Every Tuesday, the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas releases the NFL look-ahead lines for the following week’s games. These are anticipated betting lines on the following week’s games prior to the current week’s games being played.
The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events we saw most recently. That’s especially true on the nationally televised primetime games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night.
Adjusting to market moves
While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistic profiles, player performance, and scheduling situations, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.
Most bettors will bet the favorites, and over the total. Yet in Week 3 many bettors were buried as underdogs went 11-5 against the spread (ATS). We’ve seen scoring rise this season through five weeks to nearly 48 points per game, and the linemaker has adjusted the posted totals upward accordingly every week.
Usually, there is not much difference in the NFL look ahead/advance line and the current line once the numbers are posted Sunday night and Monday morning. However, there are usually at least a few games where the line is 2-3 points difference between the look-ahead line and current line.
Week 6 look-ahead lines and major moves
For the Week 6 games on Sunday, Oct. 14, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line and current line:
- Chicago at Miami (-1) – Current Line Miami +3.5
- Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-6) – Current Line Atlanta -3
- Seattle vs Oakland (PK) in London – Current Line Seattle -3
- Baltimore at Tennessee (+1) – Current Line Tennessee +3
Recent results, injuries and public perception and have impacted these four games more than others from an adjusted line standpoint. Both the Bears and Bucs enter off a bye, and Miami lost badly at New England two weeks ago and then blew a 17-0 lead last week at Cincinnati in a 27-17 defeat that left Dolphins bettors bitter. Fewer bettors are lining up on Miami now.
Atlanta is battling through numerous player injuries especially on defense. Oakland continues to struggle, and bettors want no part of the Raiders right now while Seattle hung tough with the LA Rams last week, but a letdown could be looming and both teams defenses have been deficient. Tennessee lost at Buffalo last week, costing many bettors money both straight up and in teasers. The Ravens also cost bettors in an OT loss at Cleveland, but this too is an overreaction in the line.
The NFL is difficult for most bettors to beat when betting, yet there is certainly no lack of excitement or drama when it comes to deciding which teams win and lose each week, or the point spread outcome. That’s part of the reason why the NFL is so popular, as so many games are decided late in the contest with the point spread result in the balance. In Week 4 alone, nine of the 15 games went down to the final possession, and three games went to overtime on Sunday.
As you watch and evaluate the games, injuries, key game-changing calls and go inside the numbers in boxscores and stats, try your best not to overreact to the scores and a recent result or two. By looking ahead to the point spread posted in advance by the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas, you can stay more grounded and understand the linemakers approach and thoughts on a game and betting line more than a week in advance of the contests.
NFL Week 7 look-ahead betting lines
- Denver (-2.5) at Arizona – Thursday Night
- Tennessee vs LA Chargers (-3) – London
- New England (-3) at Chicago
- Cleveland at Tampa Bay (-1.5)
- Detroit (-2) at Miami
- Carolina at Philadelphia (-3)
- Buffalo at Indianapolis (-5.5)
- Cincinnati at Kansas City (-6.5)
- Minnesota (-4) at NY Jets
- Houston at Jacksonville (N/A)
- New Orleans at Baltimore (PK)
- Dallas at Washington (-3)
- LA Rams (-12.5) at San Francisco – Sunday Night
- NY Giants at Atlanta (-3.5) – Monday Night
ALSO READ: NFL Week 6 Lines And NJ Betting Guide