NFL MVP Odds: Dak Prescott Rising, But Can He Catch Jalen Hurts?

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
Thursday Night Football odds

Week 12 in the NFL saw the Most Valuable Player odds shift again. Jalen Hurts cemented his advantage in a big win against Buffalo, while Dak Prescott balled out on Thanksgiving. The Chiefs, Dolphins, and Ravens all won, though in varying performances for their QBs. Coming into December, the NFL MVP odds market is in flux again, with key matchups across the slate.

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2023 NFL MVP ODDS

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Week 11 NFL MVP Takeaways

Jalen Hurts Cements Status As Favorite

In winning another close game this week, Jalen Hurts () looked better than he did against the Chiefs. Still only throwing for 200 yards, Hurts found the end zone three times as a passer and twice as a rusher en route to an OT win. His yardage stats aren’t great for the second straight week, but the offense put up 37. Hurt also is now second among QBs in total touchdowns with 29, behind only Josh Allen’s 33 but four ahead of Dak Prescott’s 25.

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating

Eagles Upcoming Schedule

Green Bay Packers 9 – 8 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 6, 2024
Atlanta Falcons 7 – 10 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 16, 2024
New Orleans Saints 9 – 8 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

The Other QBs

Tua only threw for 243 and a TD with two INTs on Black Friday against the Jets and only managed to be 17th in Dropback EPA. Lamar Jackson was an equally putrid 20th in EPA in beating the Chargers, with neither team inspiring much confidence that victories will sustain against teams that don’t suffer from the issue of being terrible.

Mahomes looked more like himself against the Raiders, ranking sixth in EPA for the week and putting 297 yards and two TDs in a 31-point performance.

Can Dak Prescott () Win NFL MVP?

In all likelihood, this award is Jalen Hurts’ or Patrick Mahomes’ to lose. The Chiefs benefitted from Joe Burrow’s injury, and a game against the Bills at Arrowhead is the only time they’ll be less than sizably favored all season. If Philly finally stumbles these next three weeks, Hurts’ odds could fall enough that Mahomes still wins despite the head-to-head loss.

That all said, there’s one longshot that actually has a path. Dak Prescott has a demanding schedule down the stretch – playing the Eagles, Lions, Bills, and Dolphins – but they are likely favored in all four games. With the Dallas defense still strong –  third in the league in EPA – the Cowboys could run the table. And if they do, it at least leaves the door cracked to be the 1-seed in the NFC.

If Hurts doesn’t win the NFC East and get the 1-seed, he probably won’t win. The Chiefs have already lost three games, the same as Dallas, and their play in recent weeks suggests that they can be upset on any given Sunday.

Dallas could still win the NFC East. If that happens, with the way the NFL’s media hype cycle loves talking up Cowboys, Dak could win.

It takes winning games they should win, but Dak is still a live longshot on the NFL MVP odds board.

Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating

Cowboys Upcoming Schedule

Cleveland Browns 11 – 6 – 0 Week 1: Sep. 8, 2024
New Orleans Saints 9 – 8 – 0 Week 2: Sep. 15, 2024
Baltimore Ravens 13 – 4 – 0 Week 3: Sep. 22, 2024

If Not An NFC East QB?

Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson () still has to play on the road against the Jaguars and Niners, and host Miami, which could knock them down significantly in the race for the AFC’s 1-seed. Closing the season against the Steelers isn’t a gimme either, despite the fact they should win that one.

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa () still has no great wins and have to play Dallas, Baltimore, and Buffalo in three straight weeks to close the season. Short of them sweeping those three games, Tua won’t win MVP. Given they could go 3-0 and Philly could still have a better record and a head-to-head win, it’d be a better bet to just bet them moneyline in all three than to bet Tua’s MVP if you’re a Dolphins believer.

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes () needs to run the table, which is relatively easy given their only remotely hard game left is home to the Bills, and hope that Philly falls to at least three losses. The head-to-head might be overcome if Mahomes has better counting stats, and both are 1-seeds, but even then, Hurts beat him.

NFL MVP ODDS CONCLUSIONS

Jalen Hurts will have to lose it at this point, and even a loss this week and next doesn’t necessarily change that, if the touchdowns keep coming and the division championship follows.

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