NFL Week 11 Key Numbers: Eagles Getting +3 At Chiefs
NFL Week 11 odds feature the Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs, taking place in Kansas City. This also happens to land right on the most key number of three, after some early market movement towards the Chiefs. Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move. Many games this week have bigger spreads, so the selection is a bit smaller than normal.
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
NFL Week 11 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Bengals At Ravens
Bengals odds could be found as high as +4 already, but some early action has pushed the number down to three and the hook. The injury situation for Cincinnati doesn’t look good, however. Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson will very likely miss the game. Ja’Marr Chase played in Week 10 but clearly wasn’t himself. Any situation that features Tyler Boyd doubling Chase up in targets is a potentially untenable one for the Bengals.
Any movement here should have a floor of Ravens odds at -3 and a ceiling of -4.
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Chargers At Packers
Look-ahead lines had Chargers odds south of the key number here. However, the Packers fell a tad short of market expectations against the Steelers, and then the Chargers gave the Lions all they could handle. Whether they can do the same on the road, outdoors, possibly with Jaire Alexander and Quay Walker back is another story.
A couple of sports betting sites have Packers odds at an expensive +3.5. With the juice leaning that way pretty much across the market, Packers backers should look to add the hook to their portfolios.
Vikings At Broncos
The market appears a little less impressed by the Vikings than TheLines staff, which has Minnesota ahead of Denver in NFL power rankings. This number matches the look-ahead line, perhaps a little surprising after the Broncos pulled off the upset on Monday Night Football. Perhaps the market is skeptical of buying into a result where Denver went -2.9 in net yards per play.
If Josh Dobbs is going to turn back into a pumpkin, on the road at Mile High against a healthy Denver defense could be the spot, but Vikings odds don’t look like they’ll reach the key number. Keep in mind they may get Justin Jefferson back as well.
Eagles At Chiefs
The highly anticipated Super Bowl rematch — between two of the favorites in this year’s Super Bowl odds — has seen early action on Chiefs odds. Recall that the Eagles closed as very narrow favorites in February, but after a start that has the advanced metrics a little skeptical, it made sense for the Chiefs to open as short home favorites.
With Eagles odds reaching a key number, we’re likely seeing the peak, a la the Bills against the Bengals early in Week 9.
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Week 11 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Titans At Jaguars
Both teams did not show their best selves in Week 10.
The highs of the initial four-touchdown Will Levis experience appear to have worn off, and the market is done with Titans odds after they missed expectations two weeks in a row, despite a rest advantage the second time.
Jacksonville’s struggles are a little easier to explain away since the 49ers look like a Super Bowl juggernaut again. The market nudged this toward the key number, and Titans backers could possibly wait and see a +7 here.
Jets At Bills
America was subjected to both of these teams in primetime and will be so again, although they can at least hope for another classic like the Week 1 tilt.
The market continues to bet against Bills odds, hammering Denver and Cincinnati in consecutive weeks and being proven correct. Will their tremendous EPA and YPP numbers ever manifest in actual football results?
Certainly, nobody appears to be excited about Jets odds, but they, too, arguably deserved a better fate in Week 10, considering their yardage edge.
With the Bills making a mid-season offensive coordinator change to one-time wunderkind Joe Brady, bettors will weigh his potential impact. If there’s any movement towards Buffalo, perhaps the market is valuing some better play calling in Orchard Park.
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