Best Bengals at Jaguars MNF Prop Bets & SGP Promos: Will Trevor Lawrence Stay Hot?
Monday Night Football odds for Week 13 feature what was a much more exciting matchup when it was scheduled. With Joe Burrow out, the Cincinnati Bengals are underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite that, there’s plenty of value in MNF player props and potential same game parlay legs.
Below, I’ll explain who I’m targeting in those MNF player props and share available SGP odds boosts. Use our free Prop Finder Tool on TheLines.com to shop player prop prices from the best betting sites. Click on the sportsbook odds below to bet now.
MnF Player Props: Bengals at Jaguars
Bengals K Evan McPherson Over () FGs
We are, in every way, finding ways to fade Jake Browning. He was 19th by EPA and 21st by Success Rate, both of which suggest that the Bengals won’t be immobile offensively, but neither suggests Browning will be good. And that’s where McPherson comes in.
Field goal bets are a good way of betting on bad offenses, and as currently constituted, the Bengals are a lousy offense. McPherson’s big leg and benign Monday night weather make him an even better candidate for this than the average team. The Jaguars’ 11th-ranked EPA Defense will make it hard for them to score Touchdowns, meaning McPherson will be crucial to scoring.
Jake Browning Over ( Interceptions
Jake Browning has always made questionable decisions with the ball. 34 INTs in 53 college starts and an interception last week make Browning a sizable risk to throw another one.
Throw in the fact that the Jags are sizable favorites, and you have a recipe for an even worse Browning game than last week. Against the Steelers’ anemic offense, Cincinnati led for most of the game. Against the Jags, that’s not likely. If they get down early, Browning will have to increase the average depth of his throws and throw riskier passes. Chances are at least one will be to a Jaguar.
Trevor Lawrence Anytime Touchdown
Lawrence has always been hit or miss with his rushing ability, even going back to his time at Clemson. That said, he’s been leaning on it more in recent weeks. He got in via a one-yard rush against the Texans last week after a five-carry, 17-yard outing got him 2 TDs against the Titans.
The Jaguars should score plenty in this game – the Bengals are 26th in the NFL by Defensive EPA this season. They’re also prone to QB runs, with Josh Allen and CJ Stroud both finding the end zone. Even Brock Purdy – nobody’s idea of a running quarterback and a decent proxy for Lawrence – carried six times for 57 yards against the Bengals.
Lawrence isn’t always a runner, but when he runs, it’s at key moments. And in this case, it likely means into the end zone.
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Potential MNF Same Game Parlay LEGS
The entire thesis of this bet is that Jake Browning is not very good. Given that, the Jaguars should be able to roll in this game. Without Burrow, the Bengals were ineffectual against the Steelers last week. The Jaguars’ defense isn’t quite as good as the Steelers’, but they’re still 11th by EPA.
The Jaguars offense hasn’t been very efficient so far this year, ranking 19th by EPA and 14th by Success Rate. That said, the Bengals are probably the bottom 10 offense they were last week. The Jaguars are miles better than the Bengals on both sides of the ball. And that’s enough.
Best of luck betting MNF player props!
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