NFL Week 10 Key Numbers: 49ers Laying -3 On The Road To Jaguars; Sharps Fading Bengals?
Week 10 odds feature fewer games around NFL key numbers, but one of the week’s marquee matchups is right on the number with San Francisco -3 in Jacksonville, as both teams come in fresh off the bye. Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind key numbers. NFL key betting numbers are precisely what they sound like. They are numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. They frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
NFL Week 10 Spreads Near Key Number of 3
Panthers At Bears
Early look-ahead lines seemed to be pricing in another Tyson Bagent start here. But, with news that Justin Fields began throwing last week and logged an estimated limited practice on Monday, the market has begun to move. Bagent hasn’t embarrassed himself as far as moving the ball, but he has also put back-to-back turnover-fests on tape now. Thus, Bears odds have crossed the key number at all sports betting sites tracked by TheLines.
Look for a possible move to -4 or even -4.5 if Fields is confirmed.
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Saints At Vikings
This line is holding south of the key number despite the Saints seemingly finding their form. The NFL world and bettors everywhere are once again enamored with Josh Dobbs. The erstwhile Cardinal drew some plays in the dirt and somehow led the Vikings to 21 second-half points and a comeback victory.
Keep an eye on the status of Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. It’s not yet known if the team will activate him from IR. If Jefferson does return, many industry sources have said publicly he’s one of the most important players to the betting line, one of the few non-QBs who makes a material and immediate difference. Vikings odds could shift closer to a pick.
49ers At Jaguars
Both of these teams should enter this game ready to roll, with the 49ers likely getting Deebo Samuel back from injury. Despite the losing skid, keep in mind that two of their losses came in tough road games, and they actually outgained the Bengals in San Francisco. NFL net yards per play numbers still have these teams very far apart.
Of course, this is another tough road game, in opponent and travel terms, if not necessarily venue. Jaguars odds reaching the key number isn’t a major surprise since look-ahead markets had heavy juice on 49ers odds -2.5. Remember also that the 49ers added a major defensive piece in Chase Young at the trade deadline.
Packers At Steelers
Steelers odds got bet out across the key number at much of the market on Monday, but sharp money came back in and resettled the line at -3.
Green Bay wound up with a big margin of victory at 20-3; however, it was a grinder of a game that did not see them open a multiple-score lead until the fourth quarter. This is despite hosting Brett Rypien and a below-average defense.
Bettors could see some back-and-forth tug-of-war here between sharp bettors on Packers odds at +3.5 and Steelers odds at -3. One thing is for sure: given the early movements, sportsbooks will be rooting very hard against a Steelers win by a field goal. If it lands on the key number, they’ll take a bath.
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Week 10 Spreads Near Key Number of 7
Texans At Bengals
Bengals odds opened north of the key number, and then they put together an impressive win on national TV, dismantling Buffalo.
Somehow, though, market exuberance for Houston is even higher. Money has flooded in on Texans odds, moving them to +6.5 at many sportsbooks. But, as with the previous game, there’s an appetite for the favorite at that number, as Bengals -7 remains the consensus. However, given the heavier juice on that side, expect to see plenty of 6.5s at times, so Bengals bettors should remain on the lookout for that.
Broncos At Bills
If the Bengals did not impress the market as much as one may have thought, the Bills appear to have certainly dinged their own standing. Bills odds have shaved down from as high as -9 in look-ahead markets to sitting just over the NFL key number. In fact, some sportsbooks even have additional juice on Broncos odds, meaning Buffalo -7 could be in play.
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