NFL Week 12 Key Numbers: 49ers Dip Below -7 At Seahawks
NFL Week 12 odds feature a large selection of games around key numbers, including the NFC West showdown between the 49ers and Seahawks in Seattle. The early market movement has dropped that game below the key number after initially opening right on it. Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
NFL Week 12 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Buccaneers At Colts
Interestingly enough, despite a bye week, the Colts have moved close to the key number against Tampa Bay following the Buccaneers’ loss to the 49ers. Considering that the result basically came in as expected — Tampa Bay lost by 13 after closing right around that number — have Buccaneers odds reached a buy point?
Considering where the line opened, it’s very hard to envision the Bucs reaching the key number here.
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Patriots At Giants
Old Super Bowl rivals collide here, and it seems Tommy DeVito’s acceptable play in Week 11 — he got nearly 10 YPA and didn’t turn the ball over — has moved the market on Giants odds. Initially getting +5.5 across the board in look-ahead lines, some sports betting sites have dropped all the way to an expensive +3.
Anyone interested in Patriots odds should see a buy signal here. However, keep in mind it’s still undetermined who will start at quarterback for New England, so there could be further market movement here depending on what transpires there.
Panthers At Titans
Titans odds initially opened further from the key number here, but another Will Levis stinker has the market interested in the road team. The rookie posted a putrid 18.1 QBR despite efficient rate stats, which says all about when and how those numbers came about.
Could the market continue to hit Panthers odds? It’s perhaps not farfetched to wonder if this could actually hit the key number. Bettors wishing to buy in on the Titans this week can take a wait-and-see approach here, knowing the worst case is they’ll end up laying -4.
Browns At Broncos
Both teams squeaked out wins in Week 11, but it seems the box score’s reflection of Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s play has the market looking to Denver here. Thompson-Robinson managed just 3.8 YPA against a Steelers defense that has bled yards all season, relying on big plays to hold opposing offenses in check.
Therefore, Broncos odds now approach the key number after opening at -1. Playing a clean brand of football has the Broncos riding a winning streak, and that may be enough here if the Browns can’t generate offense. Considering the rough spot in which Thompson-Robinson puts the offense, don’t be shocked if you find a +3 eventually on Browns odds, though it may not last.
Bills At Eagles
Not much movement here from the look-ahead markets, although some influential Bills money has started to creep into the market. BetMGM Sportsbook has dropped Bills odds to a cheap +3. They’ll have the rest advantage, and the Eagles may ease up a tad following a big win.
Surely, this won’t drop below -3 on Eagles odds, so Philly backers can reasonably buy in here if they so choose.
Ravens At Chargers
There’s been some push and pull on this one, with look-ahead lines opening Ravens odds at -3.5 before they settled at -4 upon the wrap of weekend results. Then, early money on Chargers odds quickly corrected back to the original number.
Keep an eye on NFL Week 12 injuries here. The Ravens lost star TE Mark Andrews, likely for the season, and they continue to deal with nagging injuries to key performers on both sides of the ball (Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey). And the Chargers are still working with a threadbare receiving corps, so be sure Keenan Allen escaped from his drop-filled performance in Green Bay with his bum shoulder no worse for the wear.
Bears At Vikings
Justin Fields’ return went about as well as the Bears could have hoped, as he tallied more than 100 rushing yards and kept a clean sheet while moving the rock in the passing department. Still, the market hasn’t budged aside from a rogue FanDuel Sportsbook opening number, which is now in line with the rest of the sportsbooks at Bears odds +3.5.
The Josh Dobbs experience continues to be a roller coaster, but the end result continues to be Vikings covers.
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Week 12 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Packers At Lions
Surprisingly, after the Packers played another solid game while the Lions scuffled and barely beat the Bears at home, this market has also held without significant movement. The market has seemed to have a good handle on Lions odds in recent weeks, hammering them against the Chargers and then going full fade against the Bears.
If that continues to be the case, then perhaps the Lions make sense as a strong leg in teaser bets. They already dominated the Packers on the road, although Green Bay now enters healthier and with revenge — and a push in NFL playoff odds — on their minds.
49ers At Seahawks
This game has seen some interesting line movement early, as a 49ers team that has stormed out of the bye with two covers has been bet against immediately. That came after 49ers odds got a ton of market love, steaming from as low as -3.5 in look-ahead lines to -7.
However, reopening at the key number just resulted in action on Seahawks odds, with a consensus +6.5 settling by Tuesday. Assuredly, plenty of bettors will flock to the 49ers south of the key number, so it will be interesting to see where this ultimately lands, with the Seahawks having one of the most high-leverage games of the year.
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