NFL Draft Betting: Jayden Daniels With Early Helium?
While NFL bettors rightfully have their focus on NFL playoff odds, mock draft season has begun to move into full swing. High-profile draft pundits Mel Kiper Jr. (ESPN) and Daniel Jeremiah (NFL.com) have released their first mock drafts for 2024’s class. NFL draft betting always reflects these mock drafts at some level, as they’re often informed by not only the pundit’s opinion but also industry scuttlebutt. Highly placed sources at NFL teams who make actual drafting decisions share their thoughts and opinions with Kiper and Jeremiah, which shapes their mock drafts.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top five in each of their early mocks and where the current NFL draft betting odds stand for the No. 1 overall pick. More NFL draft betting markets will appear down the line. For now, the No. 1 pick is the main one of interest.
NFL Draft Odds Vs. Early Mocks
| Player | Jeremiah Pick (Team) | Kiper Pick (Team) | No. 1 Pick Odds (Sportsbook Source) |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Williams | 1 (Bears) | 1 (Bears) | -900 (DraftKings Sportsbook) |
| D. Maye | 2 (Commanders) | 3 (Patriots) | +750 (DraftKings Sportsbook) |
| J. Daniels | 3 (Patriots) | 2 (Commanders) | +4000 (FanDuel Sportsbook) |
| M. Harrison Jr. | 4 (Cardinals) | 4 (Cardinals) | +1600 (FanDuel Sportsbook) |
| R. Odunze | 5 (Chargers) | 9 (Bears) | OTB |
| B. Bowers | 15 (Colts) | 5 (Chargers) | +25000 (DraftKings Sportsbook) |
Two big items of interest stand out with early NFL draft betting odds.
The first is the steam behind Caleb Williams at the top of the board. Williams had a consensus price around -500 a few weeks ago and was as long as -320 at one point after a final season at USC that was quite a bit rockier than his Heisman campaign the year prior.
While the defense was bad enough to get people fired, Williams didn’t cover himself in glory when facing defenses that had a pulse. He had high-profile flops against Utah, Notre Dame, and Oregon as USC lost each game by multiple scores.
Market sentiment moved against Williams as the season closed, considering Drake Maye to have a real shot at overtaking him.
That appears to have shifted. NFL draft betting odds once again say he’s close to a lock to go No. 1 to the Bears. Most pundits expect Chicago to move on from Justin Fields and reset the franchise around Williams and whomever they can grab at No. 9 in the draft.
Momentum Behind Jayden Daniels?
Kiper raised some eyebrows by going with Daniels No. 2 overall to the Commanders, contrary to the longtime consensus that Williams and Maye would be the top two picks. He admitted that it’s tight, however, and he hinted that he has little intel on how the new Washington brain trust is thinking.
“The reality, though, is the Commanders just hired their new general manager and still don’t have a coach, so there’s a lot to figure out about which direction they go,” Kiper wrote.
Daniels, of course, burst onto the national consciousness with an incredible statistical performance that netted him the Heisman trophy. Just two years prior, he had wrapped up a “junior” season (only appearing in four games as a sophomore allowed him to roll over that eligibility) to forget with a 10-10 TD-INT ratio at Arizona State. Much like Joe Burrow before him, he transferred to LSU, put in one solid season, and then tore the SEC to shreds in his final go.
Daniels appears to be picking up steam, and the market had mostly adjusted. Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook have considerably shortened their odds on Daniels, but a 40-1 number remains posted at FanDuel. That likely won’t last long before correcting to market consensus.
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