NFL Matchups: Patriots Rush Attack Among 3 Big Week 6 Mismatches

Written By Jeffrey Schreiber on October 13, 2022
nfl matchups

The NFL matchups within the matchup are important for bettors to understand each week. These micro matchups go a long way in deciding the outcome of games, especially when one side has a significant production advantage over the other. With the NFL player prop market gaining more and more traction, it’s important to exploit the most edge we possibly can.

Let’s breakdown three of the biggest NFL matchups to watch within Week 6 odds.

PATRIOTS RUNNING GAME VS. BROWNS

The Patriots have a potential mismatch with their rushing attack in Week 6 against the Browns. New England is ranked as the No. 4 rushing offense by Pro Football Focus while ranking top 10 in yards per play this season.  

Cleveland ranks dead last in rushing defense DVOA, while being ranked the worst rush defense by PFF. The Browns are also bottom five in tackling, yards per rush allowed, and yards per play. The Browns allowance of 5.3 yards per carry is the third-most in the NFL. 

Starting RB Damien Harris hurt his hamstring in the first half of Week 5 and didn’t return, allowing Rhamondre Stevenson to post monstrous numbers as the only remaining RB in a blowout victory. Stevenson finished with 25 carries for 161 yards to go along with two catches for 16 yards through the air. With Ty Montgomery still sidelined, Stevenson could have a golden opportunity in front of him if Harris can’t go in Week 6. The Pats would likely have Pierre Strong and/or J.J. Taylor active, but Stevenson would clearly be the alpha RB1 for a run-heavy team.

PFF grades Stevenson out as the No. 3 overall RB in football. At the time of publish, yardage props had not been released yet, but those will populate in the table below closer to kickoff.

Rhamondre Stevenson Props

BUCCANEERS PASSING GAME VS. STEELERS

The Buccaneers have a potential mismatch with their passing game in Week 6 against the Steelers. Tampa Bay has the No. 4 graded passing offense in the NFL, per PFF. The Bucs early-season concerns of not being able to protect Tom Brady are gone as Brady is the least pressured QB in football.

Pittsburgh is bottom-five in pressure rate. The Steelers pass defense has been terrible thus far, ranking bottom 10 in yards per play and yards per pass allowed. Finally, the Steelers are in the bottom half of the league in defense EPA.

Already missing All-Pro EDGE T.J. Watt, the Steelers lost DT Larry Ogunjobi and CBs Cam Sutton and Levi Wallace in Week 5’s blowout loss to Buffalo. Permitting the league’s sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.5) and now severely shorthanded in the secondary, the Steelers are bound to be picked apart by Tom Brady. Brady averaged 49 pass attempts per game over the past three weeks and now has a near-full-strength WR core.

Pittsburgh has been torched in the secondary thus far in 2022, allowing five different receivers to eclipse 100+ receiving yards and a TD. Brady has completed 84% of his passes intended for WR Chris Godwin, who is due for positive regression in receiving yards and receiving TDs. Look for Godwin and Evans to go nuclear on Sunday.

Tom Brady Props

Mike Evans Props

Chris Godwin Props

SEAHAWKS PASSING GAME VS. CARDINALS

Among Week 6 NFL matchups, this one is eye-popping.

The Seahawks have a potential mismatch with their passing game in Week 6 against the Cardinals. Seattle is graded as the No. 1 passing offense DVOA and the No. 1 passing offense by PFF. The Seahawks are top five in offensive EPA, yards per play, yards per pass. Additionally, they rank top five in points per play and third-down offense. 

Arizona is the worst graded defense by PFF. The Cardinals are bottom 10 in yards per pass allowed, points per play, yards per play, defense EPA. Finally, they are a bottom 10 third-down and redzone defense. 

Geno Smith enters Week 6 showing a level of consistency in addition to difference-making upside. Equipped with two truly great wide receivers and above-expectation pass protection, Smith is converting big-plays downfield. The blitz-heavy Cardinals have surrendered the NFL’s fifth-most QB completions. Geno is also getting it done with his legs as he ranks 11th among quarterbacks in rushing yards (77). 

The Cardinals expectation of having success against a poor Seattle defense, should only pad Genos stats here as Seattle will not be able to take their foot off the gas. Metcalf enters Week 6 averaging 10 targets and 100 yards receiving over his last three games. Atop one of the league’s narrowest target distributions and 13th in the NFL in Air Yards share (37%), Metcalf is a locked-in bet here. On throws from Geno, Lockett leads Seattle in catches (32), yards (406), and first-down conversions (18). 

Geno Smith Props

DK Metcalf Props

Tyler Lockett Props

Best of luck handicapping Week 6 NFL matchups.

Jeffrey Schreiber Avatar
Written by
Jeffrey Schreiber

Jeffrey Schreiber is a sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media. Jeff is recent college graduate with a background in finance and analytics. His goal is to provide readers with data and information behind the "why" to make a bet. His most memorable betting moment came during the divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs when he turned $37 in same-game parlay bets into $25,000.

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