioned Ravens. Not only does the team enter well-rested off the bye, but they get more than a week to target what has become a pretty one-dimensional offense. The Texans don’t run the ball well at all, and thanks to injuries to pass catchers Tank Dell and Noah Brown, only a couple of high-value targets remain in Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz.

Can Texans Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik work more magic here? The Ravens have their own young mastermind behind the defense in Mike Macdonald.

On paper, this looks like a very difficult situation for Stroud. He’s going from playing indoors at home to outside in possibly bad NFL weather against a top-rated, rested defense. Bettors would do well to keep expectations in check here even after the tremendous showing. Many past wild card victors have faltered in this spot.

Texans Playoffs Odds

Houston Texans Futures & Divisional Playoff Props

Houston Texans Player Statistics

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
C.J. Stroud – QB 1963.6%4,254223.911.3211388.3
Davis Mills – QB 455.6%21253.010.60074.9
Player GP Games Played ATT Rushing Attempts YDS Rushing Yards YDS/C Yards Per Carry YDS/G Rushing Yards Per Game TDS Rushing Touchdowns
Joe Mixon – RB 162881,2104.275.613
Dameon Pierce – RB 13463186.924.52
C.J. Stroud – QB 19643175.016.70
Dare Ogunbowale – RB 19321263.96.60
J.J. Taylor – RB 510444.48.80
Tank Dell – WR 149434.83.10
Davis Mills – QB 43113.72.80
Stefon Diggs – WR 8382.71.01
British Brooks – RB 5122.00.40
Player GP Games Played TGTS Targets REC Receptions YDS Receiving Yards CTP% Catch Percentage YDS/R Yards Per Reception YAC/G Yards After Catch Per Game TDS Receiving Touchdowns
Nico Collins – WR 14115801,20969.6%15.130.98
Tank Dell – WR 14815166763.0%13.111.73
Dalton Schultz – TE 19935961863.4%10.512.52
Stefon Diggs – WR 8644749673.4%10.623.13
Joe Mixon – RB 16573933468.4%8.624.01
John Metchie III – WR 15473031763.8%10.65.31
Robert Woods – WR 17342222564.7%10.24.40
Xavier Hutchinson – WR 18331720351.5%11.93.40
Dare Ogunbowale – RB 19292019869.0%9.99.21
Cade Stover – TE 16261916173.1%8.57.11
Brevin Jordan – TE 232766.7%3.51.50
Dameon Pierce – RB 1352240.0%1.00.40
Irv Smith – TE 7112100.0%2.00.00
Jared Wayne – WR 42000.0%0.00.00
Teagan Quitoriano – TE 70000.0%0.00.00
J.J. Taylor – RB 532066.7%0.00.20
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles
Will Anderson Jr. – DE 16001115443311
Danielle Hunter – DE 19002012533518
Tim Settle Jr. – DT 190001533258
Derek Barnett – DE 1800225261610
Denico Autry – DE 12000041495
Tommy Togiai – DT 1000003291217
Azeez Al-Shaair – LB 1300202825032
Henry To’oTo’o – LB 17101021165759
Christian Harris – LB 50000121147
Folorunso Fatukasi – DT 130000127189
Jake Hansen – LB 180000118117
Eric Murray – S 1920001855728
Jalen Pitre – S 1210100664422
Derek Stingley Jr. – CB 1970100614417
Myles Bryant – CB 80000015114
Neville Hewitt – LB 1910100522923
Solomon Byrd – DE 100000220
Calen Bullock – S 1950010563719
Russ Yeast – S 400000110
Jimmie Ward – S 1020000483216
Kris Boyd – CB 300110110
Devin White – LB 70000017134
Ka’dar Hollman – CB 3000001091
Dylan Horton – DE 15000001459
D’Angelo Ross – CB 4000001082
Kamari Lassiter – CB 1640000634518
Jeff Okudah – CB 600000770
Jerry Hughes – DE 700000532

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