JJ McCarthy NFL Draft: Rumors & Mock Drafts Project Where Michigan QB Odds Might Cash
We’re a month out from the NFL Draft and that means it’s peak lying season. NFL teams intentionally release smokescreens through media pressers and quotes to protect their best interests. It’s lying season. Lately, the NFL Draft rumor mill has been abuzz about Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy. Once projected to be a fringe-first round selection, McCarthy’s projected draft stock skyrocketed, making him one of the most interesting prospects to monitor this April. But do rumors surrounding him hold any water?
Let’s dive into NFL Draft odds and see what the buzz is all about. A reminder when betting on the draft: personal evaluations – hell, even some professional evaluations – don’t matter. Regardless of where 31 franchises value a player, it just takes one front office to love a prospect to send him off the board.
Where Will JJ McCarthy Be Taken In The 2024 NFL Draft?
According to Grinding the Mocks, McCarthy was projected as a mid-first-round selection during the 2023 college football season. This is an average taken from across multiple industry mocks, with some placing McCarthy at the end of the first round and some projecting him inside the top 10.
The latest NFL mock draft by Daniel Jeremiah shows the Minnesota Vikings trading up to the No. 4 overall pick to grab McCarthy. The Vikings are a popular choice when mocking the Michigan QB. DraftKings Sportsbook lines Minnesota as the -130 odds-on favorite to land him, followed by the Giants (+250) and Broncos (+425). New York selects sixth overall and Denver, 12th. Notably, the Broncos cut Russell Wilson and don’t currently roster a clear answer at QB.
Multiple sources including ESPN’s Matt Miller and Field Yates link the Cardinals as a trade-down candidate, likely with a QB-hungry team. Last year, Arizona traded back with the Texans from No. 3 to No. 6 and selected Paris Johnson Jr. According to Diana Russini of The Athletic, there’s a leaguewide belief that the Cardinals will trade back in this year’s draft.
Dane Brugler of The Athletic had a similar projection to DJ. Brugler’s latest mock draft (pre-free agency) projected Minnesota to trade with the Titans at No. 7 overall and select McCarthy there. This mock was released at the beginning of March ahead of Russini’s report.
Can The Vikings Trade Up For McCarthy?
Amid the blitz of NFL free agency news, the Vikings packaged multiple picks together to trade for a second first-round draft pick. They sent two second-round picks (2024, 2025) and more in the later rounds to Houston and moved up to No. 23. Minnesota already had the No. 11 pick, as well. Many saw this as positioning for the Vikings to package the two firsts and move up into the top six.
According to Tankathon, the Vikings have the most valuable set of draft picks among QB-needy teams outside the top four overall picks. That kind of buying power makes them perhaps the best-positioned team to trade up for a QB (McCarthy or otherwise).
JJ McCarthy NFL Draft Odds
Given the current NFL Draft order, Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is still the odds-on favorite (-165) to go No. 4 overall. However, McCarthy has the second-shortest odds at that slot (+240).
Odds to go No. 5 or No. 6 overall fall to +430 and +450, respectively. That falloff, slight though it may be, aligns with Miller’s report that at least one NFL GM views him as a top-six selection this year.
Keep an eye on sportsbooks as they release more NFL Draft markets closer to the start of Round 1. Particularly, keep an eye out for individual player draft position over/unders. McCarthy will almost certainly be lined at 4.5 with heavy juice to the under.
Could Another Team Draft McCarthy?
NFL Draft odds are only as accurate as the information behind them. Currently, almost all signs point to the Vikings being the most invested and best positioned to trade up and grab McCarthy. But another team admired him this week: the Las Vegas Raiders.
Priced at +1400 at DraftKings Sportsbook to land McCarthy, new head coach Antonio Pierce didn’t mince his words when it came to the Michigan QB:
“McCarthy… you’re talking about a national champ, a winner. So, I don’t know how he’s not in the top three if you want to be honest,” Pierce said in an interview posted by Ari Meirov on Monday.
The Raiders currently have an ambiguous QB situation led by Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. However, at No. 13 overall, Las Vegas would almost certainly need to trade up or risk missing out. Tankathon ranks the Raiders’ pick haul 15th in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean Vegas can’t (or won’t) package future firsts together to get its guy.
The 2024 NFL Draft begins Thursday, April 25, at 8:00 p.m. ET. Detroit hosts the event, making McCarthy’s eventual selection that much more anticipated.
Best of luck if you are betting JJ McCarthy NFL Draft odds or other props.
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