NFL Division Odds: Will Texans Overtake Jaguars In AFC South?
With five weeks in the NFL regular season, the race for a few division titles is still up in the air. With the NFC East potentially being decided and battles for the AFC and NFC South up in the air, partly due to injuries and subpar QBs, there’s plenty at stake. Hence, NFL division odds have value with NFL Week 14 odds underway.
NFC East odds
Surprisingly, Cowboys odds have a complicated path to the NFC East lead despite sitting atop the division with a win over the Eagles on Sunday night. Even if that comes to fruition, Philadelphia controls its own destiny.
That destiny, for what it’s worth? It seems fairly easy on paper. The Eagles’ Week 15 showdown in Seattle is their toughest game, as they end the regular season Giants-Cardinals-Giants in the last three weeks. The Cowboys, on the other hand? Bills-Dolphins-Lions the three weeks after this game, before finishing with the Commanders. Their chances of running the table, while real, are slim. It isn’t enough to win the NFC East, to boot.
The fact that the Eagles’ indefensible loss was against the Jets, while the Cowboys fell short versus an NFC team in the Cardinals, is the difference. However, losing this week won’t make the Cowboys the NFC East favorite — unless Philly stumbles against the cacophony of terrible teams down the stretch.
Conversely, Nick Sirianni’s team could win in Dallas and take a 2.5-game lead with four weeks left.
AFC North odds
This one isn’t that interesting, so let’s dispense with it quickly. The Ravens still have to take on the Dolphins and 49ers, meaning they may have five losses going into their Week 18 game against the Steelers. Having lost to them already, Pittsburgh could miraculously win the division by beating Baltimore. (The Ravens also play Jacksonville in Week 15, but whether that’s an arduous matchup depends on Trevor Lawrence’s availability, which is unknown.)
The problem is the Steelers probably won’t be at six losses by then. They’ve already accrued that amount, and they’re at best coinflips the next three weeks. Pittsburgh will also likely be an underdog to both Indianapolis and Seattle.
Cleveland is theoretically alive, but with its putrid QB situation, it’s liable to lose every game from now till the end of the season.
AFC South odds
These divisional odds are almost entirely an injury play. If Trevor Lawrence misses considerable time, this race gets interesting. Houston will be favored in the next four weeks, battling the Jets-Titans-Browns-Titans. On the flip side, the Jaguars face the Browns this week and then play Baltimore, with either no Lawrence or a much-hobbled one. If they lose those two games, they could find themselves in second place with a snap of the fingers.
The Colts have a nominally easy schedule until they play Houston in Week 18. Nevertheless, the inconsistent Gardner Minshew is at the helm. In the middle third of the league in both offense and defense, the Colts could win all of their contests against the Bengals, Steelers, Falcons, and Raiders, but they could also go 0-4.
I’ve bet the Texans here at . Lawrence’s injury seemingly translates into Jacksonville being 8-6 in two weeks. If that’s the case, then the Texans have the driver’s seat. That said, a tie, likely at 11-5, would be a break for the Jaguars. Therefore, the Texans have to run the table to win it. But frankly, with their Charmin soft schedule, they probably do.
NFC South Odds
Fire this division into the sun.
Look, are we sure this division needs a ticket to the postseason? Why can’t it declare force majeure and give it to Buffalo? Would anyone actually object?
If Roger Goodell doesn’t listen to this plea, the NFC South appears to be headed for a two-way battle. Tampa Bay, while 5-7, has to play in Atlanta, at Green Bay, and then against Jacksonville for the next three weeks (by which point Trevor Lawrence should be cleared to play).
Should it drop these three games, they’re functionally out of the race.
The Falcons are favorites to beat the Buccaneers, and rightfully so. Then, they head to Carolina before playing three tough games against Indianapolis, Chicago, and New Orleans.
The Saints, on the other hand? They face the Panthers, Giants, and Bucs before hosting the Falcons. That’s a path to nine wins. Given the entire division sucks, I’ve bet the Saints at . The more sizable plus money, with such a weak favorite, is a good bet every time.
Best of luck betting on your NFL division odds!
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