2026 NFL Draft Betting Picks: Arch Manning Favored Among No. 1 Pick Odds

After the 2025 NFL draft ended on Saturday, there's no better time to investigate who might top the board next year. While Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning has only tallied two collegiate starts, he's favored to go No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft at DraftKings Sportsbook. What does history tell us about this market? Let's examine the odds for Arch Manning and beyond.

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2026 NFL draft odds betting: arch manning favored for no. 1 pick

Is History On Manning's Side?

With Manning lined at +200 via DraftKings to go first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft, there's a 33.3% implied probability that he will hear his name called with the top selection. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is behind Manning at +225 via DraftKings, followed by LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier at +450 via DraftKings. 

There’s a noticeable gap in the market after these three signal-callers. That said, the opening prices for the 2025 NFL Draft prove that the odds for Arch Manning aren't necessarily indicative of what's to come.

Remember that then-Georgia quarterback Carson Beck was initially favored in last year's market. After a disappointing season with the Bulldogs, Beck transferred to Miami and is +3000 via DraftKings among No. 1 pick odds in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Shedeur Sanders, whose NFL draft odds took a significant nosedive before sliding to the Browns in the fifth round, was behind Beck at this point last year.

Although the Saints drafted Louisville product Tyler Shough in the second round on Friday, they're expected to nab the top pick in next year's draft. New Orleans hasn't used a first-round pick on a QB since Archie Manning, Arch's grandfather, in 1971.

Another potential storyline in this scenario is Saints offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, the father of the aforementioned LSU signal-caller.

How Will Manning Fare As Texas' Starter?

For one, Manning is a more heralded prospect than Beck. When filling in for an injured Quinn Ewers last season, he led Texas to two wins. His most notable performance came against Mississippi State, completing 83.9% of his passes for 325 yards and two scores. Overall, Manning tallied a 67.9% completion rate with nine touchdowns through the air, two interceptions, and four scores on the ground.

Manning is also favored to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy at some shops. You can find the odds for Arch Manning and the rest of the field below.

Elsewhere, Texas has the second-best odds of winning the national title behind defending champ Ohio State. The Longhorns' best price is currently .

Early on, Manning's skill set must elevate his teammates. Texas returns 29% of its year-over-year offensive production, ranking 126th nationally. He'll open the season against the Buckeyes in Columbus. Months away from this highly anticipated matchup, the Longhorns are underdogs.

2025 Heisman trophy odds: arch manning favored

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