The Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) open their postseason at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) in the AFC Divisional playoffs. The game kicks Saturday afternoon at 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Jaguars at Chiefs odds feature KC as a spread favorite, with the Jaguars to win on the moneyline. The over/under currently sits at total points.
In this article we break down everything you need to know before betting the Jaguars at Chiefs odds, props, and injuries. We’ll also look at team matchups, key metrics, and the best available odds.
Jaguars At Chiefs Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under
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Jaguars At Chiefs Player Props
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Jaguars At Chiefs Betting News & Angles
Chiefs Vs. Jaguars Weather
A high temperature of 40 degrees Fahrenheit, with overcast clouds and 7 mph winds, are the expected conditions at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday (as of 10:25 AM on January 18).
Chiefs Vs. Jaguars Injury Report
Kansas City Injuries
|Player||Pos.||Injury||Status||Avg. Snap Count|
|Jody Fortson Jr.||TE||Elbow||Questionable||28.1|
|Player||Pos.||Injury||Status||Avg. Snap Count|
Chiefs Offense Vs. Jaguars Defense
|Chiefs Offense||Stats (Rank)||Jaguars Defense|
|29.2 (1)||Points/Gm||20.6 (12)|
|0.5 (1)||Points/Play||0.3 (1)|
|413.6 (1)||Yards/Gm||353.3 (24)|
|297.8 (1)||Pass Yards/Gm||238.5 (28)|
|115.9 (20)||Rush Yards/Gm||114.8 (12)|
|6.4 (1)||Yards/Play||5.4 (15)|
|7.8 (1)||Yards/Pass||6.7 (19)|
|4.7 (8)||Yards/Rush||4.2 (6)|
|48.7% (2)||3rd Down %||43.2% (29)|
|69.4% (2)||Red Zone %||59.6% (24)|
|23 (17)||Turnovers||27 (4)|
|26 (3)||Sacks||35 (25)|
Jaguars Offense Vs. Chiefs Defense
|Jaguars Offense||Stats (Rank)||Chiefs Defense|
|23.8 (10)||Points/Gm||21.7 (16)|
|0.4 (2)||Points/Play||0.3 (1)|
|357.4 (10)||Yards/Gm||328.2 (11)|
|232.9 (10)||Pass Yards/Gm||220.9 (18)|
|124.5 (14)||Rush Yards/Gm||107.2 (8)|
|5.7 (7)||Yards/Play||5.1 (7)|
|6.6 (13)||Yards/Pass||6.1 (6)|
|4.7 (8)||Yards/Rush||4.4 (15)|
|41.9% (9)||3rd Down %||38.3% (13)|
|53.4% (20)||Red Zone %||67.3% (31)|
|22 (14)||Turnovers||20 (20)|
|28 (5)||Sacks||55 (2)|
Why The Chiefs Can Cover The Spread
Just peeking at the box score might suggest that the November 13 game between these two teams was fairly close. In truth, it was a bizarre game. The first half featured 14 possessions plus a muffed kick by the Chiefs that, luckily for them, didn’t result in points for Jacksonville. The second half featured a grand total of six possessions, including a 17-play drive that lasted over nine minutes for the Jags, spanned just 58 yards, and resulted in a field goal.
Despite just scoring 27 points, the Chiefs punted twice on nine possessions.
To say it was one of their sloppier games is an understatement. They out-gained the Jaguars 7.8-5.2 and finished with zero penalties. For reference, the Chiefs averaged 7.4 yards per play against the Cardinals in Week 1 and scored 41 points. And they still beat the Jags by 10.
Remove the red zone fumble and muffed kick, and the Chiefs likely win this one going away. I’m personally not betting on those two outcomes again.
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Why The Jaguars Can Cover The Spread
It’s easy to say that this Jaguars team is not the same as the one in November. From that game on, Trevor Lawrence completed nearly 68% of his passes (64% before), threw 12 touchdowns to two interceptions (11:6 before), and the Jaguars won six of their last seven.
The market also resists when this number hits +9, settling in firmly at +8.5 throughout the week thus far.
However, back-to-back miracles coupled with a rest disadvantage in Arrowhead is not a proposition I’m personally betting.
Reasons To Bet The Over
Without that red zone fumble in November, the Chiefs score at least 34 points. Patrick Mahomes tossed four touchdowns, completing 26-of-35 passes for 331 yards. 7.8 yards per play resulting in just 27 points is an anomaly, so rolling the dice on a repeat offensive performance is a strong way to play the over. To say points were left on the table is an understatement.
The Jaguars run at the ninth-fastest pace in the NFL when trailing by seven or more while KC runs the seventh-fastest offense with a lead of seven or more. In a neutral script, the Chiefs run the third-fastest offense while the Jags run the ninth-fastest. You can play over the total based on pace alone here.
However, Chiefs games have gone over 53 points just once in regulation in their last six games.
Reasons To Bet The Under
This game features a high total that’s gone up from its 51.5 opening mark. Removed one asinine half against an imploding Chargers team, the Jaguars scored one offensive touchdown in six quarters.
Perhaps if this game gets off to a quick start with a lot of possessions in the first half and the number climbs higher than the pregame mark, you can play a live under. In second halves this year, the Jaguars’ pace drops to 16th while the Chiefs’ drops to 21st.
Jaguars At Chiefs Props: Matchups To Watch For
Travis Kelce Vs. Jaguars Defense: On the season, the Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends on just the 16th-most targets. The 13.2 yards per reception the Jags allow to the tight end is second behind only Seattle on the season. Last time out, Travis Kelce pulled in six catches for 81 yards and a score.
Kelce’s recorded at least 95 receiving yards in each of his last six playoff games. When Kansas City had to beat Buffalo in overtime in last year’s wild shootout, Kelce got the target. As a trusted receiver, Mahomes looks to Kelce first in big spots. Expect no different in this game.
Chris Jones Vs. Jaguars Interior OL: The interior of Jacksonville’s offensive line is its weak point. The three players– guards Brandon Scherff and Tyler Shatley as well as center Luke Fortner– allowed nine sacks and 62 pressures on the season. Enter Chris Jones, who’s been an absolute menace on the interior defensive line.
Jones originally started out on the edge, but the Chiefs moved him inside, where he’s wrecked game plans since 2019. This season, he has 15.5 sacks (t4th), 17 tackles for loss (t7th), 29 QB hits, and a career-high 44 tackles. The Jaguars lead in pressure allowed from the center (20.5%), followed by ninth from the left guard.
The Jaguars are undoubtably a favorite bet for many folks. They’re a fun story, battle-tested, and finally feature a good coach in Doug Pederson. The second-half Jags team rings fresh in the minds of most, and we all watched the Sunday Night Football win over the Titans.
That, I believe, is why this number is under -10. Recency bias. The Chiefs unanimously top our staff’s NFL power rankings for good reason. With a week’s rest against a team they dominated in every phase except the final score in November, this is a Jags letdown ready to happen.
Kansas City is one of three Wong Teaser candidates for this week (teasing a number through both key figures 7 and 3). I chose to pair them with the Eagles -7.5 for a Divisional Round teaser at Caesars Sportsbook (-120).
Best of luck betting the Jaguars at Chiefs odds in this game.