NFL Monday Night Football Player Props, SGP Promos: Packers At Raiders
The NFL’s Week 5 is capped off with the Green Bay Packers heading to Las Vegas to play the Raiders. The best available spread on Green Bay is across Monday Night Football odds, with Las Vegas on the moneyline to win the game when looking at the best sports betting sites. The Over/Under is . Let’s look at some MNF player props for this one.
MNF Player Props: Packers at Raiders
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Packers at Raiders Same Game Parlay Strategy
The key to long-term profitability in SGPs and prop betting is correlation. Unlike traditional parlay bets, which can be risky because of the number of things that have to go right, correlated parlays are safer. Getting the broad story of a game correct makes it easier to hit a parlay, as you’re not cheering for disparate and potentially even contradictory things to happen.
In this case, the coinflip nature of this spread makes it harder to know where to start, but there’s one place to go. Green Bay’s offense is the only unit in this game above league average at 12th by EPA, and the Raiders’ defense is 30th by EPA. Given this pairing of strength and weakness, Green Bay scoring the ball efficiently and getting out to a lead seems likely.
And that’s where any SGP should start.
Packers Raiders SGP Props
Packers Moneyline ()
Green Bay has the best unit on the field, and that’s good enough to sway me on this one. There’s little that’s been inspiring about the Raiders in recent weeks. Bottom 10 in EPA on both sides of the ball and coached by Josh McDaniels is a sour recipe for success.
Green Bay on the other hand has been weaker on defense than they were in Week 1, but little suggests the Raiders will be able to take advantage of it. They’ve yet to score 20 points this season, and Josh Jacobs is averaging 2.4 yards/carry so far this season. A one-dimensional offense can work, but the Packers are 12th in defensive EPA against the pass. Unless Jacobs can find something, it’s gonna be a long night for Raiders fans.
Green Bay is also coming off a Thursday Night game, so they have a rest edge. Even as one of the few Raiders defenders pre-season, it’s gotta be Green Bay this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over Passing Yards
Jimmy G put up over 300 yards against the Steelers in his last game, when in a negative game script. If the Raiders fall behind Green Bay, he might be forced to throw the ball all over the lot, which would correlate well. And more than that, the Raiders don’t have any other choice.
The terrible performances Josh Jacobs has been putting up mean that Jimmy G will have to throw the ball a ton. 44 attempts against the Steelers might not be replicable, but something close to it seems likely, especially if the Packers get ahead.
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown ()
This is not solely a Narrative Street special, even though this is the first time Adams has played his former team. Adams is averaging 8 catches and 99 yards this season and has 3 TDs in 4 games. Given the condensed nature of the Raiders offense, if the Raiders are going to be throwing and they’re going to score touchdowns, it’s likely going to be Adams.
That said, this is also a little bit of Narrative Street. Adams will be up against his former teammates, and he’s been linked to Carolina in trade rumors all week. Either to showcase him for a trade if the Raiders have any interest or as a showcase of why he’s not going anywhere, a big Adams game has to be a high priority for everyone. It also correlates well with Jimmy G going over his passing number.
Best Sports Betting Promos For Monday Night Football
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