NFL MVP Odds: Dak Prescott Enters Week 15 New Favorite, But Schedule Gets Tougher
Week 14 of the season saw the NFL MVP betting market thrown on its head, with Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and Lamar Jackson putting up stellar weeks. With losses elsewhere on the board, the race is wide open, and the Week 15 odds are as crazy as ever. To ensure you’re making the most of this ever-changing market, check out the best sports betting sites. There can be substantial differences in price between sportsbooks on something like NFL MVP odds. Getting the best price can be crucial.
2023 NFL MVP ODDS
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Dak Prescott ()
I’m really sorry to those with big Dak tickets, but a QB on a team with the Defensive Player of the Year favorite as a 5-seed would break from historical MVP precedent. This rise up the odds board may have an expiration date.
Dallas faces the Bills, Dolphins, Lions the next three weeks. They’re underdogs this week, and yet everyone is saying it will be Dak. In my mind, there is a better chance of Shohei Ohtani being a Blue Jay on Opening Day than that happening.
Now, Peter King did write that he could see Prescott garnering votes even if he’s the 5-seed. That said, he didn’t say that he would vote for Dak in those scenarios, just that he could see Dak getting votes. As TheLines‘ Managing Editor Stephen Andress said …
If you’re looking to bet Dak at this point, just parlay the Cowboys moneylines for the next three weeks. It’ll pay more money, and if they actually win all three games, it’s a guaranteed payout. Even if Dak and Dallas win the next three weeks, there’s no guarantee it’s him.
Cowboys Upcoming Schedule
Lamar Jackson ()
Lamar was incredible in Week 14, leading all QBs in EPA and putting up 316 yards through the air and 71 on the ground. Kansas City, Miami, and Jacksonville all lost, which puts the Ravens at a considerable advantage in the race for the 1-seed.
With so much of the energy on the NFC QBs and the AFC 1-seed so wide open for weeks, Lamar’s been forgotten. But with the rest of the AFC collapsing around him, he’s now plausibly got the same case as Brock Purdy. Except, of course, he’s not viewed as a system QB.
The problem for Jackson is that they have to play the 49ers in San Francisco on Christmas night, and the 49ers are likely to be decent favorites. The Ravens did need OT to beat the Rams this week, and while it’s not Lamar’s fault that the Baltimore defense is injured, it hurts his case. If they beat the Niners and they are the 1-seed, he’s MVP. But if they lose, it’s unlikely a four-loss quarterback can beat Prescott and Purdy for the award.
But there still is someone who can.
Ravens Upcoming Schedule
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Jalen Hurts ()
Everyone needs to stop acting like Hurts is out of this race.
Philadelphia plays Seattle, Arizona, and the Giants twice in the next four weeks. They are likely to go 4-0, and end the season 14-3. And at that point, Hurts is a better MVP candidate than Dak. Whether or not 14 wins and a 2-seed in the NFC is worth more or less than 13 wins and the 1-seed in the AFC – Jackson’s likeliest outcome – is a debate. But what’s not is that this is the NFL, where what have you done for me lately is how the odds work. And Hurts hasn’t done much. Good.
I’ve bet Hurts because this number won’t exist in a week. I have been a staunch Eagles skeptic this entire season, but they have four bad teams to end the season. Hurts will look like Hurts again. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are literal underdogs this week. If Hurts plays great and Buffalo wins, then Hurts will be somewhere between half this price or maybe even one-third of it in seven days.
The Rest Of The CANDIDATES In NFL MVP ODDS
My vote, if I had it (and I was to ignore his past domestic abuse), might be for Tyreek Hill after how badly the Dolphins offense sputtered without him on Monday night. The Dolphins’ loss to the Titans means we can toss Tua from the race. Hill’s also out, even though he wasn’t really in it. His only chance was to beat the season-long receiving record, and not being able to put up numbers all night significantly dampers that process.
Purdy was great for San Francisco and was even responsible for much of his passing yards this week. He remains a Kyle Shanahan QB, and there is a legitimate reason to believe that he won’t get the respect that his stats indicate because Shanahan, and not Purdy’s actual abilities, will be what gets the credit. The fact that the Raiders scored ZERO points in Week 14 and still refused to play Jimmy Garopolo only serves as a reminder that the media credit the system and not the QB.
Patrick Mahomes not only doesn’t deserve the MVP for losing to Green Bay and then Buffalo in back-to-back weeks but his childish whining to Josh Allen and the media (about an offensive offsides call the officials got right) has guaranteed his candidacy is over.
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