NFL Week 6 Key Numbers: Seahawks-Bengals Bouncing On And Off 3
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
Week 6 brings us back to a bigger count of NFL games with key numbers in play. A host of games sit near three, and there are a few games near seven this week as well.
NFL Week 6 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Commanders At Falcons
Initial look-ahead lines had this game closer, but the Commanders authored a complete stinkbomb on national TV last Thursday against the lowly Bears. If Commanders odds were to hit +3, they would likely receive a flood of Week 6 action against an Atlanta team that the market hasn’t been excited about in recent weeks. Therefore, this may be the peak of the market for Atlanta.
Bettors must decide whether that Bears game represented an outlier for Washington.
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Vikings At Bears
NFL Week 6 injuries loom large here. Chiefly, ace Vikings WR Justin Jefferson exited the home game against Kansas City and will now reportedly go on IR. Jefferson is widely considered one of the few non-QBs who makes an immediate material difference to the line. Thus, it’s no surprise Vikings odds have dipped here, especially with Chicago looking competent on offense for the second straight game.
Keep in mind Minnesota leads the NFL in passing percentage per TeamRankings. Therefore, Jefferson’s absence has an outsized impact.
Seahawks At Bengals
After the Bengals won on the road and Joe Burrow looked at least a little more like himself, Seahawks odds settled at +3 on Monday morning. However, sharps gobbled that up and the line moved quickly to +2.5 by noon or so. Now, the Bengals odds no longer lay the key number, making them a more attractive side for the moment.
Seahawks bettors may want to wait this one out and see if +3 pops again. Or, they could use Seattle in a teaser bet.
Patriots At Raiders
No team has embarrassed themselves in back-to-back weeks quite like what the Patriots have authored entering Week 6. What was a Raiders -1 in look-ahead markets now has Raiders odds laying the key number. Their victory on Monday Night Football couldn’t be called impressive, necessarily, but probably didn’t hurt.
One might be tempted to think the Raiders have hit their peak, but BetRivers has moved to -3.5.
Lions At Buccaneers
This line has not seen much movement thus far, with Lions odds laying exactly the key number. However, the juice is telling a story, and with -115s and -120s across the board, this line is teetering toward -3.5. Those looking to bet Buccaneers odds should wait for that, and keep in mind the injury report could move this one, too. Good news on Amon-Ra St. Brown would increase market confidence in Detroit.
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Week 6 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Cardinals At Rams
Rams odds are in a similar spot in terms of the vig, with several of the best sports betting sites hanging -115 on Rams -6.5. The return of Cooper Kupp went swimmingly in terms of health as he played plenty of snaps and didn’t experience a setback.
This number has already moved pretty far off the look-ahead of Rams -4.5. Therefore, hoping for Cardinals odds to reach +7 may be in vain.
Eagles At Jets
Eagles money has flooded the market after they dominated the Rams. The number has moved early in the week, causing Eagles odds to lay the key number. Given the amount of market support for Philadelphia and the perception of a good matchup with the Eagles’ pass rush against the fragile Zach Wilson, it wouldn’t be crazy if Jets +7.5 popped up at some point.