NFL MVP Odds: BetMGM Reveals Most-Bet Players Before Week 1
The 2023 NFL season has finally arrived, with Week 1 odds available ahead of Thursday Night Kickoff on Sept. 7. The start of the season also signifies one last chance for bettors to examine the futures markets before significant movement occurs, including Most Valuable Player odds. With this in mind, let’s break down who is being bet the most at BetMGM in NFL MVP odds and decide if anyone is worth a wager.
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NFL MVP ODDS: BETTING INSIGHTS FROM BETMGM
| Player | Opening Odds | Current Odds | Ticket% | Handle% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 650 | 650 | 8.7% | 16.9% |
| Jalen Hurts | 1000 | 1100 | 14.0% | 12.8% |
| Joe Burrow | 650 | 600 | 9.8% | 12.5% |
| Lamar Jackson | 1600 | 1400 | 8.5% | 8.4% |
| Justin Fields | 3000 | 2000 | 9.6% | 8.3% |
| Justin Herbert | 900 | 1100 | 3.4% | 6.9% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2500 | 1600 | 5.2% | 5.4% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1400 | 1600 | 6.8% | 5.3% |
| Josh Allen | 650 | 750 | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| Jared Goff | 4000 | 2500 | 4.7% | 3.1% |
| Trey Lance | 5000 | 10000 | 1.2% | 1.9% |
| Russell Wilson | 5000 | 4000 | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1000 | 1600 | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Deshaun Watson | 3000 | 3000 | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Derrick Henry | 12500 | 15000 | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Justin Jefferson | 10000 | 10000 | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Daniel Jones | 5000 | 8000 | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| Kenny Pickett | 4000 | 5000 | 1.2% | 1.0% |
Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts Most Popular MVP Bets
BetMGM released insights into this market in August, and the results are unsurprising. The table above shows every player with at least 1% of the handle. Jalen Hurts has the highest ticket percentage (total overall bets) at 14.6%. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes has the highest handle percentage (total dollars bet) at 16.9%.
Mahomes was among the favorites to win the award last year at +800, but can he repeat? Bettors certainly think so, but we’ve only seen two players win MVP back-to-back since 2000. Peyton Manning won in 2008 and 2009, and Aaron Rodgers accomplished the feat in 2020 and 2021.
From a historical standpoint, it is unlikely that we will see back-to-back MVP winners, but this is Mahomes we are talking about. He’s more than capable of replicating his league-leading 5,200 passing yards and 41 touchdowns from a season ago.
On the other hand, Hurts provides plenty of intrigue due to his dual-threat ability in the Eagles‘ offense. However, Philadelphia lost both coordinators this offseason as OC Shane Steichen took the head coach position for the Colts, and DC Jonathan Gannon is now the head coach for the Cardinals. Hurts may put up the statistics worthy of MVP consideration, specifically in the rushing department.
Hurts logged an eye-popping 13 rushing touchdowns a season ago, the most since Cam Newton‘s 14 in 2011. That said, the Eagles could face regression as a team after losing significant parts of the coaching staff. Couple that with losses on the defensive side of the football, and their floor could be lower this season.
CAN JAGUARS QB TREVOR LAWRENCE WIN MVP?
With the help of the Titans‘ seven-game losing streak to end last season, the Jaguars were able to steal the AFC South crown last season. Lawrence became more comfortable in the new offense and Jacksonville rattled off five straight wins to finish the season, including two against Tennessee. With an entire season under his belt and a competent coach guiding him, the sky is the limit for the young QB entering his third year.
In Lawrence’s first season under Doug Pederson, he notched a top-10 EPA per play and completion percentage over expected (CPOE). In fact, Lawrence logged the fourth-best dropback EPA during the team’s 7-2 run to finish the season. He managed to lower his turnovers from 17 the prior season to a mere 12 spot last year.
The coaching upgrade from Urban Meyer to Pederson was instrumental in his leap, but can he make another leap this year? The addition of Calvin Ridley has Jaguars fans and bettors optimistic. Jacksonville sent draft capital last November to Atlanta in exchange for the suspended star receiver. In Ridley’s last full season in the league, he amassed 90 receptions, 1,300 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. Reverting back to that form could be challenging given his two-year hiatus, but the offense is still oozing with potential with Ridley added to the mix, even if his full potential isn’t reached.
Jaguars Schedule
Additionally, the Jags schedule remains relatively easy, showcasing the seventh easiest schedule by opponent win totals. They find themselves in one of the easier divisions in the AFC where two teams- the Texans and the Colts, are starting rookie quarterbacks out of the gate. In the first four weeks, barring injuries or changes to the starter, the Jaguars will face Anthony Richardson, Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, and Desmond Ridder. An upset victory of Mahomes in Week 2 would certainly aid Lawrence’s candidacy for NFL MVP.
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FINAL THOUGHTS ON NFL MVP ODDS
While the favorites are likely to notch statistical numbers to win the award, there are candidates down the odds board capable of competing. If he can stay healthy, perhaps Lawrence can contend with Mahomes and other NFL MVP favorites this season.
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