NFL Week 3 Key Numbers: Titans Move To +3 Against Browns
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind NFL key numbers. Key betting numbers are exactly what they sound like: numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. That is, they frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
Week 3 features just five games where the consensus line sits within a half-point of NFL key numbers. However, with Panthers odds and Ravens odds close enough that they could conceivably move there as well, we’ve included them in the writeups.
NFL Week 3 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Titans At Browns
Week 2 was not kind to the Browns. Not only did they suffer an ugly divisional loss at the hands of a Steelers team that did nothing on offense, but they also lost RB Nick Chubb for the season.
And this number has now reached the key number of 3 after the loss, after sitting at 3.5. Certainly, running backs have proved to be fungible, and Jerome Ford performed well in Chubb’s stead, ripping off a long TD run. Bettors will have to decide whether Chubb is worth something to the Browns spread in what’s likely to be a low-scoring affair against a similarly rush-oriented team.
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Falcons At Lions
This game has seen a big pullback from the look-ahead line of Lions -5.5. The Falcons really impressed in getting their offense going in Week 2, significantly outgaining the Packers. Thus, the line has settled all the way back on the NFL key number of Lions odds -3.
Given the direction and magnitude of the move, this is probably the time to pounce if you’re looking to bet on Detroit this week. Falcons backers may as well wait and see if they can get a +3.5.
Patriots At Jets
Zach Wilson’s first start of the new season looked … much like Zach Wilson’s starts in prior seasons. Wilson took three sacks and fired off 3 INTs in a dismal showing. The poor performance has moved the Patriots’ odds to -3 in some spots, but crucially, others are hanging Patriots -2.5 still.
The Jets scored a combined 20 in two meetings with New England last year. Wilson looked utterly hopeless in one of the games. Keep in mind that the market should be well aware of his poor history against Bill Belichick. This might be the last call on Patriots -2.5.
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NFL Week 3 Spreads Near Key Number 7
Broncos At Dolphins
DraftKings Sportsbook has led the charge on Dolphins odds here, moving the Fish up to -7 after the strong performance in New England. Bettors who like that side can avoid laying the key number by taking their action elsewhere.
However, a key NFL injury could still cause some movement back toward Denver here. Jaylen Waddle exited the game in concussion protocol, and the Dolphins do not have a strong group of potential backups to take his place. If he’s deemed a no-go for Sunday, look for Broncos odds to settle somewhere closer to +4 than +6.5 or +7.
Bills At Commanders
Writing up the Week 3 look-ahead lines, I predicted Bills odds would reach -7 this week after they took care of business against the Raiders. That indeed happened, however, the Commanders’ stirring comeback against the Broncos was enough to keep the Bills below the key number.
Still, with a bit of additional juice to the Bills’ side at some sportsbooks, the market does appear to lean that way. Don’t be surprised to see Commanders odds at +7 at some point this week.
Colts At Ravens
Anthony Richardson also finds himself in concussion protocol after Week 2 as he has experienced a bit of an injury-plagued start to his career. Thankfully for fans and those wishing to bet Colts odds, Indy has one of the most capable backups in the league in Gardner Minshew.
Given that look-ahead markets had Ravens odds right around this same number, it’s hard to know if the injury has been priced in or the market is just taking a “wait-and-see” approach. The Ravens have their own slew of injuries, even they didn’t slow the team down much against the Bengals.
Given all of the moving parts, it’s hard to guess whether this moves toward the key number or not.
Panthers At Seahawks
Another ugly showing from Bryce Young and this Carolina offense has moved Panthers odds closer to the key number for Week 3. Add in a short week and a Seahawks team that looked much more competent, and you have a recipe for a slight move here. BetMGM is already hanging Panthers +6.5, but no other sportsbook has made the move at the time of writing.
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