The 2022 NFL Draft is right on the doorstep as we enter Draft Week. With plenty of rumors and reports flooding in, there’s been a ton of NFL Draft odds movement over the weekend. As the first round draws nearer, prices will continue to be in flux. Which players saw the biggest jump in odds over the weekend? What caused such movement?
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NFL Draft Odds Movement
|Player||Position||Odds (Apr. 22)||Odds (Apr. 26)|
|Derek Stingley Jr.||CB||+340||+175|
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Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Odds to be drafted first overall (DraftKings Sportsbook): +1600 to +500
While all of the talk was on Georgia’s Travon Walker overtaking the number-one spot on odds boards for the first overall pick, Ekwonu saw the most drastic change in odds nearly overnight. Going into the weekend, Ekwonu was priced at +1600 to be first off the board. Those odds in themselves were already much lower than his price for most of the offseason.
Come Monday morning, and Ekwonu’s odds had shortened drastically to +600 and the steam continued to +400 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The cause? Head coach Doug Pederson reportedly wants Ekwonu. The report, courtesy of Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network, owner Shad Kahn favors Aidan Hutchinson while GM Trent Baalke wants Walker. Ultimately, Baalke is the one who makes the call.
However, NBC’s Peter King reported that he expects a surprise out of Jacksonville.
Typical draft steam? Unlikely, considering no team is drafting ahead of the Jags. But King’s report and the poorly-kept secret about division within the front office are certainly sending prices in flux.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Odds to be first cornerback drafted (FanDuel Sportsbook): +340 to +175
All offseason long– and even for much of the 2021 college football season– Derek Stingley’s draft stock has been on a rollercoaster. He was once thought to be a top-four lock, commonly attributed to the Texans and three and Jets at four. Then, injury began to cause his slide. Late reports came flooding in that he’s drawing serious interest from the Seahawks at nine.
Cincinnati’s Ahmad Gardner is a fairly consensus CB1 in the draft, but his stranglehold on the market is slipping. At BetMGM, you can still find the unadjusted numbers (as of Tuesday morning), with Gardner a -500 favorite to be the first one off the board.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, Stingley’s odds to be the first corner off the board Thursday slashed from +340 (22.5% implied probability) to +175 (36.4%). His best price still exists at BetMGM at +250.
Stingley’s late rise has gone so far that he’s taken over the driver’s seat late Tuesday as the favorite to be picked third overall (+240).
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
Odds to be first receiver drafted (DraftKings Sportsbook): +300 to +200
The biggest question surrounding Williams is whether or not a team is willing to draft him after tearing his ACL in the National Championship Game. He’s not expected to be available for the start of the season, but reports say he’s “ahead of schedule.”
While the price shift in itself is pretty significant, Williams also jumped USC’s Drake London for second on the board of first receivers taken.
- Related: First Round NFL Mock Draft Based On Betting Odds
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Odds to be first offensive lineman drafted (DraftKings Sportsbook): +500 to +300
When it comes to the first overall pick in the draft, the second, etc., Cross’ odds had a minor shift. In the grand scope, it’s background noise compared to the price change for Ekwonu and Walker. However, what is notable, is Cross is now priced evenly with Alabama’s Evan Neal in multiple categories:
- First offensive lineman taken (both +300)
- Third overall pick (both +1000)
- Fifth overall pick (Cross leads Neal +250 to +380, respectively)
Cross and Neal are both tied for the second offensive lineman taken, which Cross previously was a longshot for, at +110 (47.6% implied probability each). The shift could come in response to Peter King’s latest mock draft (which: take with a grain of salt, there’s a lot of speculation and zigging while everyone else is zagging here). However, it could also be in response to the Carolina Panthers being tied to Cross at six. With players with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Ahmad Gardner skyrocketing up mock drafts, this could suggest a reality which both Cross and Neal are available at six.
Would the Panthers pass on Neal for Charles Cross? The odds are indicating it’s not impossible.
Quay Walker, LB, Georgia
Odds to be first linebacker drafted (DraftKings Sportsbook): +1000 to +175
For the entire draft cycle, there was a two-man race between Utah’s Devin Lloyd and Georgia’ Nakobe Dean to be the first linebacker off the board. Lloyd overtook the board in March and jumped to as long as a -800 (!!!) favorite.
Don’t look in your rearview now, Mr. Lloyd, but there’s a new contender. It’s not the Georgia linebacker you’re thinking of and it’s the other Walker from Georgia. According to ESPN’s Matt Miller, Quay Walker “will not get past New England.” That kind of statement sliced his price in fractions. The Patriots are the most likely team to draft a linebacker in this year’s draft and, if it’s not Lloyd like we all assumed, then it’s Quay Walker.
Chances are another backer won’t get to go before New England at 21, making him a new strong candidate for LB1.