NFL Week 5 Key Numbers: Cowboys Holding At +3.5 At 49ers
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like: numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. That is, they frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
Week 5 does not feature a slate with many key numbers in play. Currently, only a tiny handful of games are lined near key numbers. More of the markets than usual sit in no man’s land around five.
NFL Week 5 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Bengals At Cardinals
Life comes at you fast in this league. One day, you’re among the Super Bowl odds favorites, and a few weeks later, you’re only laying -3 against the once consensus worst team in the NFL. Note that this spread has taken a nosedive already after opening Bengals -8 in the look-ahead lines.
As bad as the Bengals have looked, the Cardinals have done just the opposite, outplaying market expectations in every game besides their last one. Even that one saw multiple dropped touchdowns on the final drive to secure a 49ers cover. Cardinals backers may want to grab the key number, but there’s an equally sound argument for waiting on a buyback at this point. It will be fascinating to see which way this one moves.
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Cowboys At 49ers
The Cowboys are getting the hook for the moment, with Caesars Sportsbook welcoming even more Dallas action at +4. Colleague Eli Hershkovich and I speculated that this would close with Cowboys odds at +3 during our opening lines report on YouTube.
At the same time, the 49ers have covered every week unless bettors laid -7.5 against the Rams. Market love is peaking there and the 49ers have gotten the better of Dallas in the past two seasons’ playoffs. Bettors are well aware of that.
Packers At Raiders
Bettors can get Packers odds as low as -1.5 here, but the majority of the market is closer to the key number.
Neither team impressed in Week 4, so this may be more of an injury-driven situation. How will the health of Jimmy Garoppolo progress? The Raiders QB didn’t sound particularly close to playing in Week 4, getting ruled out Saturday afternoon. If Aidan O’Connell is confirmed as the starter again, look for Green Bay to move as high as -3. Otherwise, if Garoppolo is good to go, we could see Raiders -1 here.
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Week 5 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Bears At Commanders
Commanders odds opened south of the key number, but early action poured in as bettors looked to fade this sad sack Bears bunch.
However, note that there was immediate buyback on Monday afternoon. As soon as Bears odds hit +7, they received action across the market. Some sports betting sites moved to +6.5 immediately, while others hung around with juiced +7s. Sharps clearly have a preference for the Bears at +7, while others like Washington at -6.5.
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