Tom Brady’s decision to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL free agency has greatly increased the hype around the Bucs heading toward the 2020 NFL season. FanDuel Sportsbook has followed suit and released a wide array of betting odds and lines for the Buccaneers’ 2020 campaign.
While the NFL schedule isn’t expected to be released until around May 9, FanDuel has already listed spreads and moneylines against Tampa Bay’s 2020 opponents. Below, we take a look at the Buccaneers’ 2020 game odds and lines, along with their futures odds to win the NFC South, the NFC, and Super Bowl LV.
*The Buccaneers’ road game against the Las Vegas Raiders wasn’t posted as of Friday, April 3.
Buccaneers 2020 game spreads and moneylines
|vs. Green Bay||-2.5||-152|
|vs. Kansas City||+2.5||+126|
|vs. LA Chargers||-4.5||-200|
|vs. LA Rams||-3.5||-172|
|vs. New Orleans||-1||-108|
|at NY Giants||-3.5||-194|
|at New Orleans||+5.5||+190|
|at Las Vegas||TBD||TBD|
Odds subject to change. Visit FanDuel Sportsbook for live odds.
The addition of Brady has vastly skewed the lines in favor of a team that went 7-9 and finished third in the NFC South last season. Tampa Bay is favored against every opponent except in a home game against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and a road contest against the division rival New Orleans Saints. The Bucs are favored in both games against both the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers, despite splitting the season series against the two division rivals in 2019.
Tampa Bay hasn’t finished at or above .500 since going 9-7 in 2016. It was the Bucs’ only winning season since 2010, and they have never gone 14-2, or 13-3, since entering the league in 1976.
Tampa’s favored in seven of eight home games despite going just 2-6 as the home team last year; those two victories came against the Arizona Cardinals (30-27) and Indianapolis Colts (38-35). A technical home loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 6 was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England. The Bucs went 5-3 on the road in 2019 and they’re favored in six of their seven listed road contests in 2020.
The Buccaneers went 3-6 in games decided by a single possession last season and 4-3 in games decided by more than one score. The early expectation has Brady helping the Bucs win a few more tight games in 2020 than the turnover-prone Jameis Winston led them to in 2019. Tampa Bay will play five games against teams that qualified for the 2019 playoffs, and it’s favored to go 3-2 in those matchups.
The Brady effect is dramatic and oddsmakers are clearly baiting overly-ambitious and playoff-hungry fans. The defense is still a weakness of the Buccaneers heading into the 2020 NFL Draft and it’s unknown whether Brady will be able to take proper advantage of top-tier receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as he enters his age-43 season on the heels of one of his worst statistical campaigns to date. What’s likely to be an abbreviated offseason program as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic will also take a toll on Brady and other free-agent additions around the league in their first seasons with new teams.
Buccaneers 2020 win total
The Buccaneers’ 2020 win total is set at an even 9 games. The Over is the favorite at -115 vs. -105 for the Under. Based on the above single-game lines which have the Bucs favored in 13 of 15 contests, the Over is seemingly an incredible bargain.
This line also reflects some of the misdirection in the above lines, as a two- or three-win improvement on 2019 is far more likely. You could consider taking the OVER and bank on a push as the worst-case result. This is a better wager than the -154 odds for the Buccaneers to make the playoffs in the expanded 14-team format.
Buccaneers 2020 division odds
The Bucs have the second-best odds to win the NFC South at +175. They trail the defending champion Saints (-110) but lead the Falcons (+500) and Panthers (+1100) by considerable margins. They haven’t won the division since doing so with a 9-7 record in 2007.
The Saints are deservedly still the heavy favorites and there’s much better value on the Falcons with a 5-1 payoff. The NFC South projects to be one of the NFL’s toughest divisions in 2020 led by three top-tier quarterbacks.
Buccaneers 2020 conference odds
Only the defending champion San Francisco 49ers (+480) and Saints (+700) have lower odds than the Bucs’ +800 to win the NFC Championship Game and make it to Super Bowl LV. This may be the line most impacted by Brady’s arrival in Tampa Bay and there is zero value in what should still be viewed as a dark horse team.
Ten NFC teams finished with a better record than the Bucs in 2019. Additionally, only the NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles were the only NFC playoff team with nine or fewer wins. With the Bucs’ 2020 win total set at just nine, betting them to miss the playoffs at +126 might be a better play than backing them to win the conference.
Buccaneers Super Bowl 55 odds
The addition of TB12 vaulted the Buccaneers to the fifth-best odds to win Super Bowl LV at +1700. Only the Chiefs (+650), Baltimore Ravens (+700), 49ers (+900) and Saints (+1300) are more heavily favored.
The Bucs are hosting Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium, where they’ll be looking to become the first NFL team to play in a Super Bowl in its home stadium. It’s another added amount of pressure on top of Brady’s arrival which will only build if the season plays out as the oddsmakers and early bettors are expecting.