NFL Division Odds: Why I’m Betting NFC South Longshot Carolina Panthers

With the regular season fast approaching and NFL Week 1 odds already available at the best sports betting apps, I want to dive deep into NFC South odds. In past seasons, one team has often ascended from last in their division to first. The 2023 Houston Texans were last year’s squad that pulled off the feat. Here’s why I think Carolina Panthers odds are worth a small risk at prices that would result in an exciting payout.

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2024 Carolina PANTHERS Season Preview

The Panthers finished the 2023 campaign with an abysmal 2-15 record, the worst in the NFL. Atlanta slots in as the favorite to win the division () after bringing in veteran QB Kirk Cousins on a four-year contract.

Meanwhile, Carolina is hoping for a rebound campaign from QB Bryce Young. The Alabama product had a dreadful rookie campaign, in part because he was running for his life all season. He was sacked 62 times (second most in the NFL) behind an offensive line that finished 23rd in pass block win rate. Thus, revamping the line was on the offseason to-do list.

Dan Morgan did just that by bringing in Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt to solidify the interior. The left guard spot was particularly an issue last year as Cade Mays and Chandler Zavala combined for 54 pressures allowed. In fact, Zavala had the worst pass block grade (via PFF) of any guard in the NFL last year (min. 300 snaps). Should Lewis stay healthy, we should see drastic improvement from the line.

Additionally, Carolina reeled in Dave Canales as their new head coach, prying him away from their division rival Tampa Bay. With Canales as play caller, Baker Mayfield finished 10th in EPA in 2023. For reference, he was ahead of players such as Trevor Lawrence (16), Matt Stafford (13th), Stroud (12th).

Part of what made Canales successful last year was his emphasis on the running game and the use of more motion, play-action, and bootlegs to keep the defense honest. As far as rush attempts go, the Bucs averaged 25.4 per game last year, compared to 22.1 per contest (32nd) in 2022. Under Byron Leftwich in 2022, Tom Brady only utilized play action on 16.2% of his dropbacks. The arrival of Canales saw massive changes, as Baker Mayfield’s play action rate hit 23.9% (21st). Should Canales utilize the play action at a similar rate with Young, we should see second-year improvements.

Now, Liam Coen slots in as offensive coordinator for the Bucs, and as such, I’m skeptical of their offensive ceiling this season given that Coen has never called plays at the NFL level.

The loss of Brian Burns is a major one, but they added D.J. Wonnum, the former Vikings OLB to replace him. Jadeveon Clowney has also entered the fray, giving the defense potential to improve on their 17.2% pressure rate (30th). The defense could be in for more coverage sacks as well with Jaycee Horn back. Horn played in only six games last year because a hamstring tear suffered in Week 1.

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How Carolina Panthers Odds Fit WORST-TO-FIRST History

TheLines.com’s lead writer, Eli Hershkovich, recently noted the two-decade-long trend of NFL worst to first and ranked the 2024 candidates from No. 1 to No. 8. He can’t get there with the Panthers, but I can. First, a look back.

Houston was the lone team to accomplish this feat last season, with C.J. Stroud putting together an incredible rookie campaign and DeMeco Ryan supplanting Lovie Smith at head coach. Under Ryan’s watch the defense took a leap, finishing No. 16 in DVOA compared to 28th in 2022. As for the offense, Stroud was able to save them on that end as they ranked No. 30 in rush DVOA last season but finished No. 14 overall.

Whether it be offense or defense, drastic improvement needs to be made on one side of the ball to see a team catapult from worst-to-first. Like the Texans last year, the Bengals and Bears are two teams looking to see such changes, especially on offense, with Burrow healthy and Caleb Williams slotted in as the new QB for Chicago.

The Bears are particularly a hot topic of conversation given their massive offensive overhaul offseason. They added Williams in the draft and revamped the WR room with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in the draft. The coaching staff also underwent a change, moving on from Luke Getsy and bringing in Shane Waldron to replace him.

Related: Why You Should Buy Into the Bengals to win the AFC North and lock in NFL Week 1 promo codes now!

FINAL THOUGHTS ON NFC South ODDS

I’ll take a flyer on Carolina Panthers odds to secure the NFC South crown this season at +1300 for .25 units. The Bears and Bengals find themselves in stout divisions with better coaches and proven talent on the offense. Chicago also lacks aproven pass rusher opposite of Montez Sweat, so I remain skeptical of their ceiling. The Panthers conversely sit in a subpar division with a QB coming off an achilles injury and a Bucs squad that lost their OC. We know Dave Canales is a good play caller, and I’m optimistic he’ll be a good head coach as well.

Carolina’s win total sits at 5.5. Instead of taking the Over 5.5 wins, I’ve also decided to lock in their alt win total over 6.5 (+164) at FanDuel Sportsbook for one unit. Best of luck betting NFL division odds!