What A Sportsbook NFL Mock Draft Would Look Like Based On The Odds

Posted By Brett Gibbons on April 27, 2021

Each draft season, thousands of mock drafts hit the internet with a nearly infinite number of outcomes. Analysts try to combine tape with fit, paired with team rumors and scouting reports to craft the most accurate mock. Annually, the top analysts in the world shoot 50% and no better.

Also each draft season, sportsbooks release hundreds of NFL Draft props– one of the world’s fastest-growing betting markets. With them comes player draft position over/unders, odds for specific teams to pick specific players, and odds one player will go before another.

So that begs the question: What happens if we combine Draft props with mock drafts?

Note: Before we get started, the process needs some clarifying. All odds are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are reflective as recently as April 26, 2021 at 5:00 PM EST. Most of these picks reference several odds that narrow down the most-implied candidate. Fit was ignored and these picks aren’t meant to be predictive, though oddsmakers take hundreds of factors into account. Last, there are no trades that will take place.

Alright, now let’s take a look at how this mock draft shapes out:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

Lawrence has been the guy from Day 1 and the Jaguars have made it known this is who they’re taking. His exact prop in DK is -10000 to be picked first overall. Easy start.

Props used: First overall pick

2. New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

Another lock. The Jets haven’t been very secretive about who they want here at two and this is another exact prop for Wilson going No. 2 to the Jets at -5000.

Props used: Second overall pick

3. San Francisco 49ers: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

From here, things get muddy. There’s plenty of rumors and smoke surrounding what the 49ers will do at this pick and the odds table leader has changed seemingly day-to-day. Jones, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance have all been the odds-on favorite since San Francisco landed the pick from the Dolphins.

The latest report to come out was that Lance and Jones were the 49ers’ final guys and that Kyle Shanahan likes Mac Jones. He’s the current odds-on favorite.

Props used: Third overall pick

4. Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

Oddsmakers believe Kyle Pitts will be a top-5 pick, as demonstrated by the -200 odds. He’s also the favorite to be the first non-quarterback drafted (-150) and the Falcons are favored to select a tight end with their first pick (-150). The tea leaves read Pitts goes here, and that takes into consideration that the Falcons are a popular trade-back candidate amongst NFL reporters.

Further, the odds for exact outcome at the third, fourth, and fifth picks place Pitts at four in three of the top four props.

Props used: Top-5 pick, First Non QB selected, Atlanta Falcons exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Exact outcome

5. Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

Chase is the player remaining with the highest odds to be selected in the top 5 (-167). The Bengals are favored to pick a receiver first (-150) and franchise quarterback Joe Burrow has been lobbying for Cincinnati to pick his former teammate.

Against the wishes of many fans who watched Burrow go down with a serious knee injury last year, it appears the Bengals are more likely to grab Burrow another weapon. Chase is tied for second in odds to be the first non-quarterback taken in the draft (+225). Lastly, the odds for exact outcome at the third, fourth, and fifth picks slot Chase at five in three of the top four most likely outcomes.

Props used: Top-5 pick, Cincinnati Bengals exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, First Non QB selected, Exact outcome

Complete WR betting odds breakdown

6. Miami Dolphins: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

This is where we had to start reading between the lines. The Dolphins are listed as most likely to use their first pick on a wide receiver (-200), with an offensive lineman falling third in line (+500). However, with Chase and Pitts off the board, we’re looking at odds to be a top-5 pick. Aside from quarterbacks, Sewell is the remaining player with the highest odds to be selected in the top 5 (+110).

His over/under for draft selection is 5.5 (Over -190), placing him nicely here at 6 with Miami.

Props used: Over/under draft position, First Non QB selected, Top-5 pick

7. Detroit Lions: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

Again, many mock drafts see the Lions moving back from seven and a quarterback-needy team slotting here to pick QB4. However, in our mock draft everyone stays put and the Lions are taking the player with the highest remaining odds to be a top-10 pick: Jaylen Waddle. The Lions are most likely to select a receiver with their first pick (+100) and Ja’Marr Chase is off the board. Fairly straightforward.

Props used: Top-10 pick, Detroit Lions exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, First WR drafted

8. Carolina Panthers: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

After trading for Sam Darnold, the once-quarterback hungry Panthers are looking to patch holes elsewhere. The Panthers are favored to select an offensive lineman with their first pick and Rashawn Slater has the highest remaining odds among non-quarterbacks to be picked inside the top 10 (-150).

Props used: Carolina Panthers exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Top-10 pick

Complete OL betting breakdown

9. Denver Broncos: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Trey Lance is a tricky player to place, as he’s favored to be a top-5 pick (-167) and the second-most likely player to be drafted third by the 49ers (+225); he’s also a likely target of a team trading up. However, without trades here, Lance falls to ninth. The Broncos are listed as the second-most likely team to draft Lance (+300), behind San Francisco (+200). Since the 49ers already picked, Lance goes to Denver.

Props used: Team to draft Trey Lance

10. Dallas Cowboys: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

Patrick Surtain II is more likely to be picked inside the top 10 than Rashawn Slater and Jaylen Waddle– two players that have gone before him. He’s such a lock to be selected at 10 that his over/under draft position is 10.5 (Under, -159) and Dallas is most likely to select a corner with their first pick (-250). There’s not many more assumed picks than this one.

Props used: Top-10 pick, Dallas Cowboys exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Over/under draft position

11. New York Giants: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Dave Gettleman is rarely secretive about who he’s ready to draft each year; the past two drafts saw Gettleman praise Andrew Thomas (fourth overall pick in 2020 to the Giants) and Daniel Jones (sixth overall pick in 2019), both of which were seen as “surprises.” This year, DeVonta Smith has been the player praised most by Gettleman during the draft process.

Smith is by far the favorite for the Giants to pick, being one of just a small handful of players with this exact prop. The Heisman Trophy winner’s slide ends here.

Props used: Player to be selected with the Giants’ first draft pick

12. Philadelphia Eagles: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

The Eagles agreed to trade back from the sixth draft spot because they were confident enough that one of the three top receivers would fall to them amid the scramble for the top four quarterbacks. Predictively, they might be right. For this mock draft, things didn’t fall their way.

Instead, they grab Jaycee Horn, the player tied for first among the first player the Eagles will pick (+300). The other two– DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle– are gone, leaving Horn as the most likely option.

Props used: Player to be selected with the Eagles’ first draft pick

13. Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

This is the first pick of the draft in which the player going falls more than a pick ahead of their projected draft position (15.5). The Chargers are overwhelmingly favored to select an offensive lineman with their first pick (-182) to help franchise quarterback Justin Herbert out. Darrisaw has the highest odds among remaining offensive lineman to be a top-10 pick and, though he falls outside the top 10, he slots into a happy medium between there and his over/under total.

Props used: Los Angeles Chargers exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Top-10 pick

14. Minnesota Vikings: Kwity Paye, DL, Michigan

Paye is pretty uniform in his odds we could have used in this spot. The Vikings are second-most likely to draft a defensive lineman with their first pick (+175), Paye is the second-most likely defensive lineman to be picked first (+125), and he’s listed at +125 to be a top-10 pick. The other options– Alijah Vera Tucker (Vikings favored to go offensive lineman first at +120) and Jaelen Phillips (favorite to be first defensive lineman picked)– are both less likely to be a top-10 pick than Paye and have higher over/under draft positions.

Props used: Minnesota Vikings exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Top-10 pick, First DL drafted, Over/under draft position

Complete DL betting breakdown

15. New England Patriots: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

We know– the Patriots likely won’t be able to sit at No. 15 and have Justin Fields fall right into their laps. However, oddsmakers say this is the most likely landing spot for Fields (+300). New England is one of the most likely teams to trade up should Fields slip past No. 3.

Where Justin Fields falls in this draft is so unknown that he currently doesn’t have an over/under draft position attached to him. He could be taken as early as No. 2 and (according to some) as low as No. 24.

Props used: Team to draft Justin Fields

16. Arizona Cardinals: Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

The Cardinals are a tough team to slate and it’s clear oddsmakers are having the same troubles. They’re listed as most likely to draft a cornerback (+150), but the remaining ones (Caleb Farley, Greg Newsome II) have much, much lower over/under draft totals. They’re second-most likely to pull the trigger on a receiver (+300), but the top three options are gone and the remainders have much, much lower over/under draft totals.

Finally, we arrived at linebacker, which was just +500 to be their first pick. Potentially some value to be had here? Micah Parsons is favored to be a top-10 pick, but his slide potential is very much there. The farther he falls past 10, the less likely the outcome.

Props used: Top-10 pick, Arizona Cardinals exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, First LB drafted, Over/under draft position

17. Las Vegas Raiders: Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC

The Raiders– usually a defensive-focused team in the first round– are favored to go offensive line here (+180). Alijah Vera-Tucker’s over/under draft position is 15.5 and he’s the player with the second-highest remaining odds to be a top-10 pick (+400). With Christian Darrisaw already picked, Vera-Tucker goes here.

Props used: Las Vegas Raiders exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Over/under draft position, Top-10 pick

18. Miami Dolphins: Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami

Another perfect fit: Jaelen Phillips has an over/under draft position of 18.5. Curiously, he also has very favorable odds of being selected in the top 10 (+175) and being the first defensive lineman off the board (+100). Oddsmakers are telling us that, if DeVonta Smith is gone, don’t be surprised to see the Giants take Phillips at 11.

Luckily for the Dolphins, the Giants didn’t take Phillips there and he lands with Miami. Even better for Phillips, he doesn’t have to move.

Props used: Top-10 pick, First DL drafted, Over/under draft position

19. Washington Football Team: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

While Washington is favored to go offensive line first (+140), no player’s over/under draft position quite fit the bill here (disclaimer, we cheated a bit here and looked ahead to see where/if JOK’s slide would end). They’re second-most likely to pick a linebacker, which is where we went with the 19th overall pick. JOK has a comfy 19.5 over/under draft position, meaning he falls nicely right here.

Props used: Washington Football Team exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Over/under draft position

Complete LB betting breakdown

20. Chicago Bears: Teven Jenkins, OT, Oklahoma State

The Bears, despite being aggressively quarterback-needy, are most likely to go offensive line with this pick (+180). Teven Jenkins’ over/under draft position was the nearest to this spot (24.5) and deviated less than if he went one pick earlier. The last prop we used was odds to be a top-32 pick, which Jenkins sat top of (-560). It might be cheating to have slotted him here before 19, but it’s the right fit per betting information.

Props used: Chicago Bears exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Over/under draft position, Top-32 pick

21. Indianapolis Colts: Sam Cosmi, OT, Texas

It was tough to slate Cosmi since DraftKings doesn’t currently provide an over/under draft position for him. He does, however, hold the highest odds among the remaining offensive linemen (-125) and the Colts are heavily favored to go offensive lineman with their first pick (-110).

Props used: Top-32 pick, Indianapolis Colts exact playing position of team’s first drafted player

22. Tennessee Titans: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

While Farley’s fall would be an absolute steal for a late-first round team like Tennessee, it’s what oddsmakers are pointing toward. His over/under draft position sits at 21.5, slotting him perfectly at 22 (-130). Tennessee is most likely to pick a cornerback with their first pick (+120) and Farley’s favored to go before Northwestern corner Greg Newsome II head-to-head (-150).

Props used: Tennessee Titans exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Over/under draft position, Player to be drafted first

Complete CB betting breakdown

23. New York Jets: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern

After selecting Zach Wilson with the second overall pick, the Jets are favored to go cornerback here at No. 23 (+220). Greg Newsome II was projected to go after Caleb Farley (+120), over/under 24.5 (1.5 picks early, -112), and is the player with the highest remaining odds to be a top-32 pick (-560). The stars align for yet another pick.

Props used: Over/under draft position, Top-32 pick, New York Jets exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Player to be drafted first

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

The Steelers are heavily favored to select a running back with their first pick (-125) and Najee Harris (-167) is projected to be the first running back off the board. With an over/under draft position of 25.5, this is the ideal landing spot for him. He’s also heavily favored to be a top-32 pick (-305).

Props used: Pittsburgh Steelers exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, First RB drafted, Over/under draft position, Top-32 pick

Complete RB betting breakdown

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

After selecting Trevor Lawrence first overall, the Jaguars are most likely to use their second pick on a safety (+300). Moehrig’s over/under draft position is 26.5 (-112) and he is the heavy favorite to be the first safety taken (-400). Combine that with his heavy odds to be a top-32 pick (-400), and Moehrig seems to be the likeliest pick here.

Props used: Jacksonville Jaguars exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Over/under draft position, First S drafted, Top-32 pick.

26. Cleveland Browns: Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia

The Browns are just as likely to go defensive line (+250) as they are linebacker (+250). With Zaven Collins (25.5), Jamin Davis (26.5), and Azeez Ojulari (25.5) all having similar over/under draft positions, how did we decide on Ojulari? He has better odds of being top 32 (-500) and top 10 (+1400) than either of the linebackers. However, these numbers should tell you that any of the three aforementioned players could be the logical pick here.

Props used: Cleveland Browns exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Over/under draft position, Top-32 pick

27. Baltimore Ravens: Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

It’s the last of the string of players that were first slotted based on their over/under draft positions. Bateman is quickly becoming the favorite pick here among most drafts as numerous reports are linking “one of the Ravens’ first round picks” to a receiver. To avoid letting receiver-hungry teams like New Orleans and Green Bay snatch up Bateman, the Ravens pull the trigger at 27.

His over/under draft position (27.5) matches, the Ravens are most likely to draft a receiver here (+200), and he’s more likely to be drafted first than Florida receiver Kadarius Toney (-150).

Props used: Over/under draft position, Baltimore Ravens exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, First player drafted

28. New Orleans Saints: Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama

This might be the most jarring of all the first round picks as dictated by oddsmakers; however, the odds point to this pick being the most likely scenario. Barmore has surprisingly high odds to be a top-32 pick (-305) and, of the remaining teams in the first round aside from the Bucs, the Saints are the most likely to draft a defensive lineman (+300).

Rumors are floating around that Barmore won’t even last this long and DraftKings doesn’t have an over/under draft position prop on him. While predictively, Barmore goes earlier than this, the Saints are the most likely to stop the slide.

Props used: New Orleans Saints exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Top-32 pick

29. Green Bay Packers: Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss

Outside knowledge of the NFL will tell you the Packers are extremely unlikely to go receiver in the first round and that other, more scheme-fitting players could fall here if they did go WR (Terrace Marshall Jr., Kadarius Toney). However, the number that really drives Elijah Moore to be the pick at No. 29 is his likelihood of being a top-32 pick: a surprising -305.

Oddsmakers lean receiver for the Packers’ first pick (+200) and Moore has the highest chance of going this high of the remaining receivers.

Props used: Green Bay Packers exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Top-32 pick

30. Buffalo Bills: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

A lot of factors point to this pick, the first being that the Bills are favored to go running back ahead of all other positions (+200). Etienne was given a 31.5 over/under draft position prop and no other teams this round are as likely to draft a back than Buffalo. He’s a close second to be the first running back drafted (+150), and he’s the most-likely running back remaining to be a top-32 pick (-110).

Props used: Top-32 pick, Buffalo Bills exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Over/under draft position, First RB drafted

31. Baltimore Ravens: Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

While beginning the research on this pick, Zaven Collins and Jamin Davis were the two obvious candidates. The Ravens are second-most likely to select a linebacker with their first pick (+350), behind receiver, which was addressed with No. 27. Collins and Davis are both equally likely to be a top-32 pick (-250).

What broke the tie was Zaven Collins’ over/under draft position (25.5), which edged out Davis by one pick (26.5).

Props used: Baltimore Ravens exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Top-32 pick, Over/under draft position

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami

The second of the Miami edge rushers also stays in-state with Rousseau being favored to land with the Buccaneers. We arrived at this conclusion based on the Buccaneers’ likelihood of selecting a defensive lineman first (+200) and Rousseau’s odds to be a top-32 pick (-305).

Props used: Tampa Bay Buccaneers exact playing position of team’s first drafted player, Top-32 pick

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