2021 NFL MVP bets are coming in strong as the preseason continues. Let’s dive into the market at BetMGM and see where bettors are putting their money down.
2021 NFL MVP Market Report
Below are the NFL MVP market at BetMGM, sorted by ticket percentage. Odds, ticket percentages and handle percentages as of August 20, 2021.
Ticket percentage refers to what percentage of the total number of placed bets went to a specific player. Handle percentage refers to the percentage of the total cash bet on a specific player.
You can compare odds across sportsbooks in your state at our NFL MVP futures page.
|Player||Odds (as of Aug. 20)||Ticket%||Handle%|
Bills QB Josh Allen ()
Off the back of one of the most drastic improvements in play in recent NFL memory, Josh Allen commands 10.4% of the tickets for NFL MVP at BetMGM. Allen improved his completion percentage by nearly 11 points and increased his touchdowns from 20 to 37 in 2020. The Bills are among the favorites to win Super Bowl LVI. The past four MVP winners each led their team to 13 or more wins in the regular season and three of them reached their conference championship game.
Allen and the Bills are slated for 11 wins this coming season, fourth-most in the NFL. Their odds to win the AFC are .
Chargers QB Justin Herbert ()
The Chargers QB broke several rookie passing records in 15 games in 2020. Herbert threw for the seventh-most yards per game (270.6) in the NFL but failed to pull the Chargers to .500. Since 2000, only Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson won the league MVP award in their second season. While Herbert holds the rookie passing touchdown record, Mahomes tossed 50 touchdowns in his first season as a starter and Jackson broke the quarterback rushing record.
Los Angeles is a favorite among the media to take a major step forward in 2021. Its 9.5 wins (DraftKings Sportsbook) is a projected 2.5-game improvement over a season ago. While Herbert is a hot pick this offseason, the Chargers are only to make the playoffs– a near requirement for past NFL MVPs.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford ()
For years, many said that Matthew Stafford had been buried by the Detroit Lions organization. His resume certainly points toward untapped potential. In nine full seasons as a starter, Stafford has thrown for 4,000 yards in all but one of them, including 5,000 yards in 2011. However, in that time, he had just three winning records and one playoff appearance.
Conversely, the Rams have averaged 10.75 wins per season under Sean McVay and made the playoffs in three out of four years. Tack on an injury to projected breakout running back Cam Akers and an elite duo of receivers in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, and it’s easy to see where all these bets are coming from. Stafford is third in ticket percent (8.7%) but leads the handle share (10.7%).
Other notable NFL MVP bets
The MVP Award has been a quarterback-heavy award of late, with Adrian Peterson (2012) being the lone non-QB to win it since 2010. Non-QBs receiving bets this year include reigning Offensive Player of the Year Derrick Henry () and Panthers‘ star Christian McCaffrey (). Neither player commands more than 2% of the ticket share or 1.2% of the handle. Henry leads CMC in both.
Tom Brady () has a disproportionate handle-to-ticket share ratio, pulling in the second-most handle at 9.4% but only a 4.6% ticket share.
Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers () isn’t garnering much money at just 0.2% handle share on 0.8% of the tickets.
Baker Mayfield () is the outlier in terms of odds. He holds the longest odds of anyone in the top 10 by +1000 but sits fourth in ticket share and fifth in handle.
Biggest odds moves among NFL MVP bets
49ers rookie QB Trey Lance moved the most so far this offseason in MVP odds. Lance holds the highest share and ticket percentage for Offensive Rookie of the Year at BetMGM and jumped from +30000 to +12500 longshot odds for MVP. He holds 2.1% of the ticket share (14th) and 1.9% of the handle (12th). His preseason performance has likely provided the major boost in odds.
Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald also moved up boards at BetMGM this offseason, from +20000 to . Donald has won the DPOY award three times in the last four years and is being heralded as one of the greatest defensive forces ever. However, the last defensive player to win MVP was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. The only other defensive player to win MVP is Alan Page in 1971. The MVP award was established in 1957). 0.8% of NFL MVP bettors think Donald will blaze a trail, but cautiously; Donald has 0.5% of the handle. One bettor at BetMGM placed $500 on Donald to win MVP at +20000. That ticket would pay out $100,000.
Baker Mayfield has seen a +500 shortening of his odds, likely in response to the amount of tickets coming in on him. Mayfield opened at +4000 at BetMGM. His best available price across legal sportsbooks is now . Despite having a strong cast around him, bettors think Mayfield could still emerge for the Browns to make an MVP run.
Like the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, Lance is the biggest liability when it comes to NFL MVP bets. Should he become the only rookie other than Jim Brown to win MVP (1957), BetMGM would be forking over a serious amount of money. For example, a $10 bet on Lance (+12500) would win $1,250.
Mayfield also presents a top-three liability among 2021 NFL MVP bets, according to BetMGM, if he wins the award. As mentioned, his odds are +1000 longer than anyone else in the top 10 in NFL MVP odds. Lots of bettors are seeing opportunity in Mayfield this offseason and where bettors see opportunity, that creates liability for sportsbooks. Bets coming in on Mayfield are significant in dollar amount too– he commands 7.6% of tickets, but 8.6% of the handle, meaning some larger bet amounts are coming in on him.
Justin Herbert is the third-biggest liability, according to BetMGM. While his odds aren’t the longest on the board, a successful bet on him would reap a serious reward. At +2200, a successful $10 bet would earn $220 in winnings.9% of all NFL MVP bettors see this as a worthwhile risk, making Herbert a liability at BetMGM.
TheLines Podcast: NFL Awards
On Episode 177 of TheLines Podcast presented by BetMGM, Stephen Andress and Matt Brown went in-depth on both NFL Rookie of the Year Bets and 2021 NFL MVP bets. They noted six Offensive Rookie of the Year winners since 2010 were quarterbacks. Among the five other winners in that span, four were running backs and one was a wide receiver (Odell Beckham).