While bettors hone in on NBA playoffs wagers, including Lakers vs. Timberwolves odds, the 2025 NFL Draft is only two days away. Let's break down the market, specifically longshot bets among potential top-10 picks, with NFL draft odds constantly shifting over the next 48 hours. An intriguing wager revolves around defensive tackle Mason Graham landing outside the top-five picks.
For much of April, Graham was pinned in the -120 to -160 range to go fifth overall, in all likelihood to the Jaguars. On Monday, his odds moved in the other direction, as ESPN's Adam Schefter stated that general manager James Gladstone "might not be that predictable." In fact, one league executive told Schefter, "Jacksonville is a wild card — watch."
Suppose the Jaguars select Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty or Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who has drawn comparisons to Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans. Don't forget that Jacksonville's first-year head coach, Liam Coen, just departed Tampa Bay.
In this scenario, I believe there's better than a 13.3% chance that Graham will hear his name called with the next pick, which the market doesn't imply with these odds.
In Graham, the Raiders would tack on another piece to a fairly stout defensive front led by Mason Crosby. Although Las Vegas must refine many personnel groups, it can't stay stagnant regarding its pass-rush to compete in the AFC West.
Assuming the Saints hang onto their top-10 pick, the consensus is that they will draft a quarterback. While I've monitored a potential wager on signal-caller Jaxson Dart, who has been linked to New Orleans, there's a possibility that New Orleans takes the best player available in this spot and trades up for a QB the next time around.
In all probability, the Penn State tight end fits the mold of BPA. Not only is Warren the best prospect at his position, but he also represents a true three-down player with the potential to develop into a dominant run blocker.
Warren would be a great building block in Kellen Moore's modified West Coast offense. That said, when betting on longshots, remember they are precisely that. Therefore, don't go crazy with your bankroll on these wagers.
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