NFL MVP Odds: QB Josh Allen Rises To Top; Can Darkhorse RB Win?
A new favorite has emerged for NFL MVP following an exciting round of games in Week 4. After walloping Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins on Sunday, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has climbed into the lead. Let’s dive into the current NFL MVP odds and some at the best sporting sites before we head into Week 5.
2023 NFL MVP Odds
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The New Favorite
Josh Allen MVP Odds ()
Tua was the favorite heading into this game against Buffalo, but everyone knew the winner would be the MVP favorite. After launching four touchdowns, sure enough, Allen leapfrogged Tua in the NFL MVP odds. His nine touchdowns are tied with Russell Wilson and Tua for the second most in the league, behind only Kirk Cousins.
I have an issue with Allen: he turns the ball over too much. He’s already thrown four interceptions on the season and is on pace for 17 if he plays every game. His six turnover-worthy plays are tied for the second-highest in the league, only behind Desmond Ridder and Mac Jones.
Allen is undoubtedly a talented quarterback, but his gunslinger mentality may force him into too many turnovers to win the MVP by the season’s end. Remember that the Bills still square off against the Jets one more time, who forced Allen into three interceptions in their Week 1 Monday night showdown. Miami may have star cornerback Jalen Ramsey back for their regular-season finale against Buffalo.
The potential for another high interception season out of Allen is exceptionally high.
Current COntenders in NFL MVP Odds
Lamar Jackson MVP Odds ()
Lamar Jackson‘s Ravens are flying under the radar a bit to start the season. They’re tied with the Bills and Chiefs at 3-1 atop the AFC after demolishing the Browns in Cleveland. Lamar logged two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in the victory.
He won’t be leading the league in passing touchdowns, but his rushing touchdowns give him an upside to put up some statistical numbers worthy of MVP. It’s early, and we have a small sample size, but Lamar is on pace for 17 rushing touchdowns on the year. He’s not likely to reach this number, but if he can get double-digit touchdowns, he’ll garner attention in the MVP market.
From a passing perspective, he’s on pace to throw for 3,300 yards for the first time in his career. His 794 passing yards thus far have him sitting 21st on the leaderboard. He won’t put up the passing stats to win; he needs to put up numbers on the ground.
Christian McCaffrey ()
The last time we saw a running back win this award was 2012, when Adrian Peterson did so, but McCaffrey is making his case. The Niners running back logged four touchdowns on Sunday and had 177 scrimmage yards. His incredible start has him on pace for 1,900 rushing yards, 26 rushing touchdowns, and four receiving touchdowns.
For reference, when Peterson won in 2012, he notched 2,097 rushing yards, 12 rushing scores, and a single receiving touchdown. It’s unlikely McCaffrey will eclipse 2,000 rushing yards, but if he does, he will win an award. Voters might also credit him if he eclipses 2,000 scrimmage yards, not just rushing yards.
Seven of the eight running backs have won an award when they ran for 2,000 yards. The only one who didn’t was Eric Dickerson in 1984 when Dan Marino won MVP and OPOY.
There’s longshot potential here if he keeps putting up these numbers, but durability is a significant concern with McCaffrey. The seventh-year Stanford product played in 17 games a year ago, but before that, he had not played an entire season since 2019. He’s had nagging injuries that have sidelined him his entire career, including multiple hamstring injuries. Another issue facing McCaffrey is the blowout potential the 49ers have. If they start demolishing opponents early in games, Shanahan may take his foot off the pedal and sideline McCaffrey.
That said, there’s a chance these odds shorten further, however, with an opportunity to showcase his elusiveness on SNF against the Cowboys. If you believe he’ll stay healthy, perhaps you get in on McCaffrey now before Sunday night.
Allen is the rightful favorite after toppling Tua, but his turnover tendencies lead me to believe he’s vulnerable. Mahomes is another obvious candidate in the AFC, but Lamar and McCaffrey are putting up statistics that make their names worth mentioning. Best of luck betting on NFL MVP odds!
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