NFL Week 1 Key Numbers: Titans, Commanders Among Teams To Watch
When betting on football, bettors must always keep in mind NFL key numbers. Key numbers are exactly what they sound like: numbers in the spread that often hold the key to winning and losing. That is, they frequently determine wins and losses in spread betting because they represent the most common margins of victory.
Football fans should naturally be aware that three and seven dominate (secondary key numbers include six, four, and 10). Things have changed a bit in recent years thanks to the longer extra point. But, historically, around 24% of games end with margins of three or seven.
Here, we’ll primarily focus on games hovering at or near these key numbers with brief discussions of why or if they might move.
Week 1 features at least seven games where the consensus line sits within a half-point of NFL key numbers. These include marquee matchups like Bills-Jets and Dolphins-Chargers, as well as Titans-Saints and Cardinals-Commanders.
NFL Week 1 Spreads Near Key NUmber Of 3
Falcons At Panthers
This line has not seen much movement, only dipping to -3 in Falcons odds briefly three weeks ago at DraftKings Sportsbook. Bettors wishing to back Atlanta are likely going to have to eat the hook here, while those who like the points with the Panthers probably don’t have to worry about +3 popping as the consensus line any time soon.
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Bengals At Browns
While there has been some Browns optimism out there this offseason, including from this author, market sentiment seems to be ever more behind the Bengals as Week 1 kickoffs draw closer. That probably stems from the Joe Burrow injury earlier this offseason.
It’s hard to imagine a Browns +3 appearing, but Browns believers may be best served waiting here.
Titans At Saints
The Saints have spent some time at -3.5 this offseason, creating a chunk of extra value on the Titans side since that’s the most important half point in football. Indeed, as of Wednesday afternoon, while Saints -3 remains the consensus number across the board, most of the sportsbooks have juiced that side closer to -120. Thus, Titans backers may reasonably hope to see a +3.5 by the week’s end.
49ers At Steelers
This one probably doesn’t merit too much mention as the Steelers are beginning to shorten across the odds board. The idea of Steelers +3 appearing at this point seems farfetched.
Dolphins At Chargers
Consensus -3 has remained the line pretty much all offseason here, and there’s little reason to expect a move with both teams loaded and healthy. Enough optimism exists around both teams, most likely, to keep this one at Chargers -3. If a Dolphins +3.5 were to appear, expect it to receive action accordingly.
Cowboys At Giants
Perhaps the most interesting game in terms of current line value out there. Just within the past week, Sunday Night Football odds have moved 13 times on DK Sportsbook, bouncing between Cowboys -3.5 and Cowboys -3. Enough optimism seems to exist around the Cowboys among sharp bettors — delineated here on our own Beat The Closing Number show — that if you are a Giants backer and you don’t see a +3.5 at your sportsbook of choice, you’re probably good to wait. One should pop at some point.
Bills At Jets
Monday Night Football odds have been on the move toward Buffalo. Within the past couple of weeks on DK Sportsbook, the line has crept from Bills -1.5 to Bills -2.5. Could a Jets +3 pop? While unlikely, it doesn’t seem impossible. Though the Jets have been a public darling in the offseason, many sharp bettors have expressed support for the Bills in this spot.
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NFL Week 1 Spreads Near Key Number 7
Cardinals At Commanders
Universal sentiment among bettors is hard to find. After all, part of what makes betting markets so great is that there are nearly always tons of bettors on both sides of a line, and that push and pull ultimately finds an equilibrium. But if such a thing does exist among NFL bettors in 2023, it’s probably a pessimism around Arizona Cardinals odds.
To wit, one could find Commanders odds as low as -5.5 a couple of weeks back on DK Sportsbook. They’re now laying the full -7, and given the rush to fade the perceived tanking Cardinals, we couldn’t rule out a -7.5 at some point here.
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