NFL MVP Odds: Brock Purdy Skyrockets; Joe Burrow Live Longshot?

Written By Derek Wagner on October 11, 2023

After an exciting Week 5, we saw significant changes in NFL MVP odds. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy launched himself into the picture after dotting up the Cowboys’ secondary on Sunday Night Football. Regardless, Patrick Mahomes has taken over as the favorite in NFL MVP betting, the best available price sitting at . Let’s look at current odds and some of the biggest movers at the best sports betting sites.

2023 NFL MVP ODDS

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Tua Tagivailoa and Josh Allen Odds

Pairing these two together, as far as analysis goes, is simple; the quarterback that wins the AFC East is the one that has the best shot to emerge from NFL MVP odds. The quarterback finishing second here is not winning MVP.

Allen already beat Tua once, so he has a head start. However, the trip across the pond forced the Bills to fall behind a game in the standings. The Bills’ defense is also riddled by injuries now. The team lost Matt Milano, Tre White, and DaQuan Jones to season-ending injuries. The defense could cause issues for the Bills, specifically when they play the Dolphins later in the year.

So perhaps this makes Tua the better option out of the AFC East. They are the favorites to win the division after all, with the best available price sitting at .

They’re in lockstep with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions regarding statistical categories. He does have a leg up on Allen in passing yards, though, with 207 more through five weeks.

Best available Tua MVP Odds:
Best available Allen MVP Odds:

Welcome To Brocktober

Purdy () bulldozed into the MVP picture when the 49ers stomped the Cowboys 42-10 Sunday night. He was so spectacular Sunday evening that Chris Collinsworth couldn’t stop gushing over his performance, with deep downfield strikes to Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and a trick play to George Kittle that saw him score one of this three touchdowns.

For reference, he could have been found at +5000 at DraftKings Sportsbook in the summer. Now, the best available price for him to win MVP sits at .

Through four weeks, Purdy ranks first in EPA per play and first in EPA+CPOE composite. The narrative that “Purdy succeeds because of Shanahan’s offense” must stop. Last season, he ranked seventh in terms of EPA. To put more context around that, that ranking had him ahead of quarterbacks such as Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert. Those are QBs that were much higher on the NFL MVP odds board before the season started.

Making him +5000 to win MVP while those quarterbacks were shorter than +2000 all offseason was baking in draft stock far too much.

He can win the award, and he is a great quarterback in this offense.

Joe Burrow MVP Odds

Joe Burrow’s odds for MVP have gone into the tank due to the team’s slow start and his calf injury. However, a scenario exists where his odds work back up the board. The Bengals are spread favorites for this week’s game against Seattle.

If they beat the Seahawks, the Bengals will go into the bye week with a 3-3 record with a chance to give Burrow time to heal even more. In Week 8, they’ll square off against Purdy and the Niners in San Fran. Burrow needs to do more than win games, though.

He needs to catch up in some statistical categories. Heading into Week 6, he’s 569 passing yards behind Tua, the league leader, and six passing touchdowns behind the Tua and Allen.

A unique opportunity exists for Burrow to gain ground on the aforementioned and AFC East quarterbacks this weekend. The Bills are spread favorites against the Giants this weekend, while Miami is spread favorites against the Panthers.

The Dolphins are interesting because we saw what they would do in last week’s blowout. McDaniel throttled down in the fourth quarter and called more run plays than pass plays, limiting Tua’s ability to pad stats. If this happens this weekend, Burrow can begin his climb, especially given that Seattle’s defense ranks in the top 10 in rush EPA and bottom half of the league in dropback EPA.

Below is how the Bengals close out their season, in which they’ll be a favorite in every game if Burrow is healthy, except for the Chiefs game. The two primetime games and possible third in Week 18 are notable since the “injured Burrow leads Bengals to playoffs” narrative will be driven home on nationally televised games.

Week 14 vs. Colts 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 15 vs. Minnesota TBD
Week 16 at Pittsburgh 4:30 p.m. ET
Week 17 at Kansas City 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 18 vs. Cleveland TBD

The way I see it, there are two ways this bet doesn’t age well. The Bengals’ defense causes them to lose games, or Burrow has an injury setback. Cincinnati’s defense ranked eighth in EPA a year ago; through five weeks this season, they rank 18th. They’re also 25th in yards per play, giving up a blistering 5.6 to opponents. If the defense keeps this up, there’s a chance it just keeps costing them games.

Burrow’s calf injury looked better after his 10-yard scamper against the Cardinals. After the game, he said it was the best it’s felt yet. If he can prevent re-injury, his NFL MVP odds are going to shorten if they continue to win. That said, rising to the top of the AFC standings will be challenging.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The top of the AFC is a mess right now with the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Bills all sitting near the top. Instead of going there, I would get in on Burrow and the Bengals turning it around. They admittedly face an uphill battle after starting 0-2 in their division games.

Although the defense was better, and Burrow wasn’t hurt, we saw this scenario play out last year. The Bengals started 2-3 to begin the 2022 campaign and rattled off eight wins to close out the season.

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