The Recency Report: NFL Week 7 Market Moves And Week 8 Lookahead Lines

Posted By FairwayJay on October 23, 2020 - Last Updated on October 24, 2020
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The Lines dishes out its weekly look at movement in betting markets in the NFL. Both sportsbooks and bettors are starting to get a good feel of which teams are legitimate contenders and which teams are also-rans as we near the halfway point in the season. Here is a look at market movement ahead of Week 7 and an early betting preview of Week 8.

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NFL Week 7 market movement

The biggest Week 7 market moves and adjustments from last week’s lookahead lines to now include:

  • Bills from -10.5 to -12 on the road vs. Jets
  • Cowboys from -4.5 to -1 on the road vs. Washington
  • Patriots from -5.5 to -2.5 vs. 49ers
  • Browns from -5 to -3.5 on the road vs. Bengals
  • Buccaneers from -2.5 to -4.5 on the road vs. Raiders

At FanDuel, the Packers (-3.5) and Bills (-12) have the most lopsided percentages of bets and money on the point spread for their games, as of Thursday. Green Bay has taken 96% of the spread bets and 97% of the handle while Buffalo gets 92% support on side bets and 95% of the money wagered.

  • The Bears (86%), Cowboys (82%), Seahawks (81%) and Buccaneers (78%) are the next most popular side bets. The line has nudged up a half point from the opener on the Bears (+6) and Seahawks (-3.5).
  • The Steelers (+1.5) and Chiefs (-9.5) are both taking 69% of the spread bets.

Scoring dropped to 47.3 points per game in Week 6 and for the season NFL games are averaging 50.7 points per game. Week 7 has seven more games with posted totals of 50 points or more, which is now the norm at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The highest totals in Week 7 include:

At FanDuel Sportsbook, 76% of the Over/Under bets and 85% of the money is wagered on the Over in the Packers vs. Texans game, which is the highest percentage of money on an Over in Week 7. The highest percentage of money on the Under is Kansas City at Denver, which has dipped down to 45.5.

The Seahawks (5-0) are undefeated and are coming off their bye week. Seattle, which now faces the Cardinals, is the highest rated NFC team in TheLines’ Week 7 power rankings. The Cardinals, meanwhile, sit at No. 18 in the rankings. The Cards are surprisingly 0-6 when it comes to hitting the Over this year, with only one game reaching 50 points. But bettors are supporting Over this week against the Seahawks, who feature the NFL’s worst defense in yards allowed at 471 yards per game.

NFL Week 8 lines

MatchupLookahead lineCurrent line (Oct. 30)
Atlanta at CarolinaPanthers -3Panthers -1.5
Indianapolis at DetroitColts -3Colts -2.5
Las Vegas at ClevelandBrowns -3Browns -2.5
LA Rams at MiamiRams -3.5Rams -3
Minnesota at Green BayPackers -5.5Packers -5.5
New England at BuffaloBills -3Bills -3.5
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs -21Chiefs -19.5
Pittsburgh at BaltimoreRavens -5.5Ravens -3.5
Tennessee at CincinnatiTitans -4.5Titans -6
LA Chargers at DenverChargers -1Chargers -3
New Orleans at ChicagoSaints -3Saints -5.5
San Francisco at SeattleSeahawks -4.5Seahawks -2.5
Dallas at PhiladelphiaEagles -3.5Eagles -9.5
Tampa Bay at New York GiantsBuccaneers -9.5Buccaneers -11.5

Week 8 betting breakdown

Week 8 has a number of key divisional games and one lopsided spread:

New England at Buffalo: This game should attract significant action with the Patriots (+2.5) as a road underdog for the third time this season. The Pats went 0-2 straight-up and against the spread against the Seahawks and Chiefs. Buffalo leads the AFC East at 4-2 going into Week 7, while the Patriots are 2-3. The line will certainly move up in support of Buffalo if New England loses at home to San Francisco in Week 7.

NY Jets at Kansas City: Did you see the massive lookahead line on this game? The Chiefs are a 21-point favorite and a double-digit loss by the Jets to the Bills in Week 7 may move this line up higher. The only other time the Jets started 0-6 was in 1996 when the flyboys finished 1-15. The largest point spread in franchise history was +20.5, and it happened twice (2007 vs. New England and last year vs. New England). Only eight times in modern NFL history has a team been at least a 21-point underdog. The Jets are averaging a league-worst 12.5 points per game on offense and are tied at the bottom with 276 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play marks.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: A huge rivalry for first place in the AFC North. The lookahead line of Ravens -5.5 is likely to drop as the undefeated Steelers (5-0) travel for the second straight week off their Week 7 game at Tennessee. The Ravens (5-1) will enter the key division showdown off a bye in Week 7. Baltimore features the league’s No. 1 scoring defense (17.3) while Pittsburgh is tied at No. 2 at 18.8. But the Steelers are top-3 in both total yards defense (285) and yards per play defense (4.9), which makes them a live underdog against the Ravens (339/5.1 defense). The running games will be featured with both teams averaging at least 30 rushing attempts per game. The Ravens and Steelers are both top-3 in the current power rankings at TheLines.

San Francisco at Seattle: Another key division game where the underdog will garner support. The Seahawks (5-0) are a 4.5-point favorite on the lookahead line, and Seattle is the most fortunate undefeated team in years. Quarterback Russell Wilson is the deserving early season MVP favorite but the Seahawks defense is a sieve. The Seahawks may well lose at Arizona in Week 7, which could drop this line.

 

 

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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