NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Heavily Favored Over Lamar Jackson Despite Sitting Week 18
Heading into Week 18, Josh Allen held a decent-sized lead over Lamar Jackson in odds to win NFL MVP. Still, Jackson had a clear opportunity to close the gap. The Ravens needed to win to secure the AFC North, while the Bills planned to rest starters since they were locked into the No. 2 seed.
Jackson delivered another solid performance with a pair of scores. The Ravens moved to 12-5 and won the division. So, did he do enough to overtake his fellow superstar?
Let’s dive into why the market says no, where the closing odds landed, and what each player’s case looks like.
NFL MVP Odds After Regular Season
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Allen A Big Favorite To Take Home First MVP
Jackson wound up putting up a 16-for-32 performance for 217 yards and 2 TD-0 INT. While that’s fine, the Ravens needed a late surge (mostly from Derrick Henry) to put away the Browns despite closing as the biggest favorites of the entire season.
The market was understandably unmoved. Allen, who entered the week around -300, is now closer to a consensus of -500 (83% implied probability).
Here’s a look at the two players’ respective statistical cases. League ranks are in parentheses.
| Stat | Lamar Jackson | Josh Allen |
|---|---|---|
| Total EPA | 173.4 (2nd) | 174.2 (1st) |
| EPA+CPOE Composite | 0.184 (2nd) | 0.171 (3rd) |
| Total TDs | 45 (2nd) | 41 (4th) |
| Total Yards | 4,807 | 4,262 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 6 |
| Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt | 9.38 (1st) | 7.96 (3rd) |
Jackson appears to have the better statistical profile. He produced more yardage and touchdowns and did so more efficiently. Some of the advanced metrics, like total EPA, do favor Allen. However, most of the stats point toward the Ravens’ two-way threat collecting his third MVP.
So, why does the market favor Allen so strongly?
He has a couple of things going in his favor.
Narrative, Team Success Powering Allen
The first and probably most important is the narrative battle. Remember, betting on MVP isn’t a bet on who should win, it’s a bet on who the voters will pick.
Despite being among the most productive QBs in recent years, Allen has yet to take home the trophy. He has three top-five finishes but hasn’t been named the MVP. Some voters may feel he finally deserves a lifetime achievement nod.
By contrast, Jackson may suffer from some voter fatigue. He has won two MVPs, including last year’s.
Voters may feel reluctant to hand him a third until he improves his playoff performance.
Allen also had to do more with less this year. The Bills dealt away his top target, perennial All-Pro candidate Stefon Diggs. Allen was left to make it work with a more budget-friendly playmaking group, none of whom figures to sniff any postseason recognition.
Jackson, meanwhile, welcomed elite RB Henry to the team.
And while MVP is ostensibly an individual award, we see team success powering winners repeatedly. Jackson was a beneficiary just last year, collecting MVP despite a weaker statistical season as the Ravens turned in a dominant campaign.
The Bills may not have earned the No. 1 seed, but they finished a game ahead of the Ravens and earned a higher seed despite punting in Week 18.
Thus, Allen closes as a firm favorite in NFL MVP odds. It would be a big surprise if we heard Jackson’s name called on Feb. 6.
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