NFL MVP Odds: Has A New Candidate Emerged in Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff?

Written By Zach Tilley on October 18, 2023

Week 6 in the NFL saw the two remaining undefeated teams go down. The San Francisco 49ers lost in Cleveland, and Brock Purdy dropped the first regular season game in his career as a starter. The Philadelphia Eagles, who have looked a tad uncomfortable this season, finally suffered their first loss in New York against Zach Wilson and the Jets. So, what does this mean for NFL MVP odds?

The season is far from over, but after the Dolphins put on another show in Miami, this award is seemingly Tua Tagovailoa’s to lose. Can anyone chase him down besides the usual suspects, like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen?

Enter Jared Goff. That’s right. The quarterback, once left for dead, has made a significant move up the MVP odds board over the past couple of weeks. The Detroit Lions are receiving much-deserved praise from the national media, and if they keep winning, could Goff win MVP?

2023 NFL MVP odds

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The Favorites

Tua Tagovailoa remains the favorite to win NFL MVP after the Dolphins took care of business at home against the Panthers. They did spot Carolina a 14-0 first-quarter lead, but if anything, that forced Mike McDaniel to open up his playbook and allow this offense to dominate like it has all season.

Tagovailoa finished with three more touchdown passes and no interceptions, including a spectacular connection to Tyreek Hill for a long touchdown, which has almost become a weekly routine for this duo. Hill may have a longshot MVP case to make in his own right but would probably require a Tua injury to win.

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen both “struggled” by their standards during national TV games in Week 6.

The Chiefs toyed with the uninspiring Broncos on Thursday Night and came away with a 19-8 win at Arrowhead. Meanwhile, the Bills escaped an upset bid from the Giants on Sunday Night Football, 14-9. They were north of two touchdown favorites in that one. To survive and advance in this league isn’t a bad thing.

Season Stats:

Tua Tagovailoa: 140/197 (71.1%), 1,876 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT
Patrick Mahomes: 153/224 (68.3%), 1,593 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT
Josh Allen: 147/205 (71.7%), 1,576 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT

Jared Goff Moving Up The Board

After their most recent victory at Tampa Bay on Sunday, the 5-1 Lions now have an unquestioned leader on the field.

Jared Goff had to put the Lions offense on his back against the Bucs after RB David Montgomery left the game in the second quarter with a rib injury. He finished with an efficient 353 yards through the air and two touchdowns, including a 45-yard strike to WR Jameson Williams.

Goff has been coined a “game manager” for the majority of his NFL career, but he is doing so in an expert fashion. The Lions converted 9-of-16 third downs against the Bucs, who possess a usually stout Todd Bowles defense. Goff is often converting those crucial third-down plays, week in and week out, finding his favorite gritty weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

For those who don’t buy the Jared Goff MVP odds movement, consider his numbers during the Lions last 17 games:

4,473 passing yards
29 TD
4 INT
13-4 record

One might argue, how can he keep this up? The Lions have a favorable schedule and only have TWO remaining outdoor games to be played. If they end up as a top-two seed in the NFC, with 14 or 15 wins to bolster, why not Goff?

Season Stats (with NFL ranks):

69.5% completion percentage (6th)
1,618 yards (5th)
11 TD (5th)
3 INT
105.1 passer rating (3rd)

Who Could Be Next Up The Board?

Depending on the severity of Christian McCaffrey’s injury, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tyreek Hill move into the top spot for non-quarterbacks in the coming weeks.

Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow continue to battle for the AFC North. A winning streak from one or the other could keep their respective names in the hat.

Don’t look now, but Rams QB Matthew Stafford is third in the league in passing yards. With Cooper Kupp back in the mix, Stafford might be a current longshot to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks.

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