NFL Week 7 Key Numbers: Lions Getting The Full +3 In Baltimore
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
Week 7 odds feature several spreads around three and a few around seven. The former set includes a matchup of Super Bowl odds hopefuls in Baltimore.
NFL Week 7 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Falcons At Buccaneers
Both of these teams disappointed in Week 6, the Buccaneers with a chance to grab a statement win at home against the Lions. There’s been a bit of Jekyll and Hyde lately to Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder’s game, as he has sandwiched terrible performances with multiple interceptions around a gem against Houston.
Those looking to bet Falcons odds can wait to see if they can grab +3, but such a number doesn’t seem likely to hit the board, considering the current market matches the look-ahead lines. However, the juice points that way at a couple of sports betting sites.
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Lions At Ravens
Despite the Lions’ trouncing of Tampa Bay on the road and with the opponent off a bye, the market appears to have been more impressed with the Ravens handling Tennessee in London. Baltimore nudged up to lay the key number.
The market has settled there, but don’t rule out late action possibly moving Lions odds back. Few if any teams have generated more profit. The Lions have won and covered four straight, beating the market by an average of about 10 points in those games.
Browns At Colts
Both teams have questions at QB in this game. Gardner Minshew continues to underperform when opposing teams game plan for him as the starter. And whether the Browns will start PJ Walker or Deshaun Watson remains unknown at this juncture.
Consequently, Colts odds have seen a bit of a bump. Market confidence in Walker remains quite low, as bettors did just watch an incredible spread inflation. Browns odds went from +3.5 all the way to a peak of +10 in Week 6 following the announcement that Watson would sit out again.
Obviously, this matchup doesn’t present the same dangers as the 49ers. The Browns offensive line was able to keep the offense afloat despite a couple of Walker interceptions. Indianapolis ranks 19th in EPA/play allowed.
Raiders At Bears
Which starting QB if any will play in this game? As of Tuesday, the expectation is that Bears QB Justin Fields will sit out after injuring but not breaking his thumb. Meanwhile, the Raiders may or may not be without Jimmy Garoppolo. Brian Hoyer is probably a more capable backup than Tyson Bagent, a fifth-round rookie who played at the Division II level. Still, Hoyer has his own question marks, having not been credited with an NFL win since 2016.
Steelers At Rams
The Rams passing attack had another strong showing, but we’ve seen their efficiency drop when the opposition can put pressure on Matthew Stafford. Pittsburgh and its top-10 pressure rate should fit the bill there, especially off the bye, but Rams odds have solidified at -3 after look-ahead lines had either -2.5 or Steelers odds at a juiced +3.
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Week 7 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Cardinals At Seahawks
Seahawks odds have moved as high as -8, but there are still some -7.5s out there as of Tuesday afternoon. Even that number represents some inflation off the look-ahead line after Arizona got drubbed by the Rams. This number should remain north of the key number, as Geno Smith’s red-zone meltdowns don’t seem likely to repeat, and the Seahawks offense should have little trouble moving the ball on this dreadful defense.
49ers At Vikings
Some look-ahead lines had 49ers odds laying a cheap -7.5, but the market has now leaned the other way. San Francisco finally looked vulnerable and sustained multiple key NFL injuries, including to Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, and Deebo Samuel. BetRivers is welcoming 49ers money, dropping below the key number, while other sports betting sites have tagged Vikings odds with expensive prices as high as -120 for a +7.
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