NFL Week 2 Key Numbers: Will Dolphins Reach 3-Point Road Favorites After Explosive Win?
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind NFL key numbers. Key numbers are exactly what they sound like: numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. That is, they frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
Week 2 features at eight games where the consensus line sits within a half-point of NFL key numbers. In fact, early bettors have already sniped some of these, including +7.5 on Vikings odds, and 49ers odds below -7. The latter has moved so much that it’s not even included below.
NFL Week 2 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Ravens At Bengals
The Bengals reopened here at -3 at DraftKings Sportsbook after sitting -3.5 prior to Week 1 action. Early action pushed them up to -3.5, which is where they sit at most of the market. However, those willing to overlook the ugly 82-yard performance from Joe Burrow can still grab an expensive -3 at DK.
The Ravens have a lot of bad news on the injury front. However, they could still get good news regarding key players like Mark Andrews and Ronnie Stanley. Therefore, Ravens odds could tick back downward as well.
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Chargers At Titans
DK Sportsbook hung a Titans +3.5 for a bit on Monday, and it actually lasted several hours before settling back at the consensus +3. Considering Chargers odds have some additional juice at many sportsbooks, and the Chargers entered the season with far more hype, a return to -3.5 could happen. Titans bettors should keep an eye on this one in case they can grab the hook.
Bears At Buccaneers
Both of these teams caught some Week 1 steam, but their performances diverged wildly. Justin Fields and Co. crashed and burned yet again, while the Bucs pulled off a pretty surprising upset.
This game featured one of the biggest moves from NFL look ahead lines as the Bears were actually favored initially. Given that Tampa Bay appears to be peaking in terms of market love, one might reasonably expect this to be the farthest this line goes. Therefore, it’s a reasonable time to jump on Bears odds, while those hoping to fade Chicago might wait and see if any sharp action moves this back under the key number.
Chiefs At Jaguars
With the drop-fest of Thursday Night Football still fresh in everyone’s mind, initial market love for Jaguars odds at home in an obvious playoff revenge spot can’t be too surprising.
One could find lines as low as Chiefs -2, but a correction has come. Chris Jones coming back in the fold is big after the KC defense got had a few times by a solid Lions rushing attack. If good Travis Kelce news follows, we could even see -3.5 here, so this may not be done moving. It seems safe to assume this one won’t dip back under the key number.
Commanders At Broncos
While this line seems pretty set at Broncos -3.5, a couple of sportsbooks have additional juice on Commanders odds.
That could perhaps hint at a move toward Washington, but keep in mind that Denver still has a key piece up in the air in WR Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos passing offense recalled the past few years’ Chargers bunch with its dumpoffs, no surprise under Joe Lombardi. Some additional juice in the form of a real WR target would help, and perhaps drive some love back toward Broncos odds.
Dolphins At Patriots
Few teams impressed more in Week 1 than Miami. However, the Patriots were no slouches either in nearly beating the Eagles, so this line barely budged from the offseason market number of Dolphins -1.
Early ticket counts indicate a ton of Dolphins love, but which side will the influential bettors back? If they remain off the Dolphins, we likely won’t see Patriots odds hit +3. That figures to be the magic number in this divisional battle for finding any value in fading the Miami offensive juggernaut. It’s no doubt worth waiting for if you have an interest in the Pats.
Saints At Panthers
Bryce Young and the Panthers had a day to forget in Atlanta. Aside from maybe a solid performance by the defense, they didn’t provide much optimism for Week 2.
After Saints odds opened at -2.5 at DK Sportsbook, the number has steadily marched upward to Saints -3.5, but the market has a split on this one with many sportsbooks at Saints -3. Bettors can grab the key number of choice currently, depending on which side they like, as long as they shop around.
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NFL Week 2 Spreads Near Key Number 7
Vikings At Eagles
Again, the Vikings’ poor performance in an upset loss to Tampa Bay caused some +7.5s to hang around the board early upon markets reopening. It looks like the sharp bettors already pounced on that one, as the Vikings are now getting +7 across the board as of about noon on Tuesday. NFL injury news early in the week looks a bit rough for Philly with starting LB Nakobe Dean and CB James Bradberry looking likely to miss Thursday’s game.
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