After the 2025 NFL draft ended on Saturday, there's no better time to investigate who might top the board next year. While Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning has only tallied two collegiate starts, he's favored to go No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft at DraftKings Sportsbook. What does history tell us about this market? Let's examine the odds for Arch Manning and beyond.
With Manning lined at +200 via DraftKings to go first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, there's a 33.3% implied probability that he will hear his name called with the top selection. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is behind Manning at +225 via DraftKings, followed by LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier at +450 via DraftKings.
There’s a noticeable gap in the market after these three signal-callers. That said, the opening prices for the 2025 NFL Draft prove that the odds for Arch Manning aren't necessarily indicative of what's to come.
Remember that then-Georgia quarterback Carson Beck was initially favored in last year's market. After a disappointing season with the Bulldogs, Beck transferred to Miami and is +3000 via DraftKings among No. 1 pick odds in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Shedeur Sanders, whose NFL draft odds took a significant nosedive before sliding to the Browns in the fifth round, was behind Beck at this point last year.
Although the Saints drafted Louisville product Tyler Shough in the second round on Friday, they're expected to nab the top pick in next year's draft. New Orleans hasn't used a first-round pick on a QB since Archie Manning, Arch's grandfather, in 1971.
Another potential storyline in this scenario is Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, the father of the aforementioned LSU signal-caller.
How Will Manning Fare As Texas' Starter?
For one, Manning is a more heralded prospect than Beck. When filling in for an injured Quinn Ewers last season, he led Texas to two wins. His most notable performance came against Mississippi State, completing 83.9% of his passes for 325 yards and two scores. Overall, Manning tallied a 67.9% completion rate with nine touchdowns through the air, two interceptions, and four scores on the ground.
Manning is also favored to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy at some shops. You can find the odds for Arch Manning and the rest of the field below.
Elsewhere, Texas has the second-best odds of winning the national title behind defending champ Ohio State. The Longhorns' best price is currently .
Early on, Manning's skill set must elevate his teammates. Texas returns 29% of its year-over-year offensive production, ranking 126th nationally. He'll open the season against the Buckeyes in Columbus. Months away from this highly anticipated matchup, the Longhorns are underdogs.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA) 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in DC, Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.
Whatever the moment. It's Never Ordinary at bet365. That's why if you sign up now you will receive $200 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose when you bet $5! Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&CS, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA.
21+ New users only. Must register using eligible promo code. First bet after registration must qualify. Max. Bonus Bet: $1,000. Bonus Bet expires 14 days after receipt. Void where prohibited. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537)
The promotion is available for all new players on Hard Rock Bet. An initial deposit is required, and the players first cash bet must be at least $5 to qualify. Additionally, the qualifying wager must win to receive the $150 in Bonus Bets. To be eligible, the Player must be at least 21 years old, physically located in a Eligible Jurisdiction: AZ, IL, IN, NJ, OH, TN, or VA, and not on any exclusionary lists in any Eligible Jurisdiction. Excluded patrons are prohibited from participating in Promotions. To be eligible all personal and contact data associated to your account must be verifiable. | T&C apply | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ (18+ DC, KY and present in select states for KS in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino). First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets which expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.
6
New Customers: Bet $5+ and get $300 in Bonus Bets if it wins!
21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). Pass-thru of per wager tax may apply in IL. 1 per new customer. Must register new account to receive reward Token. Must select Token BEFORE placing min. $5 bet to receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins. Min. -500 odds req. Token and Bonus Bets are single-use and non-withdrawable. Token expires 2/1/26. Bonus Bets expire in 7 days (168 hours). Stake removed from payout. Terms: sportsbook.draftkings.com/promos. Ends 1/25/26 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-522-4700, Home (MD), (800)-327-5050 or MA Gambling Helpline (MA), Call (877)8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), or Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), (888) 789-7777 or CONNECTICUT COUNCIL – ON PROBLEM GAMBLING (CT), or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), If gambling is more than a game, free help is available . . . - NCDHHS Problem Gambling (NC). New customers in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, MO, NC, NJ, NY, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, or WY. Must opt-in and wager $10+ cash on any market with odds of -500 or longer to receive $100 in FanCash each day for your first 3 days (issued when qualifying wager settles). Your 3 days begin the day you establish your account. FanCash rewards expire at 11:59 p.m. ET 7 days from issuance. Terms, including FanCash terms, apply - see Fanatics Sportsbook app.
