NFL MVP Odds: Will Hurts, Tua, Burrow, Or Jackson Dethrone Patrick Mahomes?

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on November 7, 2023

Week 9 of the NFL season was remarkably important for NFL MVP futures and the candidacies of several quarterbacks. Four contenders for the award faced off against each other. With the Bengals and Chiefs getting big wins and the Bills and Dolphins losing, Sunday’s winners and losers extended to the odds board. Patrick Mahomes has moved Tagovailoa down, while Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have entered prime contender status. Is the MVP race wide open, or is it just going to be Mahomes again?

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2023 NFL MVP ODDS

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Joe Burrow ()

Burrow isn’t at the top of the odds board yet, but he is the biggest mover after Sunday. In beating the Bills, Burrow essentially halved his odds. Now fifth on most odds boards, Burrow’s case relies on voters giving his first few weeks a pass. If Burrow leads the Bengals to 11 or 12 wins and an AFC North title, then it’s very possible. The problem is there’s a tough road ahead for Cincinnati.

This week against the Texans should be a fine, and should provide Burrow opportunities to pad the statbook. That said, they then play Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville three weeks straight. They also have another Steelers game, a road trip to the Chiefs on New Year’s Eve, and end the season against the ferocious Browns defense.

Burrow was a great bet before the Bills game, but it’s harder to make the case at the current price. That schedule is brutal, and there’s no guarantee, even if they do win 11 games, that he’d win the AFC North – a prerequisite for the award, in all likelihood.

Bengals QB Passing Stats

PASSING

Player	GP Games Played	CMP% Completion Percentage	YDS Passing Yards	YDS/G Yards Per Game	YDS/C Yards Per Completion	TDS Passing Touchdowns	INT Interceptions thrown	RTG Passer Rating
Joe Burrow – QB	10	66.8%	2,309	230.9	9.5	15	6	91.7
Jake Browning – QB	4	75.6%	649	162.3	11.0	3	1	94.2

Bengals Upcoming Schedule

Indianapolis Colts 7 – 5 – 0 Week 14: Dec. 10, 2023

Minnesota Vikings 6 – 6 – 0 Week 15: Dec. 16, 2023

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – 6 – 0 Week 16: Dec. 23, 2023

Lamar Jackson ()

For a similar reason, fading Lamar Jackson makes a lot of sense. He’s risen as high as the co-favorite at DraftKings this week.

The Ravens have seemed to find something on offense. In the last three weeks, Baltimore has been top of the league in EPA and fifth in Success Rate. They’re humming along, having embarrassed both the Lions and Seahawks. But they still have a deadly schedule coming up. Browns, Bengals, and Chargers are their next three matchups, all of whom could be playoff teams, before ending their season against the Rams, Jags, 49ers, Dolphins, and Steelers. This schedule is deadly, with only one game where the Ravens project to be sizable favorites (the Rams).

Lamar’s season has been remarkable, and if he’s able to get the Ravens home in 6-2, the award’s probably his. But that’s a remarkably difficult schedule to only get two losses from. Which is why if you’re going to the top of the board for a bet, I’d say it should be elsewhere in the AFC.

Ravens QB Passing Stats

PASSING

Player	GP Games Played	CMP% Completion Percentage	YDS Passing Yards	YDS/G Yards Per Game	YDS/C Yards Per Completion	TDS Passing Touchdowns	INT Interceptions thrown	RTG Passer Rating
Lamar Jackson – QB	12	68.3%	2,618	218.2	11.5	13	5	96.8
Tyler Huntley – QB	3	62.5%	38	12.7	7.6	1	0	61.5

Ravens Upcoming Schedule

Los Angeles Rams 6 – 6 – 0 Week 14: Dec. 10, 2023

Jacksonville Jaguars 8 – 4 – 0 Week 15: Dec. 17, 2023

San Francisco 49ers 9 – 3 – 0 Week 16: Dec. 25, 2023

Do NFL MVP Odds Circle Back To Patrick Mahomes?

The Eagles are cruising to a one seed in the NFC, but their record is primarily built on beating mediocre teams. With the next five games being Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, Dallas, and Seattle, they’ll be happy to win three games with their 22nd EPA defense. If they can get through that stretch with more than that, then Hurts will win the award. However, that stretch is a gauntlet.

The Dolphins have shown they can’t show their best against good teams, losing to Buffalo, Philly, and now Kansas City. Plus, Miami failed to reach 21 points in any of them. That should be enough to push Tua out of real contention.

And Christian McCaffrey’s not going to win on a Niners team that’s already added three losses on the resume, nor is Josh Allen going to when the Bills already have four losses. The Bills QB is also piling up turnovers.

So, it seems to come back to Mahomes, once again.

The Chiefs only have four games against playoff or playoff-possible teams left. Their three toughest matchups left are all at home against Philly, Buffalo, and Cincy, and they’re favorites for the one seed in the AFC. If the Chiefs are the one seed, and Mahomes has wins over most of the other contenders, it’s his.

Waiting a week to bet this, as the Chiefs are on bye, makes sense. If Lamar looks incredible again against the Browns, then Mahomes’ price might just drift a tad. But Mahomes is the process of elimination choice, as he’s the only one without an insanely difficult schedule or too many losses already on the books.

Best of luck betting NFL MVP odds!

Chiefs QB Passing Stats

PASSING

Player	GP Games Played	CMP% Completion Percentage	YDS Passing Yards	YDS/G Yards Per Game	YDS/C Yards Per Completion	TDS Passing Touchdowns	INT Interceptions thrown	RTG Passer Rating
Patrick Mahomes – QB	12	67.8%	3,128	260.7	10.4	22	10	99.5
Blaine Gabbert – QB	1	60.0%	31	31.0	10.3	0	2	-5.4

Chiefs Upcoming Schedule

Buffalo Bills 6 – 6 – 0 Week 14: Dec. 10, 2023

New England Patriots 3 – 10 – 0 Week 15: Dec. 17, 2023

Las Vegas Raiders 5 – 7 – 0 Week 16: Dec. 25, 2023

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