NFL Week 14 Key Numbers: Eagles Vs. Cowboys Line Darting Around 3
NFL Week 14 odds feature a pile of games sitting at or around key numbers. Foremost among those may be the NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Eagles, which could have major consequences on playoff seeding. Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
NFL Week 14 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Bears At Lions
The first time these teams met, sharps mercilessly hammered Bears odds. That proved prescient as Chicago nearly won on the road before blowing a late lead.
They’ve gone right back to the well. Look-ahead lines had Lions odds as short as -5. Despite a win and cover in Week 13 against the Saints, the market looks unimpressed with the Lions and expects another close game here. NFL weather also may factor into that, with Jared Goff notoriously weak outdoors and bad weather expected.
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Jaguars At Browns
It’s a fascinating market, as dual injuries to QB Trevor Lawrence and WR Christian Kirk have literally flipped the script here — Jaguars odds had the minus sign on the key number originally.
Joe Flacco’s insertion as the Browns’ starting quarterback seemed to breathe a little life into the offense. Incredibly, his 254-yard passing output was the team’s highest since Week 3 against the Titans.
However, the market has shown interest in the Jaguars early on. Sharp money has removed the hook here after Jaguars odds sat at +3.5 shortly after reopening with the expectation of no Lawrence.
Buccaneers At Falcons
Where else could a line between a couple of evenly matched NFC South teams be than between 0 and 2.5? This line has barely moved off the look-ahead number, which had Falcons odds at -2 across the board. If anything, expect a bit of interest in Buccaneers odds at an underdog price, but this market should close without touching a key number.
Vikings At Raiders
Early lines had the Vikings barely favored in this spot as speculation swirled over who would start at QB after Josh Dobbs authored a multiple-pick disaster on national TV. That speculation has ended in the middle of the week. After a slow build of Minnesota money pushed Vikings odds to the key number, the coaching staff announced Dobbs would continue piloting the offense. He’ll also gain a boost from Justin Jefferson’s return, which may also have affected this number.
With Raiders odds both at their potential peak and hitting the key number, bettors may finally see some buyback.
Bills At Chiefs
During the worst of the Buffalo’s downswing, one could find Bills odds at the key number or even above it against their AFC rivals. However, another unimpressive Chiefs game — perhaps their worst defensive performance of the season — combined with the Bills entering off a late bye has the market in on Buffalo.
Those interested in betting Chiefs odds are getting a pretty good price at this point, as this doesn’t seem likely to dip any further than Chiefs -1.
Broncos At Chargers
Enough money has come in on Broncos odds to push this one south of +3, with Denver now at a cheap +2.5 at most of the market.
The Chargers hobble into this after a disastrous offensive performance that luckily didn’t cost them the game in New England. A healthier receiving corps would go a long way here. Keep an eye on the banged-up Keenan Allen and whether the team activates Joshua Palmer from IR after designating him for a return early in the week.
The market has been excited to back Denver during the now-broken winning streak. We could see this close as low as Broncos +1.
Eagles At Cowboys
The weekend (and weekday) results seem to have solidified the idea that the Cowboys are a better team than the Eagles. After the 49ers crushed Philly, Cowboys odds have pushed above the key number, albeit with juice around -120.
How much did last week’s spot, rather than the matchup, feed into Eagles odds reaching as high as +3.5 at home against the 49ers? That’s really the question here, when trying to assess where this line may move. Because if the market is that down on the Eagles as a whole, then we may once again see this number settle at 3.5 with normal juice or even reach Cowboys -4.
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Week 14 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Rams At Ravens
The early movement here has been similar to that of the Eagles at Cowboys game. There’s been a bit of tug of war between sharps who like Ravens odds at -7 and those who like Rams odds at +7.5. As of Wednesday, the market has settled right on the key number, for the most part, although FanDuel Sportsbook continues to hang the hook on the Rams.
It’s a tough spot for L.A. traveling across the country to face a rested Ravens bunch off the bye. Interested Ravens bettors can avoid laying more than a touchdown here after the Rams money seems to have won out.
Packers At Giants
The Sunday Night Football victory over Kansas City did wonders for market perception of Packers odds, now pushing close to the key numbers after opening as long as -4.5. Green Bay does find itself in a tricky spot despite a strong push to playoff position. They’re coming off consecutive big wins and hitting the road to face a team out of its bye.
Giants odds could reach +7 and offer a buy point at the key number.
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