Eli’s NFL Draft Bets: Why I’m Wagering On Texas DL Byron Murphy Top-10 Odds

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NFL Draft Odds

Unlike most markets at sports betting sites, the NFL draft offers a unique route to bet on something nearly unfeasible for sportsbooks to model. When NFL draft odds shift, they tread on the heels of consensus mock drafts and news. These odds are nowhere near as efficient as your standard NFL or NBA line. Thus, they’re often more valuable than your average wager. Let’s break down my first bet on the board.

Click anywhere below to wager on 2024 NFL Draft odds. These prices are the best available in your state.

NFL draft odds: top-10 pick

Who’s Rising In Mock Drafts?

After flying under the radar for much of the pre-draft process, Texas product Byron Murphy is projected as a top-10 pick. Both the Falcons (No. 8) and Bears (No. 9) are firmly in the mix for his services. Overnight, Murphy’s top-10 odds shrunk from +250 to an implied probability of around 52.3% as of this publishing.

Murphy boasts formidable power, positioning him to compile tackles behind the line of scrimmage. He’s also an adept pass rusher, which isn’t necessarily the norm for a prototypical nose tackle. During the 2023 season, he finished with the highest pressure rate at his position by a wide margin while ranking third in time to pressure.

Moreover, Murphy’s efficiency has stood out among the top collegiate defensive tackles in recent years, with his pass rush win rate easily surpassing that of Jalen Carter, Michael Hall Jr., Keeanu Benton, and Calijah Kancey. Carter and Kancey were each first-round picks.

The more people I talk to in the league, the more I get the sense that … if there’s going to be a surprise in the top 10, it’s going to be Byron Murphy,” NFL draft analyst Todd McShay said on the Pardon My Take podcast. “Byron — with his quickness and power — and just the way he penetrates and disrupts, I think he’s going to be a major impact player.”

Atlanta needs a pure edge rusher more than Chicago, yet Murphy’s prowess for wreaking havoc in opposing backfields makes him a surefire fit. In particular, Raheem Morris’ scheme has centered around a dominant 3-technique. Murphy is built similarly to Aaron Donald, whom Morris coached during their Rams tenure.

Betting On NFL Draft Odds

Remember to check which states allow NFL draft betting before sifting through Murphy’s NFL draft odds and other betting markets you fancy. In Nevada, for instance, NFL draft wagering is permitted, but all markets close 24 hours before the festivities kick off on Thursday, April 25 at 8 p.m. EST. Other states keep their markets up until the draft kicks off. Some operators, like DraftKings Sportsbook, grant live betting on NFL draft props.

Murphy’s odds of becoming the first defensive player off the board are alluring. They’ve dipped from 14-1 to the +200 territory in the last week. However, I’d rather play it safer with most of my stake. Hence, I bet on Murphy to go inside the top 10 at -105, available at Caesars or DraftKings Sportsbook.

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