The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas has released the NFL look-ahead lines for Week 8, and just one home underdog is on the card. That follows a Week 6 that saw three home underdogs pull upsets and home dogs go 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS. Dallas, Washington and Miami all won outright as home underdogs. The season-to-date numbers show home underdogs very profitable at 20-10 ATS.
However, the Week 6 look ahead lines had Washington and Miami favored before the market adjusted and bookmakers took more bets on the other side with Carolina and Chicago betters ultimately getting burned. Same with Browns bettors, as Cleveland opened a underdog over the LA Chargers before closing a slight favorite and burying Browns bettors in an embarrassing 38-14 defeat.
The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events they saw most recently. That’s especially true on the nationally televised primetime games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night. More so this week as New England beat Kansas City 43-40 Sunday night and Green Bay rallied to beat San Francisco at the wire 33-30, continuing the record-setting scoring this season.
Adjusting to market moves
While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistical profiles, player performance, and scheduling situations, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.
Last week’s four biggest market moves from the look-ahead line to the adjusted line following the Week 6 results saw Baltimore, Seattle and Tampa Bay all cover the adjusted price while Chicago bettors got buried by the Bears in a road loss at Miami.
Week 7 look-ahead lines and major moves
For the Week 7 games on Sunday, Oct. 21, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line and current line:
- Tennessee at LA Chargers (-3) – Current line Chargers -6.5
- Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-1.5) – Current line Buccaneers -3.5
- Buffalo at Indianapolis (-5.5) – Current line Colts -7.5
- New Orleans at Baltimore (PK) – Current line Ravens -2.5
- LA Rams at San Francisco (+12.5) – Current line Rams -10
- NY Giants at Atlanta (-3.5) – Current line Falcons -5.5 (Monday night)
Recent results, injuries and public perception have impacted these games more than others from an adjusted line standpoint. Particularly with the Buffalo Bills, as QB Josh Allen is out indefinitely following an elbow injury last week and head coach Sean McDermott announced Wednesday that Derek Anderson would start at quarterback instead of Nathan Peterman, who threw another costly interception late in last week’s loss at Houston. Anderson has been with the Bills less than one week.
Browns bettors burned last week probably won’t be betting on Cleveland this week at Tampa Bay despite the apparent added value in the line. Much of American saw the shootout in New England Sunday night as the Patriots held off the previously undefeated Kansas City 43-40. Since the Bears blew the game at Miami and cost many bettors money, it’s likely public bettors will support the Patriots this week at Chicago, despite the likely letdown situation off the big win over Kansas City and the Bears boasting the stronger defense and overall stat profiles.
As you watch and evaluate the games, injuries, key game-changing calls and go inside the numbers in boxscores and stats, try your best not to overreact to the scores and a recent result or two. By looking ahead to the point spread posted in advance by the Westgate, you can better gauge and understand the bookmaker’s thoughts and approach and make your adjustments without influence from the recent games and results.
NFL Week 8 look-ahead betting lines
- Miami at Houston (OFF) – Thursday Night
- Philadelphia vs Jacksonville (PK) – London
- Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-7.5)
- Denver at Kansas City (-9.5)
- New York Jets at Chicago (-5)
- Washington at New York Giants (-1)
- Seattle at Detroit (-2.5)
- Tampa Bay at Cincinnati (-5)
- Baltimore at Carolina (PK)
- Indianapolis at Oakland (-1.5)
- San Francisco at Arizona (-2)
- Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams (-8.5)
- New Orleans at Minnesota (-3) – Sunday Night
- New England (-10.5) at Buffalo – Monday Night
ALSO READ: NFL Week 7 Lines And NJ Betting Guide