Week 16 MVP Odds: What Happens If Lamar Jackson Beats Brock Purdy On Christmas?

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
nfl mvp odds

Week 15 of the season saw the NFL MVP betting market thrown on its head for the second straight go-around. With losses to Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts, as well as the rise of Josh Allen from the dead, the Week 16 odds have upped the stakes on the Ravens at 49ers on Christmas night. To ensure you’re making the most of NFL MVP odds, shop prices at the best sports betting sites. There can be substantial differences in price between sportsbooks on something like NFL MVP odds. Getting the best price can be crucial.

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Week 15 Takeaways

The best place to start the MVP conversation this week is with the players who ejected themselves from contention.

NFC East Has An NFC Least Week

The NFC East thoroughly disgraced themselves this week. Dak Prescott () only managed three points in non-garbage time against the Bills despite being down the entire game.

Jalen Hurts (), on the other hand, can at least partially blame illness for the sin of allowing the NFL’s whitest wannabe rapper, Drew Lock, to be in a spot where he had the ball down only four points with 1:52 left in the game.

Those inclined to wonder if Dak still has a path should disabuse themselves of the notion. With the Eagles still controlling their destiny to the NFC East crown, the Cowboys are ending the year as a four-loss 5-seed, at best. Whatever his statistical case, he can’t beat the winner of the Ravens at 49ers, who would have one less loss and not be playing on Wild Card Weekend.

Others Likely Eliminated

Tyreek Hill’s contrarian candidacy took a hit as Tua and the Dolphins remembered how to score points without him. Patrick Mahomes remembered he’s allowed to win games this week, but at five losses and currently sitting in the 3-seed, he doesn’t have the team success to win.

Brock Purdy came out saying that Christian McCaffrey is the actual MVP of the league after his three-touchdown performance against Arizona. Unfortunately for McCaffrey’s backers, even if Purdy genuinely believes it, everyone thinks this is just faux modesty by Purdy. Also, the last running back to win MVP was in 2012.

Correctly or not, voters view Offensive Player Of The Year as the place to reward non-QBs, a historical precedent that is being ignored by those that bet CMC in NFL MVP odds.

Ravens Upcoming Schedule

Kansas City Chiefs 11 – 6 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 5, 2024
Las Vegas Raiders 8 – 9 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Dallas Cowboys 12 – 5 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Would Lamar Jackson () OverCOme Weaker Stats?

Week 16 sees the battle of the 1-seeds between Baltimore and San Francisco. It’s also become a defacto MVP playoff, with Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson squaring off to end the Christmas Day triple header. Purdy’s the current favorite, and the Niners are favorites in this game that may decide the MVP.

If the Niners win, they just need to beat the Commanders in Week 17 to clinch the NFC 1-seed. Purdy would have head-to-head wins against Lamar, Dak, and Hurts. 

By advanced metrics, he’s essentially wrapped up the league lead in Dropback EPA.

If you want a more Boomer-friendly stat, he’s second in passing yards, above all his competitors except Tua. However, Prudy is less than 200 yards behind Tua on 74 fewer attempts.

NAMECMPATTCMP%YDSAVGYDS/GTDINTRTGRUSH ATTRUSH YDSRUSH TD
Brock Purdy26838469.83,7959.9271.1297119371382
Dak Prescott33348468.83,6397.5259.9287104482122
Josh Allen32549066.33,5417.2252.9261493.28039811
Patrick Mahomes35352467.43,7037.1264.5251393.2613440
Jalen Hurts30346165.73,3357.2238.2191289.913954214
Lamar Jackson26640166.33,1057.7221.817796.51357415

Winning May Not Be Enough For Lamar Jackson

If the Ravens win, Lamar’s case will be less airtight. He sits 13th in Dropback EPA (which does include his running). Lamar has often been good enough to win, but not MVP caliber in a traditional sense. Yes, his weapons are substantially worse than those of Purdy, Prescott, or Hurts, but he also hasn’t been as efficient.

The reason it’s still a potential MVP for him if they win is simple – it’s hard to make a case for anyone else. If they beat the Niners, it’s hard to make a case for Purdy. Even if Dak wins the next two weeks against Miami and Detroit, he’s still likely the five-seed. Hurts and the Eagles are collapsing down the stretch. So even if the Eagles win out (as they should), no voter will reward the QB with an MVP.

If you think Baltimore can beat San Fran, Lamar’s a solid bet. His odds will at least age well to give you options in the final weeks. Don’t expect the Ravens to win though, which is why I’m resigned to thinking it’s Purdy.

49ers Upcoming Schedule

New York Jets 7 – 10 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 9, 2024
Minnesota Vikings 7 – 10 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Los Angeles Rams 10 – 7 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

Is Josh Allen () A True MVP Dark Horse?

Allen’s name has come back down the odds board in recent weeks, with wins over both Kansas City and Dallas augmenting his case. The Bills are now well-placed to make the playoffs and arguably the AFC East. If they do, can Allen win?

It’s unlikely, but the Bills schedule for the last three weeks opens the door. The Chargers and the Patriots should be easy wins before the Dolphins in Week 18. Between how they played in Buffalo earlier this year and Buffalo’s recent form, it’s easy to argue they can sweep that. If Miami loses one more game to Dallas or Baltimore, the Buffalo at Miami game will be for the AFC East title in Week 18. If Buffalo wins, there will be talk of making Josh Allen the MVP.

The problem is, as much as Allen has been instrumental in winning these games, he’s also why they lost against the Patriots, Bengals, and Broncos, which is partially why they needed such a ferocious comeback even to be favored to make the playoffs. A six-loss team that would likely be the 4-seed in the AFC,at best, would be quite the outlier for an MVP.

That’s true, even if watching him speedrun through the Aaron Rodgers “Run The Table” playbook to the playoffs has been quite fun.

Best of luck betting NFL MVP odds this week!

Bills Upcoming Schedule

Arizona Cardinals 4 – 13 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
Miami Dolphins 11 – 6 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 12, 2024
Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – 8 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 23, 2024

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