NFL Week 15 Key Numbers: Bills Inching Closer To -3 Vs. Cowboys
If NFL Week 15 odds are any judge, prepare yourself for a slew of game-winning field goals. The most key number of three looms large, with a whopping nine games dancing around it. Key playoff-like games figure in prominently, including one between the Bills and Cowboys, where playoff hopes and crucial seeding are on the line, respectively. Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these NFL key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
NFL Week 15 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Chargers At Raiders
Incredibly, look-ahead lines for this game actually had the Chargers laying the key number. However, Justin Herbert broke his finger, and now bettors are staring at an Easton Stick vs. Aidan O’Connell matchup and trying to figure what to make of it.
The market flipped to Raiders odds as field goal favorites. It’s anyone’s guess where this goes from here, as there isn’t much to go off when considering Stick’s potential level of effectiveness. The 2019 draftee (fifth round) has thrown 25 NFL passes, all but one of which came in relief of Herbert on Sunday. He didn’t embarrass himself (179 yards on 7.5 YPA), but all of his numbers came playing catch-up as the Broncos built a sizable lead.
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Vikings At Bengals
There is more QB uncertainty and another big line move. Most sports betting sites had Vikings odds as early road favorites, but they lost WR Justin Jefferson yet again and also benched Josh Dobbs after another ineffective performance. It’ll likely be Nick Mullens now against a suddenly spry (again) Bengals offense. Jake Browning has found his footing with back-to-back big games.
However, early action has come in on Minnesota. The Bengals may drop to the key number here, not much of a surprise considering the violent initial market shift. Those looking to back Bengals odds may want to wait and see.
Steelers At Colts
Both teams had very poor performances in Week 14, the Steelers losing at home to a listless Patriots team and the Colts taking a blowout on the chin from a backup QB-led Bengals bunch. Initially, the market had Colts odds laying the key number, but as Gardner Minshew continues to live on the edge of disaster, it’s hard to justify Indianapolis laying a field goal against a team with a pulse.
Don’t expect this number to climb back up, as the market bet against the Colts very aggressively last week.
Falcons At Panthers
Bettors could have gotten Falcons odds at just -2.5 if they struck early, but another dreadful Carolina performance has them laying the full field goal now. If anything, it’s a surprise the market hasn’t come in more strongly on the Falcons, considering they mostly dominated their matchup with the Buccaneers (+2 YPP).
The juice is already leaning toward Falcons -3.5 with an average price around -115 on the -3. Bettors should consider taking it before it’s gone, though it’s worth noting the Panthers have gotten some sharp backing the past couple of weeks.
Bears At Browns
Most of the market is sitting at either a cheap -3.5 or a very expensive -3 on Browns odds. Sharp respect for Bears odds has been evident since the return of Justin Fields, with the Bears covering three straight since his return and nearly winning all three as underdogs.
This team appears to be peaking late in the season, but initial interest has come in on the Browns. The move makes sense since it’s hard to square a clear AFC playoff team being only a point better than a 5-8 NFC North outfit, even if QB injury played a big role. Browns backers shouldn’t hold their breaths for another flat -3.
Texans At Titans
Injuries tell the tale for this game. CJ Stroud went down with a possible concussion, and even if he manages to return in a week, it’s unclear whether he’ll have any decent targets. Add Nico Collins to Tank Dell, who is already out for the season, on the list of injured Texans pass catchers.
Considering the passing offense has driven basically all of Houston’s success, it’s not much of a surprise to see Titans odds approaching field goal favorites, especially after their rousing comeback win in Miami.
Bettors looking to speculate on Texans odds in case Stroud and Collins return do have a +3 available at the time of writing via BetRivers.
Buccaneers At Packers
Despite the Packers’ poor result on Monday Night Football, there is not much movement here. As mentioned, the Bucs laid an egg in the box score but got the win in Atlanta. They’ll have to play better here on the road, and the market price looks like it’ll keep forcing Packers odds to lay the hook for the most part, although some expensive -3s have popped.
Cowboys At Bills
Given the incredibly dominant run of the Cowboys — only the Seahawks have gotten within 20 points since the first week of November — it’s surprising to see the strong market interest in Bills odds thus far. The Bills have inched close to the key number after only laying -1 in look-ahead lines. That’s particularly true when considering the Chiefs outplayed the Bills for most of the game, tallying a solid +1.1 mark in net yards per play.
If Cowboys odds hit +3, look for immediate buyback to potentially come in. Then again, perhaps the market is buying into the Bills with the thought that the Cowboys might be in a letdown spot while the Bills continue to fight for their lives in odds to make the NFL playoffs.
If so, maybe this does close Bills -3.
Ravens At Jaguars
While the line has come down here after Ravens odds were listed around -6, that has everything to do with the fact Trevor Lawrence opted to gut through an ankle injury and play. High ankle sprains can sometimes cost players multiple weeks, so it’s little surprise the market expected a possible absence even from this game.
Now, the Ravens are still laying the key number after Lawrence turned in a pretty ugly performance. Having said that, it came on the road against a defense that has been basically impenetrable there.
Expect any line movement here to reflect expectations of Lawrence’s health or lack thereof.
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Week 15 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Commanders At Rams
Matt Stafford and this Rams offense show no signs of slowing down, seeming to gain momentum each week. Meanwhile, the Commanders, though they play here after their bye, seem to get worse as the season wears on.
Thus, it doesn’t count as much of a surprise that the first -7 on Rams odds has popped. While the result ultimately went against them in Baltimore, there’s little reason to believe this isn’t an offense right around the top 10 as currently constructed. Washington will have their work cut out for them keeping up, considering the quality of their own secondary.
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