In a bombshell Friday afternoon news dump, the Carolina Panthers landed the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft from the Chicago Bears. With it came major movement in NFL Draft odds markets, notably for the first overall pick. Alabama star Bryce Young was the heavy odds-on favorite to be the first pick, but Ohio State QB CJ Stroud rocketed up odds tables immediately following the trade.
So, who will it be? Is there now value in Young or any of the other options? Stay up to date with TheLines coverage of NFL Draft odds.
NFL Draft Odds: CJ Stroud Favored To Go No. 1
On March 8, I did a dive into Stroud’s Draft odds and whether or not there was any value in betting him first overall. At the time, he was listed as highly as +330 at DraftKings Sportsbook, a number that’s since dropped all the way down to -350. In terms of implied probability, Stroud’s odds to be picked first jumped from 22.3% up to 77.8%.
Mike Sando of The Athletic reported earlier that an unnamed NFL GM believed the Bears were more willing to trade the first pick to Carolina, a sentiment that came to reality Friday. The Colts were a popular pick to trade up to first.
Throughout the Draft cycle, the Panthers were tied to Stroud and Florida QB Anthony Richardson. The market buys into that, slashing Stroud’s prices. The two-time Heisman finalist impressed at the NFL Combine. He doesn’t carry size concerns like Young and is a more polished passer than Richardson. Though the latter broke Combine QB records, the general sentiment coming away was that Stroud was the best QB in this class.
NFL insider Dov Kleiman reported shortly after the trade that league sources believe the move was for Stroud. Initially, Stroud’s odds only dropped to -115. Following the report, the odds hit -275 and eventually -350. Richardson’s odds dropped from +600 to +350, in line with Young.
Bears Trade No. 1 Pick To Panthers
The compensation for the first overall pick was hefty. In exchange for it, the Panthers sent the Bears:
- No. 9 pick
- No. 61 pick
- 2024 first rounder
- 2025 second rounder
- WR DJ Moore
While age and the prospect of having unlimited options at No. 1 is enticing, the package sent to the Bears is likely greater than what would be required to sign NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. Jackson’s non-exclusive franchise tag requires a signing team to send two first round picks to the Ravens. Obviously, Jackson would also likely require at least $200 million.
The trade sends Chicago a sorely-needed top receiver and Carolina, presumably, a potential franchise quarterback.
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