After NFL Free Agency, Notable Super Bowl & Division Odds Movement & Most-Bet Teams

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
nfl odds free agency 2024

The dust has mostly settled on a busy, if not lackluster, NFL free agency period. The NFL Draft is certain to bring a few moves via trades, but the bulk of team reshuffling is in the rearview mirror. With Russell Wilson (and Justin Fields) off to Pittsburgh and Kirk Cousins to Atlanta, what NFL teams saw the biggest movement in their Super Bowl 59 and Division odds? Let’s take a look at the biggest movers and what teams are the most bet to win the Super Bowl and Divisions at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Find a complete rundown of Super Bowl odds here and follow along with TheLines for year-round NFL betting coverage.

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NFL Odds Movers: Super Bowl 59

The odds listed below are pulled from BetMGM Sportsbook and are accurate as of March 25.

TeamOdds pre-Mar. 11Current Odds
Texans+2500+2000
Falcons+5000+3000
Steelers+8000+5000
Vikings+4000+8000

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons were the first of the teams to see movement in their Super Bowl odds. Former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins was heavily rumored to be headed to Atlanta – his rumored purchasing of a home predated the tampering period by a week – and Falcons odds began dipping quickly. By the time the news broke that Cousins would sign with the Falcons, their odds already settled into place.

Atlanta stood as a +5000 longshot to win Super Bowl LIX before March 11 (~2% implied win rate). That number dropped to +3000 at BetMGM (3.2%). Modest, but a notable move in a mature and popular market. As of March 25, the Falcons commanded 3.7% of all Super Bowl bets at BetMGM, the ninth-most among NFL teams.

The Falcons also invested in a couple more weapons, including return specialist Ray Ray McCloud and receiver Rondale Moore. Cousins, however, was the driving catalyst behind the move.

  • Current best Super Bowl 2025 odds: Falcons

Pittsburgh Steelers

While Atlanta’s move was based on adding a quarterback with plenty of juice left in the tank, Pittsburgh’s move was almost purely market-driven. The Steelers added ex-Bronco Russell Wilson and traded for Bears QB Justin Fields. Wilson’s move was a bit more choreographed, but landing Fields was a surprise to many. As a result, Steelers odds rose from +8000 (1.2%) to +5000. Again, a modest move.

What’s more notable, however, is the share the Steelers command in the market. Over 11% of all bets at BetMGM and over 15% of the total handle to win the Super Bowl are on Pittsburgh. That ticket share is the second-highest in the NFL (behind the Ravens) and the handle share is the single most.

The Falcons have an opportunity to play in the weak NFC South. The Steelers have a much tougher test in the AFC North. That less-than-1% move in their breakeven percentage despite commanding a heavy market share implies the market-driven nature to the move as opposed to a real, measurable increase in the Steelers’ expected Super Bowl win rate.

  • Current best Super Bowl 2025 odds: Steelers

Minnesota Vikings

Going from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold has expected consequences. Vikings odds to win the Super Bowl saw the most lengthening, from +4000 (~2.4%) to +8000, after losing Cousins to Atlanta. The only QB Minnesota added in free agency was Darnold. That sent J.J. McCarthy’s draft odds in flux, with the Vikings now being a favorite to land the Michigan QB in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Should the Vikings draft a prolific QB, their odds may again be on the move.

Minnesota added running back Aaron Jones, corner Shaquill Griffin, and guard Dan Feeney in free agency.

  • Current best Super Bowl 2025 odds: Vikings

NFL Odds: Most-Bet Super Bowl Teams

As mentioned, nobody commands more Super Bowl futures handle at BetMGM than the Steelers (15.1%). Behind Pittsburgh are the two-time reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs (12.5%) and upstart Houston Texans (10.7%).

Few impact players depart the Chiefs (why would you?) and they’ll always be heavily bet so long as Patrick Mahomes wears red. The Texans showed plenty of promise, even throttling the Browns in the AFC Wild Card, and have one of the most exciting young QBs on their roster in C.J. Stroud. Houston did make some savvy moves in free agency, most notably edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry, and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. In total, the Texans sunk $96.6M into new defensive additions via free agency.

Ticket share (or bet share) tells a different story. The most-bet teams to win the 2025 Super Bowl include the Baltimore Ravens (13.7%), the aforementioned Steelers (11.2%), and Philadelphia Eagles (10.1%). None of the three teams saw all that much movement in their futures odds.

Baltimore and Philadelphia both added high-profile running backs in Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, respectively. While flashy by name – and certainly popular in fantasy football circles – those moves proved to be rather inconsequential in the eyes of oddsmakers.

NFL Division Odds Movement: To Win

The Steelers didn’t just take plenty of action to win the Super Bowl. They’re also a popular bet when it comes to conference and division futures. Pittsburgh commands the most number of bets to win the AFC (18.3%). And despite playing in one of the NFL’s toughest divisions, the Steelers are heavily bet to win the AFC North. A whopping 68% of bets and 54% of the money lands on the Steelers, both the most among the four teams.

The Eagles are the most-bet team to win the NFC, with nearly a fourth of all bets landing on Philly (24.6%). Despite the heavy backing, the Eagles’ expected win rate for the NFC rose from 11.8% to just 12.5%. In the NFC East, their odds remained unchanged despite 61% of the money being on them to win the division.

Following their jump in Super Bowl odds, the Falcons also saw significant backing and movement in their NFC South odds. After taking 63% of the bets and 84% of the money, the Falcons’ NFC South odds shortened from +140 to -110 – an 11% jump in expected win rate. Once again, the NFC South is projected to be one of the league’s weakest. None of the other three remaining teams are priced inside the top 20 to win Super Bowl LIX.

NFL Betting: Odds To Win Super Bowl 59

Compare odds for the 2025 Super Bowl from the best NFL betting sites below. Click on odds anywhere to place a bet.

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