NFL Week 4 Key Numbers: Dolphins No Longer Getting +3 In AFC East Showdown
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are exactly what they sound like: numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. That is, they frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
Week 4 features a whopping nine games where the consensus line sits within a half-point of NFL key numbers. Three looks like it will play a particularly large role, with eight of the games hovering around the most crucial of all numbers. One such game, of course, is the biggest of the week and perhaps of the entire season so far.
NFL Week 4 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Falcons At Jaguars
Some shops opened Jaguars odds a bit higher for the opening London game of the 2023 season. However, they had one of the worst showings of Week 3, dropping a shocking home game to the Texans. The Falcons didn’t look good either, but at least one can respect losing to the Lions on the road. The market can’t seem to agree on the lean around this key number, as you can find whichever side you like at reduced juice if you do some line shopping.
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Dolphins At Bills
Savvy bettors utilizing our NFL look-ahead lines for Week 4 could have snagged Miami getting the hook at +3.5 above the most key of NFL key numbers. That looks significantly better than the current line, although to be fair, in a game with a massive total like this, the hook becomes considerably less valuable.
FanDuel Sportsbook seems to be welcoming bets on Dolphins odds with the only +3 at the time of writing, but consider shopping around for the best moneyline prices if that’s your side of choice. Watch and see if other sportsbooks follow suit on the key number.
Broncos At Bears
Amazingly enough, allowing 70 points wasn’t even the worst performance between these two teams in Week 3. Chicago looked so all-around inept that the market has moved Broncos odds not just to the key number here but all the way through it.
If you are willing to hold your nose and bet this Bears, this is probably the time. Some of the sportsbooks are holding Bears odds at a juiced +3, and we have already seen the market support the Bears after a poor performance when they got steamed in Week 2.
Ravens At Browns
The Ravens were initially favored in this one, but diverging Week 3 results have Browns odds now with a minus sign and approaching a key number.
This feels like a weekly copy and paste, but bettors must keep tabs on the Ravens’ injury report. The market steamed the Colts after a slew of key Ravens sat out. Sure enough, the injuries finally caught up with Baltimore as they dropped a shocking home game to a backup QB. A Browns -3 wouldn’t be out of the question here if Week 4 develops in similar fashion.
Bengals At Titans
Speaking of injuries, Joe Burrow managed to gut through Monday Night Football and said he didn’t experience a setback. On the downside, he still looks like a shell of himself, as he took some ugly sacks and had great difficulty getting the ball downfield. Incredibly, he sits at the bottom of EPA+CPOE composite rankings.
Apparently, the market felt encouraged enough — or perhaps disgusted enough with the Titans offense against the Browns — the nudge Bengals odds closer to the key number.
Buccaneers At Saints
This is primarily an injury-driven move. Look-ahead lines had Saints odds as high as -5. However, Derek Carr went down injured. His status remains up in the air but NFL injury news has made it sound like he’s an underdog to play.
Despite a poor Tampa Bay performance on Monday Night Football, we’re still seeing mostly -3s at the time of writing.
Vikings At Panthers
Another game where we could see a backup QB on duty. Carolina’s coaching staff described Bryce Young’s ankle sprain as a “one- to two-week” injury. That makes it sound like it’s a coin flip whether he goes this week. The market responded to last week’s missed game by moving Panthers odds in a positive direction, indicating Andy Dalton has more value than Young to the betting line.
But, this game has moved only one way thus far. Vikings odds opened south of the key number and another strong offensive performance combined with a dreadful showing by the Panthers D has Minnesota laying the hook now.
Steelers At Texans
Both teams won, but it seems the market was more impressed by the Texans. The win over the Jaguars has moved Texans odds to the Caesars Sportsbook number, after other shops had the early line at Steelers -4.5.
Steelers odds do carry additional juice at most sportsbooks, however. Texans backers may find themselves able to get the hook by waiting here, particularly if another rough injury report comes out. The team has been operating with a skeleton crew at offensive line and in the defensive backfield.
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NFL Week 4 Spreads Near Key Number 7
Patriots At Eagles
Bettors who believe in a bounce back from the Cowboys after their Week 3 face plant can find some Cowboys odds south of the key number here, albeit with some additional juice.
Patriots bettors nervous about losing the key number may be best served buying now, since it seems like the market leans that way at +7.
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