NFL Week 9 Key Numbers: Ton Of Games To Monitor At 3
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
NFL Week 9 odds feature an incredible 10 games hovering around the key number of three. That means line shopping will be more important this week than pretty much ever before.
NFL Week 9 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Titans At Steelers
Look-ahead lines had Steelers odds above the key number here, but the impressive — depending on your point of view — Will Levis debut combined with another inept Steelers offensive performance has moved the market. There are a few things to keep in mind here.
For one thing, does the change from Kenny Pickett to Mitch Trubisky following the starting QB’s injury mean anything? In all likelihood, these players should be expected to produce similar outputs.
Second, how repeatable is Levis’s performance? He hit on a number of big plays, but the down-to-down consistency wasn’t there, evidenced by the team’s poor performance in Success Rate (just 41% overall, 29% on pass plays). Titans odds have dipped as low as +2.5 in some spots, so be sure to get the key number if you’re looking to back the underdog, particularly in an expected low-scoring affair.
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Dolphins At Chiefs
This one remains hovering under the key number, and it doesn’t seem likely it will get there. Miami has faced off against a couple of elite teams already in Philadelphia and Buffalo, and in both instances, the most frequently seen number at your sports betting site of choice would have been +2.5 on Dolphins odds.
Keep in mind, despite the results, that both of those games came on the road. On a neutral site against a similarly power-rated team, bettors probably won’t see a +3.
Rams At Packers
Markets originally had Rams odds as the favorite on the road as Green Bay continues to churn out putrid performances.
However, the market appears to expect Matt Stafford will miss this game. The team has labeled him “week to week” with a partially torn UCL in his thumb. Backup Brett Rypien relieved him, and he has a poor track record as a backup (5.9 YPA, 4-8 TD-INT). Therefore, Packers odds now lay the key number, and additional -120 juice on the -3 points to a possible move to -3.5 soon.
Those looking to back Rypien should wait and buy as low as possible.
Buccaneers At Texans
Houston had a rough Week 8, becoming the first and only team to lose to the Carolina Panthers. However, Texans odds have actually gotten some market interest in Week 9, nudging up to a cheap -3 in some spots while remaining at an expensive -2.5 in others. Tampa Bay had a poor Week 8 effort, with the final score of 24-16 frankly not reflecting the Bills’ dominance.
This is a case where backers looking to bet either side can get the line they want currently. A consensus number will probably appear by Thursday, so betting this one early makes sense.
Commanders At Patriots
Interestingly, despite the Patriots getting stomped by the Dolphins and the Commanders putting up another good fight against the Eagles, Patriots odds have gotten early love in Week 9. Washington did deal star EDGE Montez Sweat early on Tuesday, but the number had already moved this way.
Commanders odds should have reached their peak in theory, given that it’s hard to imagine much power rating separation between these teams. If you’re looking to bet Washington, +3 should be your buy point.
Colts At Panthers
The aforementioned Panthers may have gotten a win, but 3.7 YPP and a 36% Success Rate (just 13% on rushing plays!) is not a great way to improve market confidence. Thus, Colts odds have crept up to -3 in some spots, with FanDuel Sportsbook and BetRivers cautiously taking the plunge while delivering a cheap price.
Keep in mind that last week, a Houston team likely power-rated very similarly to Indianapolis reached -3.5 against this same Panthers bunch. It wouldn’t be out of the question for Panthers odds to repeat that move.
Cowboys At Eagles
With how well Dallas has been playing, sharps would surely snap up any Cowboys odds that hit +3.5 in this critical NFC East showdown. Given the Eagles only laid -2.5 against a Miami team that seems to clearly be rated ahead of Dallas by the market, those looking to bet Eagles odds probably aren’t going to do better than -3 either. Expect little movement here.
Giants At Raiders
Following the putrid offensive performance by the New York Giants in the East Rutherford Bowl last week — they achieved the ultra-rare feat of negative team passing yardage — markets reopened with Raiders odds laying -3.5 here.
However, the good news about Daniel Jones’ health seems to have moved Giants odds downward in a hurry. The team said it expected Jones to practice as early as Tuesday. Bless Tommy DeVito’s heart, but he represents a significant downgrade, as rough as Jones has been this year. If there was any chance of DeVito baked into this market, it’s quickly being bet out as the Giants are no longer getting the key number.
Bills At Bengals
Believe it or not, the Bills were actually favored here in look-ahead markets. Apparently, flying across the country (albeit off the bye) and stomping the 49ers had the market doing an immediate 180 on Bengals odds. The line climbed to Bills odds +3 on Monday but influential bettors snapped up the key number and most of the market has settled back at +2.5.
Keep an eye on this one, as both teams could be actively adding pieces at the trade deadline as well. The Bills, in particular, figure to have motivation after finding themselves short-handed due to a pile of injuries.
Chargers At Jets
This was yet another that did not open around the key number, but the Chargers looked more like their effective selves in completely dismantling the short-handed Bears. And on the other side, the Jets are quite possibly the most offense-challenged 4-3 team in recent NFL history.
The market seems well aware the Jets are probably fraudulent, record-wise. Don’t be surprised to see Chargers odds as high as -3.5 come kickoff time, with the Jets adding a slew of offensive-line injuries to their woes in that department.
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Week 9 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Bears At Saints
New Orleans opened south of the key number, but everyone tuned in for Sunday Night Football to see Tyson Bagent look in over his head when not facing the Raiders at home. Now, he gets a very capable Saints defense (sixth in EPA/play allowed) on the road in a tough environment. Not great.
Thus, Bears odds have rightfully moved past a touchdown, as early reports have Bagent the expected starter again.
New Orleans also just played probably its strongest game of the season, so its market perception is peaking.
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