NFL Week 13 Key Numbers: 49ers Steamed To -3 At Eagles
NFL Week 13 odds feature some bigger spreads. Combine that with several byes, and we have a smaller-than-usual selection of key numbers to monitor. One does involve the game of the week (year?), though. Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
NFL Week 13 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Falcons At Jets
The Falcons were very short favorites on the look-ahead lines, but the Tim Boyle experience did not go well. In his starting debut, only a touchdown in the dying minutes got the Jets to double digits in a convincing 34-13 loss. Boyle posted 4.7 YPA and 130 net passing yards despite extended garbage time.
That’s the kind of thing that will get the market to react. Sure enough, the Falcons odds climbed to -3, hitting the key number early in the week.
Now, some buyback did emerge on the Jets at that point, causing the market to settle at a consensus of Jets odds +2.5. So, there’s at least some appetite for the Jets at the key number, but it doesn’t look like sharp money is backing them at anything south of that.
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Broncos At Texans
The Broncos just keep churning out wins despite mediocre offensive outputs, and that continued in Week 12 as the defense again did the heavy lifting against Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
This matchup looks much different, as CJ Stroud and the Texans will put some pressure on this offense, which is perhaps why the market has come in on Texans odds early. They’ve inched above the key number and are now laying -3.5 against a Denver team on a stunning five-game winning streak.
Broncos odds could be peaking here.
Browns At Rams
Speaking of the Browns’ offense, they are now performing poorly and are also injured. Amari Cooper and Thompson-Robinson went down, although the latter’s impact is likely negligible since he spent much of the season playing behind PJ Walker. The market responded by opening Rams odds at -4.5, a shocking 3.5-point move off the look-ahead.
Money has come in strong on the injury-riddled Browns, though. Browns odds have shrunk almost to the key number, as they still have matchup edges up front, pending injury news, and have been priced as the better team basically all season.
With injuries to monitor on both sides, this could still see some significant movement. The Rams relied heavily on their rushing attack in running over the Cardinals, but that won’t likely work against the Browns’ top-rated defense. Keep an eye on Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, who have looked like shells of themselves, with Kupp barely functional on a bum ankle. Meanwhile, Cleveland has superstar EDGE Myles Garrett nursing a shoulder injury in addition to the offensive pieces.
49ers At Eagles
Fascinating line movement here, with Eagles odds opening as favorites at home. After another, in some ways, unimpressive win against Buffalo, the market is all in on 49ers odds. San Francisco just keeps crushing everything in their path. They’ve been steamed all the way to -3 road favorites in some spots, albeit with Eagles odds around -120 on the +3s.
Even with the Eagles having some injuries to monitor — keep an eye on Lane Johnson — it seems unimaginable that the line could climb past the key number. That would be downright disrespectful, so buy on the Eagles now if you were looking for a good Philadelphia price.
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Week 13 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Chiefs At Packers
This is another one where the early underdog has gotten hit, with Packers odds moving off the key number in the look-ahead to consensus +6.5. The Packers have covered the past couple of underdog spreads and did so very convincingly in Week 12 with a road win in Detroit.
There does look to be some appetite for Chiefs odds below -6, as they reopened -5.5 and have been bet up. The key number looks like it’s probably a bridge too far, especially since the Packers figure to possibly get some good injury news this week if Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell return after missing several weeks.
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