2024 NFL Sportsbook Mock Draft: 32 First-Round Picks Based On The Odds

An NFL mock draft by the odds is an exercise I’ve done for the past four years running. Usually, I can piece together a good-looking Round 1 mock draft by the NFL Draft odds from sportsbooks. Some of the betting steam has proven rooted in reliable information, but oftentimes it is not (see: Will Levis). It’s a challenging but fun puzzle to piece together.

For the first time, I implemented a trade – it’s a prop you can bet (set at O/U 6.5 first-round trades), but can’t be discerned via the odds – sending a team back up into Round 1 to take a fifth quarterback. Since mock draft odds rapidly change, I’m time-stamping this one. These odds are reflective as of Monday, April 22, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Alright, let’s dig into the 2024 NFL mock draft by the odds. I pulled odds from multiple books, but chiefly DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mock Draft Methodology

I try my best not to make picks at my own discretion. This exercise is to make picks solely on the odds, and I did that, but sometimes I have to pull outside players to fulfill prop requirements. This year, I included Darius Robinson (EDGE, Missouri), Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama), and Olu Fashanu (OT, Penn State) as probable Day 1 picks.

For the first time in this exercise, I executed one single trade to fulfill a QB requirement. I didn’t take into consideration fit with certain teams (i.e. scheme fits, does that team already have someone at that position, etc.); it only takes what the numbers in front of me are saying. The bottom line is that this is a fun exercise, and it didn’t turn out to be predictive.

Here’s how it turned out.

2024 NFL Mock Draft By The Odds

1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB, USC

We don’t need much explanation here. Williams is nearly a foregone conclusion to be the first pick off the board – so much so that the No. 1 overall pick market isn’t offered in my state of Ohio. Other states line him over -5000 to be the 1.01.

Prop used: No. 1 overall pick (-8000)

2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Leading up to this week, North Carolina QB Drake Maye saw some serious steam at No. 2. However, Daniels saw plenty of pushback and is the odds-on favorite to go here. Perhaps not a foregone conclusion, most steam days ahead of the NFL Draft are artificial. Coach Bill Belichick revealed on a podcast ahead of the draft that “real” information doesn’t get leaked until about 12 hours ahead of the first pick. So, we’re sticking to our guns with the Heisman Trophy winner coming off the board second.

Props used: No. 2 overall pick (-155), Washington to draft Daniels (-150)

3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Another pretty straightforward pick as Maye is the odds-on favorite to go No. 3 and is -2000 to be a top-five selection. Further assurance, Maye is also the favorite to be the third QB off the board, ahead of Daniels. However, with multiple QBs still on the board and a coveted superstar looking to be drafted has me thinking another way. So, while the sportsbook odds say Maye is the pick, I’m placing a longshot bet on someone else to go here.

A team would have to get in front of the Cardinals to grab a potentially generational receiver here:

Props used: No. 3 overall pick (-145), Maye third QB drafted (-145)

4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Of course, barring a jump to No. 3 (or a reported trade-back), Harrison Jr. is ripe for the taking at No. 4. The Cardinals are in desperate need of receiving help following the departures of DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown in the past couple seasons. MHJ is a fairly heavy odds-on favorite to go here (-225 at the time of writing), although the looming possibility of a trade-up for a quarterback remains a possibility.

Props used: No. 4 overall pick (-225), Harrison Jr. first WR drafted (-700)

5. Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The No. 5 pick prop is a bit muddy, as it’s essentially a toss-up between Nabers, Harrison Jr., and J.J. McCarthy. Of the remaining two players, McCarthy has the shorter odds to be a top-five selection, but the Chargers are more likely to go WR (+160) than QB (+5000). For this spot to be McCarthy, the Chargers would have to trade back, which I only saved for one very specific case that we’ll get to later.

Props used: No. 5 overall pick (+230), Nabers top-five pick (+150), Chargers pick WR first (+160)

6. New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Nabers is the clubhouse leader to go sixth overall, but he’s now off the board. The next-most likely player is Odunze (+250), also the favorite to be the third WR off the board (-350). New York is strongly favored to go receiver first (-225), so Odunze is the pick here, albeit a touch higher than consensus. How likely is a run of three QBs followed by a run of three WRs? Probably not very, but here we are.

Props used: No. 6 overall pick (+250), Giants pick WR first (-225), Odunze third WR picked (-350)

7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Alt is the odds-on favorite to come off the board seventh to Tennessee. The Titans are heavily favored to pick an offensive lineman first. Why complicate things?

Props used: No. 7 overall pick (-165), Titans pick OL first (-350)

8. Atlanta Falcons: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

This one’s interesting. According to DraftKings Sportsbook on Monday, Latu is actually the favorite to land here. However, other props conflict, namely Latu’s over/under draft position (17.5), the first defensive player off the board (Dallas Turner -125), and Byron Murphy vs. Latu head-to-head (Murphy -130). Yet, Latu is lined as the favorite specifically here. Could this be a sign that Atlanta specifically loves the UCLA pass rusher? Let’s run with it.

Certainly this won’t have any impact on future placements.

Props used: No. 8 overall pick (+185)

9. Chicago Bears: Byron Murphy, DL, Texas

Odunze is the favorite to come off the board ninth, but he’s already gone in our mock. The second-most likely player comes down to Jared Verse and Byron Murphy. Last week, the pick here would have been Verse, but the odds moved pretty significantly over the weekend. Murphy now has the lower draft position prop (14.5, shaded under) and the shorter odds to be the first defensive player taken. After passing on Jalen Carter last year, the Bears secured a force inside.

Props used: No. 9 overall pick (+600), Murphy first defensive player (+400)

10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Although the Jets are slightly favored to go offensive line here, they’re the only team inside the top 10 picks even remotely likely to go TE first. They’re the favorite to pick Bowers (+150), and unless they trade back, this is the fitting landing spot for the phenom TE.

Props used: No. 10 overall pick (+150), Jets to pick Brock Bowers (+150), Jets pick TE first (+140)

11. Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Unfortunately, we no longer have the crutch of exact pick number props beyond 10th overall. But that means we can start to get creative with the props available! The Vikings are favored to take McCarthy – a number with a likely trade-up built in. McCarthy’s draft position further hints at that, with him favored to go inside the top five picks (-175). But just following the road map of picks 1-10, McCarthy goes over his position prop and lands in Minnesota here at No. 11.

Props used: Vikings to pick McCarthy (+115)

12. Denver Broncos: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

With McCarthy off the board and the odds suggesting it be too early for Michael Penix or Bo Nix, the Broncos look for defensive line help. Turner is more likely than not the first defensive player off the board (outlined a few picks ago), but that Latu quirk sends him down the board to Denver. Turner’s draft position prop also moved in response, now reflecting that he may fall outside the top 10 picks. As we said earlier, there are certainly no ramifications for No. 8.

Props used: Broncos pick DL first (+200), Turner Over 9.5 draft position (-135)

13. Las Vegas Raiders: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

The odds suggest Las Vegas goes offensive line here, but I believe many of these markets are inflated in accordance with the over/under total offensive linemen drafted (Over 9.5 -200). Just browsing all 32 team-position markets, we’d fly well over 9.5 offensive linemen picked Day 1 just blindly going that route. After all, we have other positional quotas to meet. Our first corner comes off the board here.

I came to the conclusion of Mitchell independently from consensus draft rankings – after all, this is a mock by the odds. Mitchell’s over/under draft position sits at 13.5, ahead of Alabama’s Terrion Arnold (15.5). The Toledo Rocket is the first defensive back off the board.

Props used: Raiders pick DB first (+200), Mitchell O/U 13.5 draft position, O/U 4.5 CBs in Round 1

14. New Orleans Saints: J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama

The Saints have among the heaviest odds to pick an offensive lineman with their first selection of the draft (-300). J.C. Latham has the lowest remaining draft position prop, and with 14.5 shaded under, this is the ideal fit for the Alabama product.

Props used: Saints pick OL first (-300), Latham Under 14.5 (-160)

15. Indianapolis Colts: Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon State

For the first time in this mock, I won’t be using Indianapolis’ first position market. They’re favored to go cornerback, receiver, tight end, and defensive line ahead of the offensive line. However, Fuaga’s prop is expiring soon (Under 13.5 -180) and he’s favored over Latham to be the third offensive lineman off the board. It’s not a perfect selection, but it helps piece the puzzle together.

If you’re looking for my real thoughts on who Indy might go here, I like the fit with Jer’Zahn Newton (a player who, spoiler, doesn’t fall in this mock draft!). Newton thrived at Illinois as a true hand-in-the-dirt defensive end in a three-man front. The Colts are the first team in true need of defensive line help with a three-man front. From a scheme standpoint, Newton is a slam dunk here, if not a touch early compared to consensus.

Props used: Fuaga Under 13.5 draft position (-130)

16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

Offensive line is the odds-on favorite position to be picked first by Seattle at No. 16. Fautanu’s over/under draft position prop is set at 15.5, nice and tidy.

Props used: Seahawks picks OL first (-165), Fautanu O/U 15.5 draft position

17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Another simple one: the Jags are favored to go cornerback first, and Arnold’s draft prop is set at 15.5, shaded over.

Props used: Jaguars pick CB first (-165), Arnold Over 15.5 draft position (-130)

18. Cincinnati Bengals: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

OK – so rules are occasionally meant to be broken. If I didn’t use any discretion, Olu Fashanu would go undrafted in Round 1, an incredibly unlikely outcome. Dane Brugler ranks Fashanu as the ninth-best prospect in the entire draft. The Penn State product is a consensus first-round selection. The odds pretty heavily suggest the Bengals go offensive line in the first round, so Fashanu is the pick here.

Props used: Bengals pick OL first (-200)

19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, EDGE, Rams

The odds are pretty split on whether the Rams go offensive or defensive line in Round 1. I went against the slight favorite (OL) to help fill a quota of six defensive linemen taken in Round 1. Verse’s odds are on the move in response to the Latu steam from Pick 8 and his over/under draft position now sits at Over 15.5 (-185).

Props used: Rams pick DL first (+150), Verse Over 15.5 draft position (-185)

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Graham Barton, OL, Duke

Nobody in the first round is more likely to go offensive line, per the odds. Beyond just the sportsbook, Pittsburgh has been looking to find a replacement for Maurkice Pouncey since his 2021 retirement. Barton has a draft position prop lined at Under 21.5 (-150), so this is a fit both within and beyond the odds.

Props used: Steelers pick OL first (-375), Barton Under 21.5 draft position (-150)

21. Miami Dolphins: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Another straightforward selection: the Dolphins are favored to go offensive line first and Mims’ draft position is lined at 22.5.

Props used: Dolphins pick OL first (-125), Mims O/U 22.5 draft position

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

Not overwhelming, but the Eagles are favored to go cornerback in the first round. Iowa star Cooper DeJean fits nicely here, as his over/under draft position prop is set at 22.5, and he’s the favorite to be the third corner off the board – all ideal to fit here at No. 22.

Props used: Eagles pick CB first (+120), DeJean O/U 22.5 draft position, DeJean third CB picked (+140)

23. Houston Texans (via Browns): Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri

Another slight bending of the rules here: I inserted Robinson into the pool of draftable players despite not finding markets for him in Ohio. Robinson accepted an invite to the Draft green room – a sign his agency is confident in him being a Day 1 pick. (Truthfully, this is why I picked Robinson over Newton.) The Texans are a toss-up whether they go offensive or defensive line first, both lined at +200, but to fill the defensive line and defensive players quota, I chose defense here.

Props used: Texans pick DL first (+200), O/U 6.5 defensive linemen Round 1, Over 10.5 defensive players Round 1 (-175)

24. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

There are not many straightforward picks left, but this is one of them. The Cowboys are heavily favored to go offensive line first (-175), and Guyton’s over/under draft position prop is set at Under 28.5 (-220). So, he’s the pick here.

Props used: Cowboys pick OL first (-175), Guyton Under 28.5 draft position (-220)

25. Green Bay Packers: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

Although Green Bay is favored to go offensive line first, this is another quota pick. The odds suggest 11 defensive players and four cornerbacks will go in Round 1. McKinstry has the lowest draft position prop remaining, so he lands here.

A peek behind the curtain: this was actually the final pick I made for the first round, coming back to the Packers at 25. McKinstry was the final piece to this puzzle and fits pretty nicely here.

Props used: Packers pick CB first (+180), McKinstry O/U 28.5 draft position, Over 10.5 defensive players Round 1 (-175)

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

The Bucs are slightly favored to go defensive line over offensive line with their Round 1 selection. Robinson’s draft position prop is also a convenient 26.5, shaded to the under.

Props used: Buccaneers pick DL first (+185), Robinson Under 26.5 draft position (-200), Under 6.5 DL taken Round 1 (-320)

27. Arizona Cardinals (via Texans): Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Arizona lacks a market for the first position drafted, so we’re flying a bit blind with this pick. Sportsbooks line Wiggins’ draft position at Over 26.5 (-140), which is right around here. In conventional mock drafts, the Cardinals are frequently tabbed with leaning cornerback, sometimes with their first pick (in trade backs). This selection makes sense both within the parameters of sportsbook odds and real NFL mock drafts.

Props used: Wiggins Over 26.5 draft position (-140), Under 4.5 cornerbacks drafted in Round 1 (-400), Over 10.5 defensive players Round 1 (-175)

28. Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas, WR, LSU

The Bills are strongly favored to draft a wide receiver in Round 1 following the departure of Stefon Diggs. LSU’s Brian Thomas fell quite a bit past his draft position prop (19.5), but the meat of Round 1 was jampacked with offensive line-needy teams. With just four receivers off the board, and odds lining the position over/under at 6.5, it makes sense for Thomas to come off the board here – better late than never.

Props used: Bills pick WR first (-275), Thomas Over 19.5 draft position (-145)

29. **TRADE** Denver Broncos (from Lions): Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

Here it is! The first trade in four years that I’ve done a mock draft by sportsbook odds. Michael Penix is favored to be selected in Round 1 (draft position: Under 32.5 -230), but no team at the end of Round 1 is in need of a QB. So the only feasible way Penix goes in the first round is by a trade back into the round. The Broncos are actually favored to pick a quarterback first, although that didn’t pan out earlier in this mock.

So, here it is. Detroit – a team with few needs and favored to pick a corner (a position we’ve already hit our quota for) – trades out to a team favored to pick a QB.

Props used: Penix Under 32.5 draft position (-230), Broncos pick QB first (+160)

30. Baltimore Ravens: Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon

The Ravens are pretty heavily favored to select an offensive lineman first in this draft and Powers-Johnson is favored to go in Round 1. His prop is slightly above other offensive linemen like Jordan Morgan. It’s a smooth fit here.

Props used: Ravens pick OL first (-200), Powers-Johnson Under 31.5 draft position (-190)

31. San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona

Like the Ravens, the 49ers are also favored to bolster the offensive line on Day 1. John Morgan is the final offensive lineman with a draft position favored to be in the first round, and his selection satisfies the offensive lineman prop set at Over 9.5 (-200).

Props used: 49ers pick OL first (-125), Over 9.5 offensive linemen in Round 1 (-200), Morgan Under 32.5 draft position (-145)

32. Kansas City Chiefs: AD Mitchell, WR, Texas

With all other positional quotas fulfilled, we just need one more offensive player in the first round. The Chiefs are favored to pick a receiver at No. 32 (-130), and A.D. Mitchell has the lowest draft position prop and is favored in a head-to-head prop with former teammate Xavier Worthy. Mitchell also brings the total number of receivers in Round 1 to six, fitting nicely in the position prop set at Under 6.5 (-240).

Props used: Chiefs pick WR first (-130), Mitchell Over 27.5 draft position (-165), Under 20.5 offensive players Round 1 (-155), Under 6.5 WRs Round 1 (-240), Mitchell (-190) head-to-head vs. Xavier Worthy

How well does the Sportsbook NFL Mock Draft do?

And there you have it – the 2024 NFL mock draft according to sportsbook odds! In the first three years, our sportsbook NFL mock draft scored an average of 33.3 points based on The Huddle Report’s industry-respected grading system:

• 1 point for each correct first-round player
• 1 point for each player-to-team match
• 2 points if you get both right

In 2021, this mock draft scored 35 points, good enough for 112th among graded mock drafts. The following year, it scored 34, which fell down to 201st. Last year, it scored just 31 in a year filled with late draft steam and misdirection (just shy of Albert Breer for a three-year high 93rd). While matching players to teams hasn’t been this draft’s strong suit, it does well predicting first-round players. Last year, sportsbooks hit 26/32 first-round selections and 27.5 the two years prior, on average.

How will the mock draft do this year? We’ll find out Thursday night.