NFL Week 8 Key Numbers: Broncos, Seahawks On The Move
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
Week 8 odds feature a more even mix than usual, with several spreads around the key number of seven, while we’ve mostly seen spreads around three. The Broncos and Seahawks are moving toward and away from NFL key numbers, respectively, as money floods in on those sides.
NFL Week 8 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Jaguars At Steelers
This number matches the early look-ahead lines, but action on Jaguars odds does look to have the line teetering. Jaguars -2.5 features some additional juice at many sports betting sites, with BetRivers hanging the lone -3. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the market did briefly touch +3 on Steelers odds, but that only lasted a few hours.
Wait it out if you like the Steelers unless you just want to throw them in a teaser bet.
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Jets At Giants
This game has the opposite situation as the above, with underdog Giants odds as the juiced side, meaning bettors could see Jets odds reach -2.5 in the coming days. It already dipped that low for about a day on DraftKings Sportsbook.
An interesting subplot to monitor in this one: what if anything happens to the betting line when Daniel Jones retakes his job as Giants QB? Coach Brian Daboll maintains that will be the case despite the offense moving notably better with Tyrod Taylor at the helm. It sounds like Jones is 50/50 at best this week, as he has yet to be cleared for contact.
Texans At Panthers
This intriguing matchup of young QBs off their bye weeks is yet another that hasn’t seen much movement, with the current number matching the look-ahead lines. Texans odds did briefly hit -2.5 on DK Sportsbook, but buyback came in after a few hours and moved back to the key number.
The key question here is whether Bryce Young’s progress in the team’s past two games was legitimate or a mirage built on garbage time and a sleepy Dolphins team. Either way, bettors seem likely to see three here most of the way, but if the line goes anywhere, it looks like it will move toward Carolina.
Falcons At Titans
The Titans announced that they’re prepping second-round rookie Will Levis to start the home game against Atlanta. A market that already expressed pessimism for Titans odds, reopening them as very short home underdogs after look-ahead lines had them about pick’em, has made a definitive statement of no confidence. Falcons odds have shifted all the way to -3, albeit with a couple of very expensive -2.5s still on the board.
It’s anyone’s guess what happens with the Titans QBs, especially given the reports have stated both Levis and Malik Willis will likely play. Could bettors see Falcons -3.5, given how much improved the passing game has looked in recent weeks?
Browns At Seahawks
The Seahawks were barely favored in early markets, but another likely PJ Walker start has the market moving on Seahawks odds. They moved all the way through the key number and now sit on the other side of it.
Looking at each team’s results last week, it’s not hard to see why. While the Browns pulled out a win, they were vastly outgained by the Colts. Walker led the passing game to a dreadful 4.3 YPA passing. Meanwhile, the Seahawks completely dominated the Cardinals but played their second-consecutive low-scoring game due to turnover issues.
Have Browns odds moved too far, though? They still have a dream matchup with their pass rush against a weak Seattle line.
Bengals At 49ers
Brock Purdy finally showed some cracks the past couple of weeks, but was the down performance against the Vikings due to a concussion? It sounds like Sam Darnold will be in line to start this week, and Bengals odds have zoomed toward the key number after hanging around +6 in early markets.
49ers odds could still drop to -3 or even below that, but we’ve seen Kyle Shanahan work magic with a variety of QBs in the past. Watch their injury report, though, as key performers Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams missed the last game, and the offense looked out of sorts at times.
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Week 8 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Eagles At Commanders
Many of the sportsbooks seem to be leaning toward giving Commanders odds the key number here, with Eagles -6.5 having increased juice to -115. This one hasn’t seen much movement, so the number may have already reached its ceiling, but believers in Washington could wait and see if a +7 pops by game time. The Eagles are coming off a big win and have an extremely daunting schedule ahead, making this a possible look-ahead spot.
Rams At Cowboys
After a week in which they failed to win as decent home favorites, the Rams face another tough matchup in a team that can bring the heat, the Dallas Cowboys off a bye. Yet, Rams odds got some initial love with the number as short as +5.5 before Cowboys money has brought it back where the look-ahead lines sat.
Cowboys odds all the way to -7 seems like a bridge too far, so Rams bettors may want to jump in with at least part of their stake unless they don’t mind taking a +6 if it moves the other way.
Chiefs At Broncos
There seems to be a real tug-of-war happening with this one, but the side that likes Broncos odds is slowly winning. Look-ahead markets had Chiefs odds -8.5, but after reopening at -8, the number dipped to -7, bounced back to -7.5, then back to -7. Most of the sportsbooks are dealing -7, with some adding juice to the KC side.
Broncos backers should latch onto the key number before it is gone. Keep an eye on possible snowy conditions in NFL weather here, which figures to favor Denver.
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